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The data behind the ratings

Sunday 18 October 2026 · everything below is a stored value, as it was that morning

PEC Zwolle v GO Ahead Eagles

eredivisie · 10:15 UK

Finished 4–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	16	8
Position last season	15	12
Points this season	4	11
Goal difference this season	-15	+2
Elo rating going in	1,473	1,557
Matches on record, all seasons	446	282
Recent form
Points, last 5	1	4
Goals scored, last 5	0.6	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	3.2	2.6
Goals scored, last 10	0.8	2.1
Goals conceded, last 10	2.6	2.3
Clean sheets, last 10	1	0
Failed to score, last 10	5	0
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	4
Losses in a row	3	0
Days since last match	7	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	0.2	2.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	3.0	2.0
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.8	15.4
Shots on target, last 5	3.6	5.8
Shots per possession	0.219	0.249
On-target shots per possession	0.069	0.101
Inside-box shots per possession	0.128	0.165
Share of shots from inside the box	56.3%	68.4%
Expected goals, last 5	1.52	1.58
Possession, last 5	45.6%	57.0%
Corners, last 5	5.2	6.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.324	0.410
On-target allowed per possession	0.116	0.125
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.210	0.265
Opponents' inside-box share	65.2%	62.3%
Save rate	63.6%	65.0%
Saves, last 5	3.6	3.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.44	2.20
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	70.0%	83.0%
Passes, last 5	386	485
Fouls, last 5	12.8	6.4
Cards, last 5	1.6	0.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	14
Home side won	3
Drawn	4
Away side won	7
Goals, home side	16
Goals, away side	24

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 25.8% · Draw 25.2% · Away 49.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Kasımpaşa v Samsunspor

super-lig · 10:30 UK

Finished 4–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	9	16
Position last season	13	7
Points this season	10	4
Goal difference this season	+0	-9
Elo rating going in	1,607	1,618
Matches on record, all seasons	501	149
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	0
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	0.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	2.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.9
Clean sheets, last 10	3	2
Failed to score, last 10	1	5
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	5
Days since last match	9	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.8	15.0
Shots on target, last 5	3.6	3.2
Shots per possession	0.256	0.238
On-target shots per possession	0.083	0.071
Inside-box shots per possession	0.134	0.140
Share of shots from inside the box	53.0%	56.3%
Expected goals, last 5	0.97	0.79
Possession, last 5	44.2%	57.6%
Corners, last 5	4.2	5.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.236	0.380
On-target allowed per possession	0.081	0.137
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.152	0.259
Opponents' inside-box share	63.2%	67.1%
Save rate	72.7%	67.1%
Saves, last 5	3.8	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.36	1.46
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	77.8%	87.2%
Passes, last 5	359	549
Fouls, last 5	14.8	14.4
Cards, last 5	3.2	0.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	2
Drawn	1
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	6
Goals, away side	9

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 39.3% · Draw 28.1% · Away 32.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Udinese v Lecce

serie-a · 10:30 UK

Finished 0–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	15	12
Position last season	10	17
Points this season	4	6
Goal difference this season	-4	-6
Elo rating going in	1,565	1,522
Matches on record, all seasons	614	272
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	3
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	2.4	2.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	1.6
Clean sheets, last 10	2	2
Failed to score, last 10	3	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	4	2
Days since last match	6	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Scored away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.8	9.8
Shots on target, last 5	4.4	3.4
Shots per possession	0.277	0.259
On-target shots per possession	0.100	0.111
Inside-box shots per possession	0.185	0.180
Share of shots from inside the box	67.0%	68.8%
Expected goals, last 5	1.07	0.75
Possession, last 5	50.0%	44.2%
Corners, last 5	5.0	4.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.274	0.251
On-target allowed per possession	0.094	0.110
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.160	0.183
Opponents' inside-box share	55.9%	74.8%
Save rate	67.2%	71.0%
Saves, last 5	3.4	4.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.07	2.25
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	83.5%	78.8%
Passes, last 5	473	386
Fouls, last 5	10.6	13.6
Cards, last 5	1.8	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	14
Home side won	8
Drawn	2
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	20
Goals, away side	12

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 52.5% · Draw 26.6% · Away 20.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

AD Ceuta FC v Oviedo

laliga-2 · 12:00 UK

Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	21	8
Position last season	9	20
Points this season	5	14
Goal difference this season	-12	+2
Elo rating going in	1,431	1,506
Matches on record, all seasons	51	433
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	9
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	0.9	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	2.0	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	1	5
Failed to score, last 10	3	4
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	8	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.0	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.6	0.4
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.8	13.6
Shots on target, last 5	4.4	5.0
Shots per possession	0.267	0.293
On-target shots per possession	0.074	0.087
Inside-box shots per possession	0.180	0.164
Share of shots from inside the box	65.1%	53.8%
Expected goals, last 5	0.95	1.60
Possession, last 5	51.6%	46.4%
Corners, last 5	5.6	5.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.236	0.265
On-target allowed per possession	0.084	0.083
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.154	0.168
Opponents' inside-box share	63.2%	62.0%
Save rate	57.5%	70.4%
Saves, last 5	1.6	3.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.45	1.55
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	400	380
Fouls, last 5	12.2	12.0
Cards, last 5	2.2	3.2

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 30.2% · Draw 28.5% · Away 41.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Osasuna v Racing Santander

la-liga · 12:00 UK

Finished 2–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	15	15
Position last season	16	1
Points this season	8	8
Goal difference this season	-10	-10
Elo rating going in	1,564	1,554
Matches on record, all seasons	548	296
Recent form
Points, last 5	1	4
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	3.4	3.6
Goals scored, last 10	0.9	1.8
Goals conceded, last 10	2.1	2.5
Clean sheets, last 10	2	0
Failed to score, last 10	4	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	3.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	8.4	11.2
Shots on target, last 5	3.6	5.4
Shots per possession	0.226	0.277
On-target shots per possession	0.091	0.113
Inside-box shots per possession	0.149	0.170
Share of shots from inside the box	67.4%	65.0%
Expected goals, last 5	2.00	1.35
Possession, last 5	45.4%	50.4%
Corners, last 5	2.6	4.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.228	0.304
On-target allowed per possession	0.077	0.123
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.126	0.191
Opponents' inside-box share	51.7%	62.0%
Save rate	56.1%	60.6%
Saves, last 5	2.8	4.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.96	1.71
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	388	457
Fouls, last 5	13.8	13.4
Cards, last 5	2.8	3.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	2
Drawn	0
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	8
Goals, away side	9

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 48.4% · Draw 25.7% · Away 25.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Cambuur v AZ Alkmaar

eredivisie · 12:30 UK

Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	12	3
Position last season	—	7
Points this season	8	19
Goal difference this season	-8	+10
Elo rating going in	1,380	1,667
Matches on record, all seasons	180	557
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	10
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	2.2
Goals conceded, last 10	2.1	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	2	3
Failed to score, last 10	2	1
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	4	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	7	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	2.0
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	1.2
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.0	17.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	6.2
Shots per possession	0.280	0.302
On-target shots per possession	0.091	0.117
Inside-box shots per possession	0.188	0.200
Share of shots from inside the box	69.5%	67.7%
Expected goals, last 5	0.68	1.72
Possession, last 5	44.4%	58.6%
Corners, last 5	3.2	6.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.291	0.232
On-target allowed per possession	0.117	0.088
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.200	0.147
Opponents' inside-box share	67.9%	64.5%
Save rate	65.4%	66.1%
Saves, last 5	3.6	1.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.41	2.02
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	81.0%	83.0%
Passes, last 5	350	555
Fouls, last 5	14.2	11.6
Cards, last 5	2.4	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	10
Home side won	0
Drawn	3
Away side won	7
Goals, home side	6
Goals, away side	17

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 16.4% · Draw 19.4% · Away 64.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Angers v Marseille

ligue-1 · 13:00 UK

Finished 2–5. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	11	13
Position last season	13	5
Points this season	7	6
Goal difference this season	-3	+1
Elo rating going in	1,479	1,634
Matches on record, all seasons	368	592
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	3
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.0	1.4
Goals conceded, last 10	1.8	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	2	3
Failed to score, last 10	3	3
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	8	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	0.6
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	1.2
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.8	11.4
Shots on target, last 5	3.2	3.8
Shots per possession	0.266	0.267
On-target shots per possession	0.066	0.101
Inside-box shots per possession	0.183	0.180
Share of shots from inside the box	69.3%	68.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.54	1.29
Possession, last 5	49.0%	55.6%
Corners, last 5	7.0	4.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.316	0.349
On-target allowed per possession	0.126	0.112
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.208	0.253
Opponents' inside-box share	65.6%	72.3%
Save rate	72.7%	69.5%
Saves, last 5	4.8	4.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.59	1.31
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	80.0%	91.0%
Passes, last 5	418	572
Fouls, last 5	10.8	11.4
Cards, last 5	1.8	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	20
Home side won	2
Drawn	9
Away side won	9
Goals, home side	20
Goals, away side	38

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 27.2% · Draw 25.2% · Away 47.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Bournemouth v Sunderland

premier-league · 13:00 UK

Finished 2–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	17	16
Position last season	6	7
Points this season	3	4
Goal difference this season	-6	-6
Elo rating going in	1,747	1,664
Matches on record, all seasons	626	681
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	4
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	2.2	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	2	2
Failed to score, last 10	1	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	2	3
Days since last match	8	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.4	13.4
Shots on target, last 5	5.2	4.8
Shots per possession	0.263	0.274
On-target shots per possession	0.095	0.090
Inside-box shots per possession	0.150	0.186
Share of shots from inside the box	58.9%	65.4%
Expected goals, last 5	1.83	1.22
Possession, last 5	52.6%	48.4%
Corners, last 5	5.0	4.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.227	0.241
On-target allowed per possession	0.080	0.070
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.155	0.150
Opponents' inside-box share	69.7%	61.7%
Save rate	58.8%	61.2%
Saves, last 5	1.6	1.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.44	0.96
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	82.0%	83.0%
Passes, last 5	426	390
Fouls, last 5	12.8	11.8
Cards, last 5	3.2	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	2
Drawn	2
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	8
Goals, away side	7

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 45.2% · Draw 28.0% · Away 26.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Brighton v Crystal Palace

premier-league · 13:00 UK

Finished 5–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	3	12
Position last season	8	15
Points this season	13	7
Goal difference this season	+13	-3
Elo rating going in	1,773	1,695
Matches on record, all seasons	630	595
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	7
Goals scored, last 5	2.8	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	2.2	1.4
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	2.1
Clean sheets, last 10	5	1
Failed to score, last 10	2	3
Wins in a row	3	1
Unbeaten run	4	2
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	8	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.4
Scored away, last 5 there	2.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	17.4	11.0
Shots on target, last 5	5.4	4.2
Shots per possession	0.280	0.274
On-target shots per possession	0.087	0.098
Inside-box shots per possession	0.184	0.200
Share of shots from inside the box	67.8%	74.3%
Expected goals, last 5	1.35	1.49
Possession, last 5	57.6%	40.2%
Corners, last 5	5.4	3.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.303	0.296
On-target allowed per possession	0.106	0.096
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.232	0.218
Opponents' inside-box share	71.0%	73.0%
Save rate	69.6%	63.1%
Saves, last 5	3.0	3.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.83	2.21
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	88.0%	82.0%
Passes, last 5	477	371
Fouls, last 5	13.0	8.8
Cards, last 5	2.4	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	24
Home side won	5
Drawn	10
Away side won	9
Goals, home side	26
Goals, away side	30

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 63.9% · Draw 20.4% · Away 15.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Fiorentina v Como

serie-a · 13:00 UK

Finished 1–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	18	6
Position last season	13	4
Points this season	4	11
Goal difference this season	-7	+3
Elo rating going in	1,602	1,721
Matches on record, all seasons	614	82
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	10
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.0	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.9	0.7
Clean sheets, last 10	2	4
Failed to score, last 10	4	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	8	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	17.6	23.0
Shots on target, last 5	5.4	6.8
Shots per possession	0.297	0.317
On-target shots per possession	0.097	0.098
Inside-box shots per possession	0.189	0.207
Share of shots from inside the box	63.2%	66.3%
Expected goals, last 5	1.79	1.99
Possession, last 5	48.4%	63.0%
Corners, last 5	4.6	7.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.260	0.297
On-target allowed per possession	0.105	0.072
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.181	0.192
Opponents' inside-box share	69.1%	66.5%
Save rate	68.0%	71.0%
Saves, last 5	2.6	2.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.16	1.42
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	82.3%	89.0%
Passes, last 5	396	608
Fouls, last 5	10.8	7.0
Cards, last 5	2.0	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	2
Drawn	0
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	5
Goals, away side	5

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 27.6% · Draw 26.4% · Away 46.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Kocaelispor v Göztepe

super-lig · 13:00 UK

Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	6	15
Position last season	11	6
Points this season	12	6
Goal difference this season	+2	+0
Elo rating going in	1,601	1,617
Matches on record, all seasons	41	257
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	5
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	2.4
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	2.2
Goals scored, last 10	0.9	1.8
Goals conceded, last 10	0.9	2.0
Clean sheets, last 10	3	1
Failed to score, last 10	4	2
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	3
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	7	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	0.6	2.2
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	2.2
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.2	17.4
Shots on target, last 5	4.6	5.8
Shots per possession	0.220	0.457
On-target shots per possession	0.067	0.139
Inside-box shots per possession	0.133	0.340
Share of shots from inside the box	59.6%	75.0%
Expected goals, last 5	1.02	2.36
Possession, last 5	46.4%	40.8%
Corners, last 5	3.8	4.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.298	0.252
On-target allowed per possession	0.072	0.082
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.160	0.178
Opponents' inside-box share	50.2%	68.7%
Save rate	75.3%	61.9%
Saves, last 5	3.8	3.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.57	1.73
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	80.8%	73.2%
Passes, last 5	407	287
Fouls, last 5	12.6	14.4
Cards, last 5	1.6	3.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	0
Drawn	2
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	1
Goals, away side	1

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 32.1% · Draw 29.3% · Away 38.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Leeds v Manchester United

premier-league · 13:00 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	5	12
Position last season	14	3
Points this season	9	6
Goal difference this season	+3	+0
Elo rating going in	1,734	1,783
Matches on record, all seasons	669	614
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	6
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	1.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.0	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	3	2
Failed to score, last 10	2	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	2
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	8	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.4	20.8
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	5.6
Shots per possession	0.270	0.371
On-target shots per possession	0.088	0.107
Inside-box shots per possession	0.172	0.230
Share of shots from inside the box	62.8%	60.3%
Expected goals, last 5	1.10	2.73
Possession, last 5	44.8%	54.4%
Corners, last 5	4.8	6.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.267	0.250
On-target allowed per possession	0.094	0.091
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.178	0.176
Opponents' inside-box share	63.6%	68.2%
Save rate	75.3%	70.0%
Saves, last 5	4.2	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.11	1.84
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	76.0%	89.0%
Passes, last 5	367	527
Fouls, last 5	11.8	10.6
Cards, last 5	2.0	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	8
Home side won	1
Drawn	3
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	10
Goals, away side	21

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 41.3% · Draw 26.7% · Away 31.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Bayer Leverkusen v SC Freiburg

bundesliga · 13:30 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	4	1
Position last season	6	7
Points this season	10	13
Goal difference this season	+6	+10
Elo rating going in	1,717	1,618
Matches on record, all seasons	549	515
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	13
Goals scored, last 5	2.8	2.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	2.3	2.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.6	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	2	2
Failed to score, last 10	0	1
Wins in a row	2	1
Unbeaten run	4	6
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	8	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	3.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Scored away, last 5 there	2.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	21.2	17.2
Shots on target, last 5	6.4	6.0
Shots per possession	0.339	0.271
On-target shots per possession	0.113	0.098
Inside-box shots per possession	0.253	0.176
Share of shots from inside the box	72.9%	64.5%
Expected goals, last 5	1.82	1.58
Possession, last 5	59.6%	53.0%
Corners, last 5	8.0	5.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.355	0.231
On-target allowed per possession	0.132	0.065
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.234	0.154
Opponents' inside-box share	63.4%	70.2%
Save rate	64.4%	60.9%
Saves, last 5	2.0	1.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.02	0.43
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	88.0%	89.0%
Passes, last 5	549	457
Fouls, last 5	12.4	10.4
Cards, last 5	1.6	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	30
Home side won	14
Drawn	10
Away side won	6
Goals, home side	50
Goals, away side	32

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 57.3% · Draw 21.1% · Away 21.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Celtic v Heart Of Midlothian

scottish-prem · 14:00 UK

Finished 7–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	3
Position last season	1	2
Points this season	21	16
Goal difference this season	+12	+11
Elo rating going in	1,802	1,671
Matches on record, all seasons	603	528
Recent form
Points, last 5	12	10
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	2.4
Goals conceded, last 5	0.4	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	2.2	2.3
Goals conceded, last 10	0.7	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	4	3
Failed to score, last 10	1	0
Wins in a row	1	1
Unbeaten run	1	2
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	3.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.4
Scored away, last 5 there	2.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	19.0	16.6
Shots on target, last 5	9.0	5.0
Shots per possession	0.315	0.309
On-target shots per possession	0.135	0.099
Inside-box shots per possession	0.227	0.206
Share of shots from inside the box	71.2%	66.7%
Expected goals, last 5	2.88	3.51
Possession, last 5	58.4%	54.8%
Corners, last 5	10.6	7.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.283	0.187
On-target allowed per possession	0.094	0.045
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.180	0.135
Opponents' inside-box share	65.5%	71.6%
Save rate	75.3%	62.0%
Saves, last 5	3.6	1.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.09	0.74
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	611	488
Fouls, last 5	10.8	13.2
Cards, last 5	1.6	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	51
Home side won	39
Drawn	3
Away side won	9
Goals, home side	125
Goals, away side	44

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 59.5% · Draw 20.1% · Away 20.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Celta Vigo v Alaves

la-liga · 14:15 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	9	6
Position last season	6	14
Points this season	8	11
Goal difference this season	+2	+4
Elo rating going in	1,618	1,585
Matches on record, all seasons	540	396
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	4
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	0.4	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.0	1.4
Goals conceded, last 10	0.7	1.0
Clean sheets, last 10	5	4
Failed to score, last 10	4	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	5	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	7	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	0.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.0	10.6
Shots on target, last 5	3.8	4.2
Shots per possession	0.190	0.285
On-target shots per possession	0.064	0.102
Inside-box shots per possession	0.096	0.170
Share of shots from inside the box	47.3%	55.3%
Expected goals, last 5	0.69	1.13
Possession, last 5	48.0%	40.0%
Corners, last 5	2.8	2.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.274	0.212
On-target allowed per possession	0.082	0.073
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.159	0.124
Opponents' inside-box share	56.1%	61.1%
Save rate	76.5%	74.1%
Saves, last 5	2.8	3.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.74	2.14
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	85.0%	—
Passes, last 5	469	338
Fouls, last 5	12.8	12.4
Cards, last 5	2.2	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	18
Home side won	9
Drawn	3
Away side won	6
Goals, home side	29
Goals, away side	20

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 43.4% · Draw 29.1% · Away 27.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Granada CF v Cadiz

laliga-2 · 14:15 UK

Finished 2–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	9	20
Position last season	14	18
Points this season	14	7
Goal difference this season	+1	+0
Elo rating going in	1,446	1,361
Matches on record, all seasons	599	415
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	4
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	3	2
Failed to score, last 10	2	3
Wins in a row	2	0
Unbeaten run	2	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	6	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	17.0	13.0
Shots on target, last 5	4.4	4.0
Shots per possession	0.304	0.202
On-target shots per possession	0.086	0.058
Inside-box shots per possession	0.192	0.133
Share of shots from inside the box	62.1%	66.7%
Expected goals, last 5	2.32	0.56
Possession, last 5	52.4%	52.8%
Corners, last 5	5.8	4.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.272	0.281
On-target allowed per possession	0.117	0.091
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.154	0.192
Opponents' inside-box share	57.0%	67.0%
Save rate	70.8%	69.5%
Saves, last 5	4.8	2.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.14	0.71
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	408	457
Fouls, last 5	12.0	11.0
Cards, last 5	2.2	3.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	14
Home side won	3
Drawn	7
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	9
Goals, away side	9

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 50.3% · Draw 27.8% · Away 22.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Groningen v Ajax

eredivisie · 14:45 UK

Finished 2–5. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	6	5
Position last season	9	5
Points this season	14	15
Goal difference this season	+6	+12
Elo rating going in	1,550	1,698
Matches on record, all seasons	528	545
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	8
Goals scored, last 5	2.6	2.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	2.2	2.4
Goals conceded, last 10	1.7	1.0
Clean sheets, last 10	1	4
Failed to score, last 10	1	1
Wins in a row	2	0
Unbeaten run	4	4
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Scored away, last 5 there	2.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.6	26.0
Shots on target, last 5	4.8	8.4
Shots per possession	0.279	0.348
On-target shots per possession	0.111	0.116
Inside-box shots per possession	0.191	0.238
Share of shots from inside the box	67.2%	67.1%
Expected goals, last 5	2.12	1.86
Possession, last 5	51.2%	66.2%
Corners, last 5	5.2	7.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.280	0.248
On-target allowed per possession	0.096	0.097
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.202	0.173
Opponents' inside-box share	70.2%	68.3%
Save rate	66.2%	70.9%
Saves, last 5	2.4	1.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.34	1.11
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	87.0%	—
Passes, last 5	454	639
Fouls, last 5	8.2	7.6
Cards, last 5	1.2	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	31
Home side won	5
Drawn	4
Away side won	22
Goals, home side	25
Goals, away side	62

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 27.5% · Draw 21.9% · Away 50.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Le Havre v Auxerre

ligue-1 · 15:15 UK

Finished 1–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	18	15
Position last season	14	15
Points this season	2	6
Goal difference this season	-4	-8
Elo rating going in	1,489	1,518
Matches on record, all seasons	108	190
Recent form
Points, last 5	2	6
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	2.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	1.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	2.1
Clean sheets, last 10	2	2
Failed to score, last 10	4	0
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	2	1
Days since last match	8	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	1.6
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	3.0
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	16.0	12.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.6	5.2
Shots per possession	0.264	0.262
On-target shots per possession	0.087	0.115
Inside-box shots per possession	0.169	0.159
Share of shots from inside the box	67.0%	57.9%
Expected goals, last 5	1.01	1.53
Possession, last 5	49.0%	44.6%
Corners, last 5	5.2	5.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.245	0.244
On-target allowed per possession	0.090	0.105
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.151	0.175
Opponents' inside-box share	60.2%	71.9%
Save rate	71.6%	61.4%
Saves, last 5	3.0	3.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.48	2.12
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	83.0%	87.0%
Passes, last 5	407	376
Fouls, last 5	14.6	12.6
Cards, last 5	1.8	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	3
Drawn	1
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	7
Goals, away side	3

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 41.9% · Draw 28.1% · Away 30.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Lorient v Monaco

ligue-1 · 15:15 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	8	1
Position last season	10	7
Points this season	8	14
Goal difference this season	+0	+5
Elo rating going in	1,551	1,690
Matches on record, all seasons	454	516
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	11
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	1.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	4	2
Failed to score, last 10	2	1
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	1	6
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	8	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.2	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.8	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.0	10.4
Shots on target, last 5	3.8	4.0
Shots per possession	0.225	0.227
On-target shots per possession	0.089	0.092
Inside-box shots per possession	0.149	0.133
Share of shots from inside the box	65.1%	59.6%
Expected goals, last 5	0.84	1.37
Possession, last 5	48.0%	46.6%
Corners, last 5	2.4	3.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.238	0.282
On-target allowed per possession	0.074	0.084
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.159	0.165
Opponents' inside-box share	65.4%	58.9%
Save rate	71.1%	67.2%
Saves, last 5	3.2	3.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.28	1.35
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	88.0%	87.0%
Passes, last 5	500	490
Fouls, last 5	9.4	10.6
Cards, last 5	1.2	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	20
Home side won	6
Drawn	6
Away side won	8
Goals, home side	28
Goals, away side	38

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 25.6% · Draw 28.6% · Away 45.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Paris FC v Rennes

ligue-1 · 15:15 UK

Finished 4–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	4	3
Position last season	11	6
Points this season	11	13
Goal difference this season	+4	+2
Elo rating going in	1,611	1,655
Matches on record, all seasons	40	592
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	12
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	1.9
Goals conceded, last 10	0.8	1.9
Clean sheets, last 10	4	1
Failed to score, last 10	4	1
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	8	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.6	18.6
Shots on target, last 5	5.0	6.8
Shots per possession	0.280	0.309
On-target shots per possession	0.098	0.109
Inside-box shots per possession	0.193	0.205
Share of shots from inside the box	67.0%	65.3%
Expected goals, last 5	1.87	2.63
Possession, last 5	50.8%	56.4%
Corners, last 5	4.4	7.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.190	0.371
On-target allowed per possession	0.060	0.136
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.124	0.242
Opponents' inside-box share	65.9%	61.6%
Save rate	69.4%	67.5%
Saves, last 5	2.2	3.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.58	2.38
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	89.0%	85.0%
Passes, last 5	571	511
Fouls, last 5	13.6	14.2
Cards, last 5	2.4	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	0
Drawn	0
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	1
Goals, away side	3

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 42.3% · Draw 28.7% · Away 29.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Borussia Mönchengladbach v 1899 Hoffenheim

bundesliga · 15:30 UK

Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	18	17
Position last season	12	5
Points this season	0	3
Goal difference this season	-11	-4
Elo rating going in	1,496	1,569
Matches on record, all seasons	549	549
Recent form
Points, last 5	0	3
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	3.6	2.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	1.7
Goals conceded, last 10	2.2	2.2
Clean sheets, last 10	3	1
Failed to score, last 10	3	1
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	5	2
Days since last match	7	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Scored away, last 5 there	0.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	16.2	18.6
Shots on target, last 5	4.8	4.8
Shots per possession	0.273	0.305
On-target shots per possession	0.089	0.094
Inside-box shots per possession	0.186	0.181
Share of shots from inside the box	68.2%	58.8%
Expected goals, last 5	1.04	1.42
Possession, last 5	48.8%	58.4%
Corners, last 5	6.6	6.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.313	0.309
On-target allowed per possession	0.144	0.105
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.223	0.216
Opponents' inside-box share	71.3%	71.5%
Save rate	68.5%	57.3%
Saves, last 5	5.4	2.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.65	1.49
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	86.0%	86.0%
Passes, last 5	405	511
Fouls, last 5	15.2	13.4
Cards, last 5	3.0	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	32
Home side won	13
Drawn	10
Away side won	9
Goals, home side	71
Goals, away side	54

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 31.1% · Draw 23.7% · Away 45.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Nottingham Forest v Arsenal

premier-league · 15:30 UK

Finished 0–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	14	2
Position last season	16	1
Points this season	5	15
Goal difference this season	-3	+5
Elo rating going in	1,689	1,932
Matches on record, all seasons	667	614
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	12
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	1.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	0.6
Clean sheets, last 10	1	6
Failed to score, last 10	3	1
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	2	0
Days since last match	7	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.4
Scored away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	18.8	11.6
Shots on target, last 5	4.2	4.8
Shots per possession	0.328	0.238
On-target shots per possession	0.093	0.091
Inside-box shots per possession	0.222	0.170
Share of shots from inside the box	69.5%	71.7%
Expected goals, last 5	2.64	1.85
Possession, last 5	47.6%	58.4%
Corners, last 5	4.4	4.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.284	0.235
On-target allowed per possession	0.089	0.064
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.174	0.133
Opponents' inside-box share	61.8%	54.4%
Save rate	70.3%	71.0%
Saves, last 5	2.6	2.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.02	0.53
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	69.0%	88.0%
Passes, last 5	391	480
Fouls, last 5	14.0	10.6
Cards, last 5	2.6	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	8
Home side won	1
Drawn	2
Away side won	5
Goals, home side	3
Goals, away side	15

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 15.8% · Draw 25.4% · Away 58.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

AC Milan v Atalanta

serie-a · 16:00 UK

Finished 3–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	4	10
Position last season	5	7
Points this season	12	9
Goal difference this season	+6	+0
Elo rating going in	1,732	1,690
Matches on record, all seasons	614	576
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	6
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	2	2
Failed to score, last 10	1	3
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	6	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.2	13.4
Shots on target, last 5	4.6	4.2
Shots per possession	0.229	0.290
On-target shots per possession	0.084	0.100
Inside-box shots per possession	0.161	0.195
Share of shots from inside the box	67.2%	67.4%
Expected goals, last 5	1.59	1.07
Possession, last 5	60.6%	44.4%
Corners, last 5	3.0	3.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.246	0.304
On-target allowed per possession	0.096	0.107
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.163	0.185
Opponents' inside-box share	67.7%	60.3%
Save rate	70.4%	78.2%
Saves, last 5	3.2	4.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.08	1.57
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	90.0%	89.3%
Passes, last 5	588	460
Fouls, last 5	10.6	10.6
Cards, last 5	2.2	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	30
Home side won	10
Drawn	9
Away side won	11
Goals, home side	38
Goals, away side	37

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 53.0% · Draw 25.5% · Away 21.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Başakşehir v Gaziantep FK

super-lig · 16:00 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	11	12
Position last season	5	12
Points this season	8	8
Goal difference this season	-1	-3
Elo rating going in	1,680	1,547
Matches on record, all seasons	507	263
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	4
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	0.9
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	1.6
Clean sheets, last 10	4	2
Failed to score, last 10	2	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	2	0
Losses in a row	0	2
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.2	14.5
Shots on target, last 5	3.4	3.8
Shots per possession	0.259	0.270
On-target shots per possession	0.081	0.072
Inside-box shots per possession	0.167	0.160
Share of shots from inside the box	61.0%	59.4%
Expected goals, last 5	1.23	1.24
Possession, last 5	53.8%	53.0%
Corners, last 5	4.4	5.5
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.266	0.294
On-target allowed per possession	0.090	0.090
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.147	0.209
Opponents' inside-box share	52.7%	68.0%
Save rate	69.8%	63.2%
Saves, last 5	1.8	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.53	1.93
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	83.8%	80.8%
Passes, last 5	468	438
Fouls, last 5	11.0	9.5
Cards, last 5	2.0	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	14
Home side won	9
Drawn	1
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	25
Goals, away side	14

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 58.7% · Draw 22.0% · Away 19.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Girona v FC Andorra

laliga-2 · 16:30 UK

Finished 2–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	6	16
Position last season	19	13
Points this season	15	9
Goal difference this season	+6	-2
Elo rating going in	1,567	1,426
Matches on record, all seasons	417	134
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	6
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.0	1.8
Clean sheets, last 10	3	1
Failed to score, last 10	1	4
Wins in a row	0	2
Unbeaten run	4	2
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	6	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.8	14.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.8	5.6
Shots per possession	0.274	0.269
On-target shots per possession	0.103	0.094
Inside-box shots per possession	0.160	0.167
Share of shots from inside the box	57.6%	61.7%
Expected goals, last 5	1.13	2.63
Possession, last 5	51.0%	56.0%
Corners, last 5	3.8	5.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.242	0.260
On-target allowed per possession	0.078	0.095
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.152	0.160
Opponents' inside-box share	63.1%	60.7%
Save rate	75.7%	59.4%
Saves, last 5	4.0	2.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.76	0.72
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	438	447
Fouls, last 5	10.8	19.2
Cards, last 5	2.6	3.6

Malaga v Real Sociedad

la-liga · 16:30 UK

Finished 2–5. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	19	6
Position last season	4	10
Points this season	4	13
Goal difference this season	-9	-3
Elo rating going in	1,524	1,616
Matches on record, all seasons	612	616
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	10
Goals scored, last 5	0.6	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	0.6	1.6
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	2.0
Clean sheets, last 10	2	1
Failed to score, last 10	5	3
Wins in a row	0	2
Unbeaten run	1	2
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	9	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	0.6	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.0	2.0
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.6	14.0
Shots on target, last 5	3.4	4.8
Shots per possession	0.206	0.256
On-target shots per possession	0.053	0.098
Inside-box shots per possession	0.121	0.156
Share of shots from inside the box	61.4%	60.2%
Expected goals, last 5	0.77	1.53
Possession, last 5	53.4%	46.6%
Corners, last 5	6.4	7.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.281	0.315
On-target allowed per possession	0.107	0.125
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.161	0.195
Opponents' inside-box share	56.6%	61.0%
Save rate	70.4%	71.0%
Saves, last 5	3.6	4.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.14	2.00
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	477	426
Fouls, last 5	13.6	12.4
Cards, last 5	3.2	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	16
Home side won	5
Drawn	5
Away side won	6
Goals, home side	21
Goals, away side	20

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 27.9% · Draw 27.3% · Away 44.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Valladolid v Eldense

laliga-2 · 16:30 UK

Finished 2–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	9	11
Position last season	16	—
Points this season	12	11
Goal difference this season	+2	-1
Elo rating going in	1,403	1,409
Matches on record, all seasons	489	93
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	9
Goals scored, last 5	2.2	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	2	2
Failed to score, last 10	4	4
Wins in a row	1	2
Unbeaten run	4	2
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	6	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.8	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.2	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.0	14.8
Shots on target, last 5	5.6	5.0
Shots per possession	0.250	0.249
On-target shots per possession	0.097	0.080
Inside-box shots per possession	0.163	0.132
Share of shots from inside the box	62.9%	53.0%
Expected goals, last 5	2.96	2.87
Possession, last 5	50.2%	51.6%
Corners, last 5	4.0	6.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.264	0.198
On-target allowed per possession	0.083	0.078
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.144	0.132
Opponents' inside-box share	53.7%	69.4%
Save rate	69.5%	69.5%
Saves, last 5	2.6	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.73	1.41
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	395	457
Fouls, last 5	15.8	13.0
Cards, last 5	3.0	2.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	2
Drawn	0
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	2
Goals, away side	0

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 50.8% · Draw 28.1% · Away 21.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

NEC Nijmegen v Fortuna Sittard

eredivisie · 18:00 UK

Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	11	6
Position last season	3	11
Points this season	9	14
Goal difference this season	-1	-1
Elo rating going in	1,598	1,533
Matches on record, all seasons	389	272
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	10
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	1.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.7	1.9
Clean sheets, last 10	0	1
Failed to score, last 10	1	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	2	2
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	8	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.6	11.2
Shots on target, last 5	2.6	4.4
Shots per possession	0.284	0.287
On-target shots per possession	0.081	0.122
Inside-box shots per possession	0.171	0.153
Share of shots from inside the box	59.0%	53.3%
Expected goals, last 5	1.11	0.89
Possession, last 5	55.8%	41.0%
Corners, last 5	3.4	2.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.275	0.285
On-target allowed per possession	0.107	0.090
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.194	0.203
Opponents' inside-box share	74.3%	69.1%
Save rate	63.6%	68.4%
Saves, last 5	3.6	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.86	1.32
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	74.0%
Passes, last 5	466	371
Fouls, last 5	10.6	9.6
Cards, last 5	1.6	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	10
Home side won	4
Drawn	3
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	21
Goals, away side	13

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 57.2% · Draw 22.3% · Away 20.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Twente v Utrecht

eredivisie · 18:00 UK

Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	4	12
Position last season	4	6
Points this season	17	8
Goal difference this season	+8	-11
Elo rating going in	1,686	1,626
Matches on record, all seasons	522	573
Recent form
Points, last 5	11	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	3.2
Goals scored, last 10	2.1	1.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	2.7
Clean sheets, last 10	3	1
Failed to score, last 10	1	2
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	7	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	8	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	3.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	19.0	12.4
Shots on target, last 5	7.2	4.2
Shots per possession	0.371	0.308
On-target shots per possession	0.136	0.107
Inside-box shots per possession	0.258	0.221
Share of shots from inside the box	68.6%	72.1%
Expected goals, last 5	1.18	0.84
Possession, last 5	55.0%	44.0%
Corners, last 5	7.2	3.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.245	0.306
On-target allowed per possession	0.088	0.122
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.144	0.197
Opponents' inside-box share	61.9%	67.2%
Save rate	68.4%	61.2%
Saves, last 5	3.0	4.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.89	1.85
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	74.0%
Passes, last 5	496	419
Fouls, last 5	11.8	16.6
Cards, last 5	1.0	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	32
Home side won	12
Drawn	7
Away side won	13
Goals, home side	53
Goals, away side	42

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 70.5% · Draw 16.6% · Away 12.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Juventus v Lazio

serie-a · 18:45 UK

Finished 0–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	6	2
Position last season	6	9
Points this season	11	16
Goal difference this season	+4	+7
Elo rating going in	1,744	1,704
Matches on record, all seasons	614	614
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	13
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.0	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	4	3
Failed to score, last 10	1	2
Wins in a row	0	2
Unbeaten run	2	7
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	17.8	14.0
Shots on target, last 5	6.8	4.6
Shots per possession	0.323	0.237
On-target shots per possession	0.108	0.093
Inside-box shots per possession	0.195	0.133
Share of shots from inside the box	61.2%	57.5%
Expected goals, last 5	1.49	1.72
Possession, last 5	57.2%	51.4%
Corners, last 5	7.8	4.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.208	0.265
On-target allowed per possession	0.081	0.105
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.114	0.177
Opponents' inside-box share	54.8%	68.3%
Save rate	66.0%	76.7%
Saves, last 5	1.6	4.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.57	1.26
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	88.7%	85.8%
Passes, last 5	566	490
Fouls, last 5	12.8	12.0
Cards, last 5	1.4	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	32
Home side won	21
Drawn	6
Away side won	5
Goals, home side	54
Goals, away side	23

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 58.4% · Draw 24.2% · Away 17.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Lyon v Nice

ligue-1 · 18:45 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	2	9
Position last season	4	16
Points this season	11	8
Goal difference this season	+7	-2
Elo rating going in	1,667	1,563
Matches on record, all seasons	592	594
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.9	1.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.0
Clean sheets, last 10	3	3
Failed to score, last 10	2	5
Wins in a row	0	2
Unbeaten run	0	2
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	9	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.8	11.2
Shots on target, last 5	5.4	4.0
Shots per possession	0.253	0.236
On-target shots per possession	0.095	0.081
Inside-box shots per possession	0.175	0.163
Share of shots from inside the box	69.0%	67.4%
Expected goals, last 5	1.38	0.96
Possession, last 5	52.2%	53.4%
Corners, last 5	4.8	4.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.254	0.259
On-target allowed per possession	0.089	0.082
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.166	0.155
Opponents' inside-box share	62.0%	54.6%
Save rate	68.3%	67.9%
Saves, last 5	3.6	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.02	1.65
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	85.0%	89.0%
Passes, last 5	468	555
Fouls, last 5	11.2	7.4
Cards, last 5	1.6	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	32
Home side won	15
Drawn	6
Away side won	11
Goals, home side	60
Goals, away side	42

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 53.1% · Draw 24.4% · Away 22.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Burgos v Sabadell

laliga-2 · 19:00 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	8	4
Position last season	7	—
Points this season	14	15
Goal difference this season	+2	+3
Elo rating going in	1,516	1,469
Matches on record, all seasons	219	50
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	10
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	1.4
Goals conceded, last 10	1.0	0.7
Clean sheets, last 10	3	5
Failed to score, last 10	3	3
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	3
Losses in a row	2	0
Days since last match	6	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.8	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.2	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	0.6
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	0.8
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.8	15.0
Shots on target, last 5	3.4	5.2
Shots per possession	0.242	0.316
On-target shots per possession	0.078	0.101
Inside-box shots per possession	0.161	0.208
Share of shots from inside the box	67.1%	66.2%
Expected goals, last 5	1.14	1.45
Possession, last 5	45.4%	48.6%
Corners, last 5	2.8	5.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.282	0.194
On-target allowed per possession	0.083	0.059
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.177	0.092
Opponents' inside-box share	61.6%	47.1%
Save rate	74.5%	73.4%
Saves, last 5	3.2	2.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.32	0.95
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	401	328
Fouls, last 5	16.2	18.2
Cards, last 5	3.2	2.4

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 34.1% · Draw 32.6% · Away 33.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Real Madrid v Sevilla

la-liga · 19:00 UK

Finished 4–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	3	5
Position last season	2	15
Points this season	18	14
Goal difference this season	+11	+1
Elo rating going in	1,841	1,595
Matches on record, all seasons	616	616
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	8
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	2.4	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.0	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	3	2
Failed to score, last 10	1	2
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	1	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	8	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	3.4	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	0.8	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	1.2
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	16.6	11.0
Shots on target, last 5	6.0	4.2
Shots per possession	0.287	0.280
On-target shots per possession	0.115	0.100
Inside-box shots per possession	0.205	0.163
Share of shots from inside the box	71.2%	56.3%
Expected goals, last 5	1.47	2.55
Possession, last 5	48.6%	42.2%
Corners, last 5	7.2	3.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.274	0.207
On-target allowed per possession	0.092	0.069
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.149	0.127
Opponents' inside-box share	54.5%	58.8%
Save rate	70.4%	68.3%
Saves, last 5	4.0	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.62	2.00
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	472	354
Fouls, last 5	8.8	12.8
Cards, last 5	2.8	3.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	32
Home side won	24
Drawn	2
Away side won	6
Goals, home side	80
Goals, away side	37

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 77.5% · Draw 14.0% · Away 8.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.