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The data behind the ratings

Friday 23 October 2026 · everything below is a stored value, as it was that morning

Alanyaspor v Kocaelispor

super-lig · 17:00 UK

Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	8	8
Position last season	10	11
Points this season	12	12
Goal difference this season	-1	+1
Elo rating going in	1,604	1,589
Matches on record, all seasons	366	42
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	6
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	0.9
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.0
Clean sheets, last 10	3	3
Failed to score, last 10	2	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	2
Days since last match	6	5
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.0	12.8
Shots on target, last 5	4.2	4.0
Shots per possession	0.261	0.228
On-target shots per possession	0.092	0.071
Inside-box shots per possession	0.160	0.134
Share of shots from inside the box	61.0%	57.0%
Expected goals, last 5	1.36	1.23
Possession, last 5	46.0%	47.8%
Corners, last 5	5.4	4.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.278	0.299
On-target allowed per possession	0.099	0.073
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.173	0.164
Opponents' inside-box share	60.6%	52.1%
Save rate	76.6%	74.9%
Saves, last 5	4.2	4.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.87	1.61
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	82.4%	76.8%
Passes, last 5	383	398
Fouls, last 5	9.0	12.8
Cards, last 5	1.2	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	1
Drawn	0
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	5
Goals, away side	2

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 47.6% · Draw 29.9% · Away 22.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

GO Ahead Eagles v Telstar

eredivisie · 18:00 UK

Finished 3–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	9	15
Position last season	12	14
Points this season	11	6
Goal difference this season	-1	-8
Elo rating going in	1,547	1,525
Matches on record, all seasons	283	49
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	2
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	2.4	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	2.1	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	2.3	1.9
Clean sheets, last 10	0	1
Failed to score, last 10	0	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	1
Days since last match	5	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	3.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	3.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	17.2	14.2
Shots on target, last 5	6.2	3.6
Shots per possession	0.253	0.242
On-target shots per possession	0.101	0.067
Inside-box shots per possession	0.170	0.159
Share of shots from inside the box	69.2%	70.2%
Expected goals, last 5	2.04	2.17
Possession, last 5	59.2%	46.4%
Corners, last 5	7.2	4.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.416	0.302
On-target allowed per possession	0.130	0.130
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.267	0.209
Opponents' inside-box share	61.8%	71.6%
Save rate	62.1%	70.1%
Saves, last 5	3.4	5.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.91	2.62
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	502	433
Fouls, last 5	6.8	10.2
Cards, last 5	0.8	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	0
Drawn	1
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	3
Goals, away side	5

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 59.2% · Draw 23.5% · Away 17.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Granada CF v Valladolid

laliga-2 · 18:30 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	6	12
Position last season	14	16
Points this season	17	12
Goal difference this season	+3	+1
Elo rating going in	1,452	1,391
Matches on record, all seasons	600	490
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	8
Goals scored, last 5	2.0	2.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	4	2
Failed to score, last 10	2	3
Wins in a row	3	0
Unbeaten run	3	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	5	5
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.6	2.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.2	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	17.0	14.6
Shots on target, last 5	4.2	6.4
Shots per possession	0.307	0.263
On-target shots per possession	0.085	0.099
Inside-box shots per possession	0.191	0.169
Share of shots from inside the box	60.7%	61.7%
Expected goals, last 5	1.60	2.24
Possession, last 5	52.6%	49.6%
Corners, last 5	5.8	6.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.270	0.239
On-target allowed per possession	0.114	0.075
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.158	0.135
Opponents' inside-box share	59.5%	55.4%
Save rate	71.8%	65.5%
Saves, last 5	4.4	2.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.85	1.75
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	409	387
Fouls, last 5	11.4	15.8
Cards, last 5	2.2	3.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	12
Home side won	6
Drawn	2
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	20
Goals, away side	13

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 42.5% · Draw 29.0% · Away 28.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

VfB Stuttgart v Borussia Mönchengladbach

bundesliga · 18:30 UK

Finished 2–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	13	18
Position last season	4	12
Points this season	6	0
Goal difference this season	-2	-12
Elo rating going in	1,640	1,487
Matches on record, all seasons	486	550
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	0
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	3.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.7	1.4
Goals conceded, last 10	1.7	2.3
Clean sheets, last 10	1	3
Failed to score, last 10	2	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	6
Days since last match	6	5
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	18.4	15.2
Shots on target, last 5	6.2	4.6
Shots per possession	0.313	0.268
On-target shots per possession	0.115	0.085
Inside-box shots per possession	0.212	0.176
Share of shots from inside the box	67.4%	64.8%
Expected goals, last 5	2.08	0.86
Possession, last 5	57.2%	47.8%
Corners, last 5	7.4	6.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.359	0.312
On-target allowed per possession	0.122	0.148
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.242	0.225
Opponents' inside-box share	68.1%	71.8%
Save rate	67.1%	67.8%
Saves, last 5	3.2	5.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.69	1.60
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	534	390
Fouls, last 5	8.4	15.2
Cards, last 5	0.6	3.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	28
Home side won	13
Drawn	5
Away side won	10
Goals, home side	44
Goals, away side	40

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 69.8% · Draw 16.7% · Away 13.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Stade Brestois 29 v Nice

ligue-1 · 18:45 UK

Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	8	13
Position last season	12	16
Points this season	9	8
Goal difference this season	+3	-3
Elo rating going in	1,565	1,557
Matches on record, all seasons	365	595
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	1.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.0
Clean sheets, last 10	0	3
Failed to score, last 10	2	5
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	2	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	6	5
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	0.4
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	1.6
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.0	10.6
Shots on target, last 5	5.2	4.2
Shots per possession	0.318	0.239
On-target shots per possession	0.108	0.078
Inside-box shots per possession	0.208	0.160
Share of shots from inside the box	65.3%	65.2%
Expected goals, last 5	2.37	1.48
Possession, last 5	44.0%	53.0%
Corners, last 5	3.4	5.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.224	0.252
On-target allowed per possession	0.078	0.083
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.132	0.152
Opponents' inside-box share	60.0%	55.5%
Save rate	67.7%	67.9%
Saves, last 5	3.6	3.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.85	1.08
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	407	517
Fouls, last 5	13.8	8.8
Cards, last 5	1.2	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	20
Home side won	4
Drawn	8
Away side won	8
Goals, home side	18
Goals, away side	28

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 42.2% · Draw 28.6% · Away 29.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Torino v Monza

serie-a · 18:45 UK

Finished 3–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	10	13
Position last season	13	—
Points this season	10	7
Goal difference this season	+1	-2
Elo rating going in	1,596	1,455
Matches on record, all seasons	539	121
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	1.6
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	2.1
Clean sheets, last 10	1	1
Failed to score, last 10	1	1
Wins in a row	2	1
Unbeaten run	3	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	4	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.8	15.6
Shots on target, last 5	3.4	6.8
Shots per possession	0.220	0.271
On-target shots per possession	0.069	0.111
Inside-box shots per possession	0.140	0.188
Share of shots from inside the box	62.0%	70.0%
Expected goals, last 5	1.47	2.06
Possession, last 5	52.0%	45.8%
Corners, last 5	3.6	4.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.323	0.263
On-target allowed per possession	0.097	0.095
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.236	0.173
Opponents' inside-box share	73.3%	69.5%
Save rate	65.2%	62.9%
Saves, last 5	3.0	3.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.22	1.59
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	81.0%	80.5%
Passes, last 5	476	387
Fouls, last 5	9.6	12.2
Cards, last 5	1.0	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	3
Drawn	3
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	8
Goals, away side	4

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 44.4% · Draw 28.5% · Away 27.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Alaves v Malaga

la-liga · 19:00 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	7	20
Position last season	14	4
Points this season	11	4
Goal difference this season	+3	-12
Elo rating going in	1,577	1,514
Matches on record, all seasons	397	613
Recent form
Points, last 5	1	2
Goals scored, last 5	0.6	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	2.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	0.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.9
Clean sheets, last 10	3	1
Failed to score, last 10	2	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	2	1
Days since last match	5	5
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.2	12.0
Shots on target, last 5	4.6	4.0
Shots per possession	0.300	0.226
On-target shots per possession	0.116	0.062
Inside-box shots per possession	0.180	0.137
Share of shots from inside the box	55.2%	63.0%
Expected goals, last 5	1.09	1.02
Possession, last 5	40.2%	49.8%
Corners, last 5	2.6	6.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.213	0.298
On-target allowed per possession	0.080	0.118
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.123	0.175
Opponents' inside-box share	59.9%	59.0%
Save rate	72.2%	66.7%
Saves, last 5	3.2	3.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.53	1.80
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	357	457
Fouls, last 5	13.0	11.4
Cards, last 5	1.2	2.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	4
Drawn	1
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	9
Goals, away side	4

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 57.8% · Draw 25.0% · Away 17.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Bolton v Middlesbrough

championship · 19:00 UK

Finished 1–5. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	15	2
Position last season	5	5
Points this season	14	22
Goal difference this season	-3	+6
Elo rating going in	1,496	1,590
Matches on record, all seasons	681	703
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	9
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	2.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.7	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	3	2
Failed to score, last 10	4	0
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	2	9
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	6	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.0	21.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.8	7.6
Shots per possession	0.252	0.345
On-target shots per possession	0.092	0.117
Inside-box shots per possession	0.178	0.236
Share of shots from inside the box	72.6%	68.2%
Expected goals, last 5	1.96	2.14
Possession, last 5	45.2%	59.6%
Corners, last 5	4.0	7.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.263	0.272
On-target allowed per possession	0.105	0.097
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.204	0.198
Opponents' inside-box share	76.9%	70.2%
Save rate	69.2%	64.2%
Saves, last 5	3.4	2.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.63	0.75
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	385	519
Fouls, last 5	11.8	9.2
Cards, last 5	2.4	1.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	12
Home side won	1
Drawn	1
Away side won	10
Goals, home side	7
Goals, away side	23

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 19.2% · Draw 21.2% · Away 59.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Ipswich v Nottingham Forest

premier-league · 19:00 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	10	18
Position last season	2	16
Points this season	9	5
Goal difference this season	-4	-4
Elo rating going in	1,636	1,684
Matches on record, all seasons	681	668
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	4
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	0.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	0.9
Goals conceded, last 10	1.7	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	2	1
Failed to score, last 10	3	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	3
Days since last match	6	5
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Scored away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.6	19.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.6	4.0
Shots per possession	0.269	0.363
On-target shots per possession	0.109	0.088
Inside-box shots per possession	0.177	0.235
Share of shots from inside the box	66.6%	65.2%
Expected goals, last 5	1.47	1.96
Possession, last 5	45.0%	46.8%
Corners, last 5	3.2	5.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.295	0.265
On-target allowed per possession	0.099	0.083
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.186	0.166
Opponents' inside-box share	63.1%	63.8%
Save rate	67.1%	68.3%
Saves, last 5	3.0	2.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.74	1.79
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	427	380
Fouls, last 5	11.6	14.8
Cards, last 5	2.0	2.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	18
Home side won	4
Drawn	5
Away side won	9
Goals, home side	21
Goals, away side	30

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 29.7% · Draw 27.8% · Away 42.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Guimaraes v Maritimo

primeira-liga · 19:45 UK

Finished 5–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	15	11
Position last season	8	—
Points this season	5	8
Goal difference this season	-5	-5
Elo rating going in	1,570	1,486
Matches on record, all seasons	536	436
Recent form
Points, last 5	2	1
Goals scored, last 5	0.4	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	2.2
Goals scored, last 10	0.5	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.7
Clean sheets, last 10	2	1
Failed to score, last 10	6	1
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	1
Days since last match	12	13
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	16.6	8.8
Shots on target, last 5	4.4	2.8
Shots per possession	0.300	0.240
On-target shots per possession	0.067	0.078
Inside-box shots per possession	0.188	0.151
Share of shots from inside the box	62.5%	62.0%
Expected goals, last 5	0.36	0.47
Possession, last 5	55.6%	46.4%
Corners, last 5	7.2	3.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.209	0.273
On-target allowed per possession	0.080	0.106
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.145	0.190
Opponents' inside-box share	66.0%	69.2%
Save rate	62.8%	66.7%
Saves, last 5	2.6	3.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.83	1.92
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	75.0%	82.0%
Passes, last 5	467	392
Fouls, last 5	15.6	15.0
Cards, last 5	2.8	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	26
Home side won	14
Drawn	4
Away side won	8
Goals, home side	29
Goals, away side	26

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 58.0% · Draw 24.7% · Away 17.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.