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The data behind the ratings

Monday 19 October 2026 · everything below is a stored value, as it was that morning

Monza v Cagliari

serie-a · 16:30 UK

Finished 4–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	16	4
Position last season	—	14
Points this season	4	13
Goal difference this season	-6	+3
Elo rating going in	1,443	1,599
Matches on record, all seasons	120	538
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	10
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	2.2	0.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	1.0
Goals conceded, last 10	2.5	0.7
Clean sheets, last 10	0	4
Failed to score, last 10	2	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	4
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	8	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.6	8.8
Shots on target, last 5	6.6	3.6
Shots per possession	0.267	0.270
On-target shots per possession	0.111	0.095
Inside-box shots per possession	0.183	0.168
Share of shots from inside the box	69.3%	61.5%
Expected goals, last 5	1.94	0.97
Possession, last 5	47.0%	35.6%
Corners, last 5	5.0	3.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.265	0.284
On-target allowed per possession	0.097	0.082
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.181	0.174
Opponents' inside-box share	71.4%	57.9%
Save rate	57.3%	80.1%
Saves, last 5	3.0	5.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.29	1.89
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	81.0%	83.2%
Passes, last 5	387	371
Fouls, last 5	12.2	7.8
Cards, last 5	1.8	1.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	1
Drawn	1
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	3
Goals, away side	6

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 38.5% · Draw 30.8% · Away 30.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Trabzonspor v Beşiktaş

super-lig · 17:00 UK

Finished 2–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	3	2
Position last season	3	4
Points this season	13	15
Goal difference this season	+11	+8
Elo rating going in	1,741	1,723
Matches on record, all seasons	541	541
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	12
Goals scored, last 5	2.6	3.0
Goals conceded, last 5	0.6	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.9	2.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.0	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	3	3
Failed to score, last 10	2	1
Wins in a row	2	1
Unbeaten run	2	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	9	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.2	18.0
Shots on target, last 5	6.6	6.6
Shots per possession	0.246	0.293
On-target shots per possession	0.118	0.104
Inside-box shots per possession	0.170	0.180
Share of shots from inside the box	70.4%	60.4%
Expected goals, last 5	1.48	2.37
Possession, last 5	54.0%	61.4%
Corners, last 5	4.8	7.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.331	0.290
On-target allowed per possession	0.110	0.104
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.196	0.152
Opponents' inside-box share	59.3%	46.8%
Save rate	73.1%	67.3%
Saves, last 5	4.4	2.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.41	0.99
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	84.0%	87.5%
Passes, last 5	453	518
Fouls, last 5	10.4	11.8
Cards, last 5	2.8	2.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	32
Home side won	9
Drawn	12
Away side won	11
Goals, home side	42
Goals, away side	48

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 38.4% · Draw 25.0% · Away 36.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Celta de Vigo II v Tenerife

laliga-2 · 18:30 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	11	12
Position last season	—	—
Points this season	11	12
Goal difference this season	-1	-2
Elo rating going in	1,447	1,399
Matches on record, all seasons	9	395
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	5
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	2.2	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	—	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	—	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	2	2
Failed to score, last 10	3	3
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	1	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	9	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	2.0	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	2.0	0.6
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.4	11.0
Shots on target, last 5	5.4	3.2
Shots per possession	0.258	0.247
On-target shots per possession	0.107	0.074
Inside-box shots per possession	0.159	0.142
Share of shots from inside the box	60.0%	57.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.98	0.76
Possession, last 5	52.2%	40.2%
Corners, last 5	4.0	4.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.304	0.197
On-target allowed per possession	0.112	0.065
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.204	0.122
Opponents' inside-box share	68.9%	58.7%
Save rate	66.2%	61.9%
Saves, last 5	3.2	2.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.85	1.13
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	484	343
Fouls, last 5	9.4	14.0
Cards, last 5	2.4	2.8

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 35.6% · Draw 29.3% · Away 35.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Parma v Torino

serie-a · 18:45 UK

Finished 0–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	16	12
Position last season	12	13
Points this season	4	7
Goal difference this season	-6	-2
Elo rating going in	1,544	1,585
Matches on record, all seasons	386	538
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	7
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	0.7	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.6	1.6
Clean sheets, last 10	1	0
Failed to score, last 10	5	2
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	2
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	9	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	0.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	7.4	10.0
Shots on target, last 5	2.8	3.6
Shots per possession	0.189	0.221
On-target shots per possession	0.059	0.065
Inside-box shots per possession	0.123	0.134
Share of shots from inside the box	70.1%	58.7%
Expected goals, last 5	0.57	1.36
Possession, last 5	41.4%	53.0%
Corners, last 5	3.0	3.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.270	0.310
On-target allowed per possession	0.087	0.096
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.190	0.224
Opponents' inside-box share	69.5%	72.5%
Save rate	71.8%	62.2%
Saves, last 5	4.2	2.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.04	1.10
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	81.3%	84.0%
Passes, last 5	374	492
Fouls, last 5	11.2	8.2
Cards, last 5	1.6	0.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	16
Home side won	6
Drawn	5
Away side won	5
Goals, home side	22
Goals, away side	22

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 29.0% · Draw 31.6% · Away 39.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Getafe v Rayo Vallecano

la-liga · 19:00 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	13	8
Position last season	7	8
Points this season	8	8
Goal difference this season	-6	-5
Elo rating going in	1,579	1,626
Matches on record, all seasons	624	597
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	7
Goals scored, last 5	0.6	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	2.6
Goals scored, last 10	0.5	1.6
Goals conceded, last 10	1.1	1.8
Clean sheets, last 10	3	1
Failed to score, last 10	5	0
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	2
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	9	30
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	0.0	1.4
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	2.6
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.4	16.0
Shots on target, last 5	3.2	5.2
Shots per possession	0.257	0.268
On-target shots per possession	0.061	0.105
Inside-box shots per possession	0.128	0.147
Share of shots from inside the box	49.1%	58.8%
Expected goals, last 5	0.41	1.08
Possession, last 5	30.6%	48.2%
Corners, last 5	3.2	5.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.223	0.303
On-target allowed per possession	0.077	0.104
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.128	0.192
Opponents' inside-box share	59.3%	62.3%
Save rate	72.7%	67.1%
Saves, last 5	3.8	3.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.50	2.83
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	67.0%	74.0%
Passes, last 5	249	402
Fouls, last 5	14.6	12.4
Cards, last 5	4.2	2.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	24
Home side won	4
Drawn	7
Away side won	13
Goals, home side	13
Goals, away side	31

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 31.5% · Draw 32.6% · Away 35.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Tottenham v Coventry

premier-league · 19:00 UK

Finished 3–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	17	14
Position last season	17	1
Points this season	3	6
Goal difference this season	-6	-6
Elo rating going in	1,635	1,639
Matches on record, all seasons	614	643
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	6
Goals scored, last 5	0.6	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	0.8	1.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	3	2
Failed to score, last 10	4	4
Wins in a row	0	2
Unbeaten run	1	2
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	9	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.8	11.2
Shots on target, last 5	3.6	4.2
Shots per possession	0.241	0.276
On-target shots per possession	0.060	0.100
Inside-box shots per possession	0.162	0.176
Share of shots from inside the box	66.5%	61.3%
Expected goals, last 5	1.36	1.40
Possession, last 5	59.6%	38.4%
Corners, last 5	7.8	4.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.296	0.265
On-target allowed per possession	0.085	0.073
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.188	0.167
Opponents' inside-box share	60.3%	60.2%
Save rate	63.1%	56.3%
Saves, last 5	2.0	2.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.81	1.29
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	89.0%	86.0%
Passes, last 5	527	323
Fouls, last 5	13.6	10.0
Cards, last 5	1.6	1.0

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 63.5% · Draw 20.6% · Away 15.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

SC Braga v GIL Vicente

primeira-liga · 19:15 UK

Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	7	7
Position last season	4	6
Points this season	11	11
Goal difference this season	+0	+1
Elo rating going in	1,725	1,584
Matches on record, all seasons	535	369
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	5
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	0.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	0.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	3	5
Failed to score, last 10	1	4
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	2
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	10	10
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.2	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	0.4
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	1.2
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.6	15.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.4	3.4
Shots per possession	0.203	0.250
On-target shots per possession	0.067	0.062
Inside-box shots per possession	0.127	0.147
Share of shots from inside the box	61.1%	57.8%
Expected goals, last 5	1.54	0.90
Possession, last 5	58.0%	52.6%
Corners, last 5	5.0	3.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.236	0.246
On-target allowed per possession	0.082	0.059
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.140	0.149
Opponents' inside-box share	57.0%	54.7%
Save rate	65.4%	66.7%
Saves, last 5	1.4	1.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.97	0.68
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	83.0%
Passes, last 5	565	467
Fouls, last 5	12.4	14.2
Cards, last 5	1.8	2.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	22
Home side won	13
Drawn	5
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	36
Goals, away side	17

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 60.7% · Draw 23.8% · Away 15.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.