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The data behind the ratings

Saturday 24 October 2026 · everything below is a stored value, as it was that morning

Eyüpspor v Kasımpaşa

super-lig · 10:30 UK

Finished 0–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	18	7
Position last season	15	13
Points this season	3	13
Goal difference this season	-20	+3
Elo rating going in	1,526	1,616
Matches on record, all seasons	78	502
Recent form
Points, last 5	0	8
Goals scored, last 5	0.0	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	3.8	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	0.9	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	2.5	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	1	3
Failed to score, last 10	7	1
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	5	0
Days since last match	7	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Scored away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	3.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.6	15.0
Shots on target, last 5	4.6	4.8
Shots per possession	0.246	0.281
On-target shots per possession	0.088	0.095
Inside-box shots per possession	0.113	0.158
Share of shots from inside the box	45.1%	56.4%
Expected goals, last 5	1.02	1.22
Possession, last 5	49.4%	47.0%
Corners, last 5	4.4	5.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.267	0.246
On-target allowed per possession	0.102	0.086
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.170	0.156
Opponents' inside-box share	61.8%	61.0%
Save rate	58.8%	73.8%
Saves, last 5	3.4	4.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.84	1.45
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	84.8%	79.5%
Passes, last 5	414	366
Fouls, last 5	7.8	14.8
Cards, last 5	1.4	3.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	1
Drawn	0
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	2
Goals, away side	6

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 17.2% · Draw 24.4% · Away 58.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Aston Villa v Manchester City

premier-league · 11:30 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	11	1
Position last season	4	2
Points this season	8	21
Goal difference this season	-4	+12
Elo rating going in	1,778	1,938
Matches on record, all seasons	645	615
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	15
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	2.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	2.4
Goals conceded, last 10	1.6	1.0
Clean sheets, last 10	2	4
Failed to score, last 10	3	0
Wins in a row	1	7
Unbeaten run	3	7
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.0	14.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.4	4.4
Shots per possession	0.264	0.233
On-target shots per possession	0.088	0.077
Inside-box shots per possession	0.170	0.162
Share of shots from inside the box	64.2%	68.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.73	2.48
Possession, last 5	53.2%	62.6%
Corners, last 5	3.6	5.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.326	0.302
On-target allowed per possession	0.095	0.104
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.198	0.206
Opponents' inside-box share	62.9%	70.2%
Save rate	68.7%	71.9%
Saves, last 5	3.6	3.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.19	1.37
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	457	602
Fouls, last 5	9.4	10.6
Cards, last 5	1.6	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	26
Home side won	6
Drawn	2
Away side won	18
Goals, home side	22
Goals, away side	60

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 19.2% · Draw 21.3% · Away 59.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Charlton v Norwich

championship · 11:30 UK

Finished 1–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	13	21
Position last season	20	9
Points this season	14	9
Goal difference this season	-5	-4
Elo rating going in	1,477	1,491
Matches on record, all seasons	709	658
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	0
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	2.4
Goals scored, last 10	0.8	1.6
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.9
Clean sheets, last 10	3	0
Failed to score, last 10	4	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	5
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.2	11.2
Shots on target, last 5	3.6	4.0
Shots per possession	0.255	0.276
On-target shots per possession	0.079	0.097
Inside-box shots per possession	0.164	0.169
Share of shots from inside the box	65.5%	59.2%
Expected goals, last 5	1.81	0.77
Possession, last 5	48.4%	50.8%
Corners, last 5	4.6	3.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.310	0.266
On-target allowed per possession	0.092	0.094
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.163	0.188
Opponents' inside-box share	51.5%	69.6%
Save rate	71.6%	59.8%
Saves, last 5	4.0	2.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.85	1.89
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	373	429
Fouls, last 5	14.2	11.2
Cards, last 5	2.4	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	1
Drawn	0
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	3
Goals, away side	5

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 28.9% · Draw 27.5% · Away 43.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Huddersfield v Wigan

league-one · 11:30 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	24
Position last season	9	16
Points this season	22	7
Goal difference this season	+12	-8
Elo rating going in	1,448	1,337
Matches on record, all seasons	693	724
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	4
Goals scored, last 5	2.4	0.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.9	0.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.0	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	2	2
Failed to score, last 10	1	6
Wins in a row	2	0
Unbeaten run	4	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	4	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	2.6	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.0	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	0.6
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	1.4
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.4	10.2
Shots on target, last 5	7.0	2.0
Shots per possession	0.316	0.238
On-target shots per possession	0.132	0.052
Inside-box shots per possession	0.261	0.147
Share of shots from inside the box	80.1%	59.1%
Expected goals, last 5	2.51	0.66
Possession, last 5	45.6%	50.0%
Corners, last 5	7.8	4.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.210	0.311
On-target allowed per possession	0.060	0.093
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.143	0.220
Opponents' inside-box share	63.9%	69.9%
Save rate	66.7%	71.1%
Saves, last 5	2.0	3.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.29	2.05
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	349	421
Fouls, last 5	13.2	13.4
Cards, last 5	1.4	3.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	14
Home side won	4
Drawn	3
Away side won	7
Goals, home side	10
Goals, away side	14

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 72.0% · Draw 17.1% · Away 10.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Luton v Leicester

league-one · 11:30 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	13	10
Position last season	7	21
Points this season	14	15
Goal difference this season	+1	+1
Elo rating going in	1,460	1,471
Matches on record, all seasons	375	622
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	10
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	2.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.9	1.6
Goals conceded, last 10	1.8	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	1	3
Failed to score, last 10	1	2
Wins in a row	1	2
Unbeaten run	1	2
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	4	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.0	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	2.0
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	1.0
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	17.4	15.8
Shots on target, last 5	4.6	6.6
Shots per possession	0.294	0.239
On-target shots per possession	0.095	0.090
Inside-box shots per possession	0.205	0.166
Share of shots from inside the box	69.2%	68.8%
Expected goals, last 5	2.29	2.21
Possession, last 5	57.2%	65.4%
Corners, last 5	7.4	6.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.254	0.390
On-target allowed per possession	0.088	0.141
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.181	0.243
Opponents' inside-box share	69.5%	60.9%
Save rate	61.2%	67.9%
Saves, last 5	2.6	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.63	0.80
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	440	612
Fouls, last 5	14.4	11.2
Cards, last 5	1.6	1.6

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 42.2% · Draw 23.9% · Away 33.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Portsmouth v Millwall

championship · 11:30 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	12	11
Position last season	18	3
Points this season	15	15
Goal difference this season	+0	+0
Elo rating going in	1,508	1,575
Matches on record, all seasons	510	709
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	6
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	1.6
Goals conceded, last 10	1.1	1.8
Clean sheets, last 10	3	3
Failed to score, last 10	3	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	3	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	4	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.8	13.4
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	4.8
Shots per possession	0.282	0.330
On-target shots per possession	0.077	0.113
Inside-box shots per possession	0.183	0.269
Share of shots from inside the box	61.5%	79.4%
Expected goals, last 5	1.26	1.37
Possession, last 5	51.4%	47.8%
Corners, last 5	5.2	6.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.234	0.290
On-target allowed per possession	0.077	0.076
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.157	0.188
Opponents' inside-box share	66.4%	64.6%
Save rate	70.5%	61.9%
Saves, last 5	2.0	2.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.21	1.09
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	393	303
Fouls, last 5	11.2	12.8
Cards, last 5	2.6	2.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	2
Drawn	0
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	7
Goals, away side	7

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 37.7% · Draw 28.7% · Away 33.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Sheffield Utd v Derby

championship · 11:30 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	10	23
Position last season	13	8
Points this season	15	6
Goal difference this season	+1	-11
Elo rating going in	1,525	1,471
Matches on record, all seasons	688	711
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	2
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	0.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.8
Clean sheets, last 10	3	1
Failed to score, last 10	2	4
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	1	0
Losses in a row	0	2
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.2	15.4
Shots on target, last 5	3.2	4.6
Shots per possession	0.247	0.258
On-target shots per possession	0.085	0.076
Inside-box shots per possession	0.161	0.170
Share of shots from inside the box	62.9%	62.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.29	0.85
Possession, last 5	42.2%	52.4%
Corners, last 5	2.8	5.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.270	0.273
On-target allowed per possession	0.079	0.116
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.192	0.187
Opponents' inside-box share	70.2%	69.1%
Save rate	67.7%	63.4%
Saves, last 5	2.6	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.39	1.18
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	331	401
Fouls, last 5	11.6	10.4
Cards, last 5	2.6	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	10
Home side won	6
Drawn	1
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	14
Goals, away side	11

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 53.9% · Draw 23.9% · Away 22.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Cordoba v Eibar

laliga-2 · 12:00 UK

Finished 2–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	13	2
Position last season	10	8
Points this season	12	22
Goal difference this season	-5	+9
Elo rating going in	1,440	1,543
Matches on record, all seasons	258	492
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	10
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	2.0
Goals conceded, last 10	2.0	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	1	4
Failed to score, last 10	1	0
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	1	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	8	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.4	13.0
Shots on target, last 5	4.8	5.6
Shots per possession	0.277	0.268
On-target shots per possession	0.080	0.120
Inside-box shots per possession	0.184	0.172
Share of shots from inside the box	66.4%	62.9%
Expected goals, last 5	1.76	2.02
Possession, last 5	58.4%	49.0%
Corners, last 5	4.6	3.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.288	0.314
On-target allowed per possession	0.103	0.102
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.195	0.139
Opponents' inside-box share	66.2%	44.3%
Save rate	55.0%	77.9%
Saves, last 5	1.8	4.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.83	1.81
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	439	424
Fouls, last 5	17.8	10.8
Cards, last 5	3.6	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	1
Drawn	2
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	4
Goals, away side	11

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 43.7% · Draw 28.7% · Away 27.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Rayo Vallecano v Elche

la-liga · 12:00 UK

Finished 0–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	13	18
Position last season	8	13
Points this season	9	7
Goal difference this season	-5	-6
Elo rating going in	1,627	1,563
Matches on record, all seasons	598	451
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	6
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.8	1.8
Clean sheets, last 10	1	2
Failed to score, last 10	0	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	3	3
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	5	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	1.4
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.6	1.2
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	18.0	8.6
Shots on target, last 5	5.2	2.6
Shots per possession	0.286	0.196
On-target shots per possession	0.106	0.077
Inside-box shots per possession	0.148	0.118
Share of shots from inside the box	54.3%	60.0%
Expected goals, last 5	2.26	0.57
Possession, last 5	55.6%	46.4%
Corners, last 5	5.8	3.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.318	0.286
On-target allowed per possession	0.111	0.094
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.193	0.195
Opponents' inside-box share	60.6%	67.0%
Save rate	67.6%	65.2%
Saves, last 5	3.4	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.61	1.28
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	461	436
Fouls, last 5	12.0	13.6
Cards, last 5	3.2	3.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	14
Home side won	4
Drawn	2
Away side won	8
Goals, home side	16
Goals, away side	26

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 54.3% · Draw 24.9% · Away 20.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Cagliari v Bologna

serie-a · 13:00 UK

Finished 0–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	7	14
Position last season	14	8
Points this season	13	5
Goal difference this season	-1	-4
Elo rating going in	1,587	1,636
Matches on record, all seasons	539	577
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	5
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.0	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.1	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	3	1
Failed to score, last 10	3	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	1
Days since last match	5	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.0	11.6
Shots on target, last 5	4.6	3.4
Shots per possession	0.277	0.241
On-target shots per possession	0.098	0.076
Inside-box shots per possession	0.174	0.154
Share of shots from inside the box	62.2%	62.8%
Expected goals, last 5	1.30	0.87
Possession, last 5	39.6%	44.4%
Corners, last 5	3.6	3.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.295	0.256
On-target allowed per possession	0.089	0.080
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.187	0.168
Opponents' inside-box share	60.5%	65.2%
Save rate	74.9%	66.7%
Saves, last 5	4.6	3.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.55	1.79
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	83.0%	80.5%
Passes, last 5	399	395
Fouls, last 5	9.4	11.6
Cards, last 5	1.0	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	26
Home side won	7
Drawn	7
Away side won	12
Goals, home side	24
Goals, away side	35

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 32.7% · Draw 31.3% · Away 36.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Como v Sassuolo

serie-a · 13:00 UK

Finished 2–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	4	11
Position last season	4	11
Points this season	14	8
Goal difference this season	+5	-2
Elo rating going in	1,729	1,563
Matches on record, all seasons	83	463
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	5
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	2.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.8	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	0.8	2.0
Clean sheets, last 10	3	0
Failed to score, last 10	2	1
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	2	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	6	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	2.0	1.2
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	2.2
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	22.0	13.8
Shots on target, last 5	7.2	6.0
Shots per possession	0.319	0.290
On-target shots per possession	0.104	0.119
Inside-box shots per possession	0.210	0.179
Share of shots from inside the box	66.9%	62.3%
Expected goals, last 5	2.19	1.42
Possession, last 5	62.2%	49.4%
Corners, last 5	6.8	4.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.320	0.332
On-target allowed per possession	0.084	0.131
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.204	0.217
Opponents' inside-box share	66.7%	67.2%
Save rate	70.5%	66.7%
Saves, last 5	3.0	4.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.66	1.45
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	88.0%	87.5%
Passes, last 5	591	447
Fouls, last 5	8.4	9.0
Cards, last 5	1.8	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	1
Drawn	0
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	3
Goals, away side	2

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 64.3% · Draw 20.1% · Away 15.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Gaziantep FK v Erzurumspor FK

super-lig · 13:00 UK

Finished 1–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	14	9
Position last season	12	—
Points this season	8	11
Goal difference this season	-4	-6
Elo rating going in	1,542	1,531
Matches on record, all seasons	264	82
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	10
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	0.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.0	0.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.6	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	2	4
Failed to score, last 10	3	5
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	3
Losses in a row	3	0
Days since last match	6	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.5	10.0
Shots on target, last 5	3.8	3.0
Shots per possession	0.244	0.236
On-target shots per possession	0.069	0.076
Inside-box shots per possession	0.147	0.144
Share of shots from inside the box	60.2%	58.5%
Expected goals, last 5	1.33	0.95
Possession, last 5	51.5%	37.4%
Corners, last 5	4.8	2.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.304	0.237
On-target allowed per possession	0.095	0.074
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.220	0.155
Opponents' inside-box share	70.4%	64.7%
Save rate	63.9%	66.7%
Saves, last 5	3.2	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.20	1.00
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	81.8%	81.5%
Passes, last 5	435	341
Fouls, last 5	10.8	12.6
Cards, last 5	2.0	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	0
Drawn	1
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	3
Goals, away side	4

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 39.1% · Draw 29.2% · Away 31.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

1. FC Köln v FC Schalke 04

bundesliga · 13:30 UK

Finished 0–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	11	14
Position last season	14	—
Points this season	7	5
Goal difference this season	-3	-3
Elo rating going in	1,480	1,450
Matches on record, all seasons	416	414
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	5
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	2.3	2.1
Clean sheets, last 10	0	2
Failed to score, last 10	1	5
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	2
Days since last match	8	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.8	10.0
Shots on target, last 5	5.2	3.2
Shots per possession	0.343	0.274
On-target shots per possession	0.119	0.095
Inside-box shots per possession	0.247	0.186
Share of shots from inside the box	71.8%	70.3%
Expected goals, last 5	1.08	0.35
Possession, last 5	47.2%	37.2%
Corners, last 5	6.0	3.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.270	0.261
On-target allowed per possession	0.107	0.122
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.181	0.192
Opponents' inside-box share	66.5%	73.1%
Save rate	61.4%	69.0%
Saves, last 5	5.0	4.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.51	1.38
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	432	326
Fouls, last 5	11.2	10.0
Cards, last 5	2.2	1.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	18
Home side won	9
Drawn	5
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	30
Goals, away side	26

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 45.8% · Draw 25.8% · Away 28.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

FC Augsburg v Union Berlin

bundesliga · 13:30 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	10	16
Position last season	9	11
Points this season	8	5
Goal difference this season	+4	-12
Elo rating going in	1,562	1,521
Matches on record, all seasons	516	246
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	4
Goals scored, last 5	2.6	0.4
Goals conceded, last 5	2.4	2.8
Goals scored, last 10	2.3	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.9	2.3
Clean sheets, last 10	1	3
Failed to score, last 10	1	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	2
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	2.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.6	11.6
Shots on target, last 5	5.8	3.2
Shots per possession	0.369	0.270
On-target shots per possession	0.157	0.099
Inside-box shots per possession	0.272	0.180
Share of shots from inside the box	71.8%	64.6%
Expected goals, last 5	2.98	1.25
Possession, last 5	41.6%	43.0%
Corners, last 5	5.0	3.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.343	0.269
On-target allowed per possession	0.126	0.112
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.232	0.179
Opponents' inside-box share	65.7%	68.6%
Save rate	70.0%	58.3%
Saves, last 5	5.8	4.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	4.39	0.85
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	365	360
Fouls, last 5	10.8	11.8
Cards, last 5	2.0	2.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	14
Home side won	6
Drawn	5
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	18
Goals, away side	15

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 52.2% · Draw 23.3% · Away 24.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

FSV Mainz 05 v Werder Bremen

bundesliga · 13:30 UK

Finished 2–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	5	8
Position last season	10	15
Points this season	10	9
Goal difference this season	+4	+0
Elo rating going in	1,580	1,528
Matches on record, all seasons	550	518
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	9
Goals scored, last 5	2.8	2.2
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	2.2	1.4
Goals conceded, last 10	1.8	1.9
Clean sheets, last 10	4	0
Failed to score, last 10	1	2
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	1	5
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Scored away, last 5 there	2.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	17.0	15.0
Shots on target, last 5	6.4	7.6
Shots per possession	0.376	0.298
On-target shots per possession	0.135	0.120
Inside-box shots per possession	0.281	0.191
Share of shots from inside the box	75.2%	65.3%
Expected goals, last 5	2.22	2.03
Possession, last 5	51.0%	46.0%
Corners, last 5	3.6	3.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.251	0.297
On-target allowed per possession	0.091	0.113
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.183	0.192
Opponents' inside-box share	71.9%	64.1%
Save rate	61.6%	65.8%
Saves, last 5	2.6	3.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.02	1.75
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	442	485
Fouls, last 5	15.0	11.2
Cards, last 5	2.6	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	30
Home side won	11
Drawn	7
Away side won	12
Goals, home side	43
Goals, away side	39

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 55.5% · Draw 23.6% · Away 20.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

RB Leipzig v SV Elversberg

bundesliga · 13:30 UK

Finished 4–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	7	6
Position last season	3	—
Points this season	9	10
Goal difference this season	+5	+1
Elo rating going in	1,666	1,581
Matches on record, all seasons	346	8
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	7
Goals scored, last 5	2.6	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	2.2	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	2.3	—
Goals conceded, last 10	2.1	—
Clean sheets, last 10	3	1
Failed to score, last 10	1	2
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.2
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	3.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	16.4	11.2
Shots on target, last 5	5.6	4.4
Shots per possession	0.312	0.250
On-target shots per possession	0.122	0.100
Inside-box shots per possession	0.220	0.177
Share of shots from inside the box	68.7%	66.6%
Expected goals, last 5	2.50	1.98
Possession, last 5	53.6%	46.6%
Corners, last 5	5.4	3.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.321	0.393
On-target allowed per possession	0.138	0.102
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.221	0.283
Opponents' inside-box share	68.4%	71.2%
Save rate	66.3%	64.6%
Saves, last 5	6.4	3.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.50	2.55
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	527	400
Fouls, last 5	9.8	10.6
Cards, last 5	1.0	2.0

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 66.8% · Draw 18.5% · Away 14.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

SC Paderborn 07 v Hamburger SV

bundesliga · 13:30 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	15	9
Position last season	—	13
Points this season	5	9
Goal difference this season	-4	-9
Elo rating going in	1,417	1,517
Matches on record, all seasons	76	316
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	9
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	2.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.0	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.6	2.1
Clean sheets, last 10	2	1
Failed to score, last 10	5	3
Wins in a row	0	3
Unbeaten run	1	3
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.4	11.8
Shots on target, last 5	3.6	3.8
Shots per possession	0.310	0.300
On-target shots per possession	0.074	0.102
Inside-box shots per possession	0.190	0.181
Share of shots from inside the box	62.9%	58.4%
Expected goals, last 5	1.46	1.36
Possession, last 5	45.4%	41.0%
Corners, last 5	4.8	4.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.324	0.289
On-target allowed per possession	0.118	0.099
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.218	0.186
Opponents' inside-box share	67.1%	61.7%
Save rate	72.8%	65.8%
Saves, last 5	4.8	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.66	1.40
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	442	331
Fouls, last 5	10.6	13.4
Cards, last 5	1.2	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	1
Drawn	0
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	3
Goals, away side	3

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 41.9% · Draw 26.7% · Away 31.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

AFC Wimbledon v Wycombe

league-one · 14:00 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	16	15
Position last season	19	11
Points this season	12	14
Goal difference this season	-11	-4
Elo rating going in	1,306	1,414
Matches on record, all seasons	322	421
Recent form
Points, last 5	2	8
Goals scored, last 5	0.4	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	2.2	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	0.7	1.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	2.1
Clean sheets, last 10	5	2
Failed to score, last 10	4	0
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	2
Losses in a row	3	0
Days since last match	4	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	0.4	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	0.6	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	2.0
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.4	14.0
Shots on target, last 5	2.4	3.6
Shots per possession	0.232	0.247
On-target shots per possession	0.059	0.092
Inside-box shots per possession	0.153	0.183
Share of shots from inside the box	67.6%	75.1%
Expected goals, last 5	0.62	1.63
Possession, last 5	44.0%	52.0%
Corners, last 5	5.6	6.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.279	0.274
On-target allowed per possession	0.105	0.095
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.198	0.151
Opponents' inside-box share	73.3%	56.8%
Save rate	73.3%	61.8%
Saves, last 5	4.2	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.13	1.41
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	329	406
Fouls, last 5	10.8	12.0
Cards, last 5	1.2	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	7
Home side won	3
Drawn	3
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	9
Goals, away side	8

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 22.1% · Draw 25.6% · Away 52.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Arsenal v Everton

premier-league · 14:00 UK

Finished 2–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	2	6
Position last season	1	13
Points this season	18	10
Goal difference this season	+6	+1
Elo rating going in	1,938	1,708
Matches on record, all seasons	615	615
Recent form
Points, last 5	12	6
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	0.6	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	6	3
Failed to score, last 10	1	3
Wins in a row	2	0
Unbeaten run	2	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	6	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.0	14.4
Shots on target, last 5	4.6	4.6
Shots per possession	0.217	0.289
On-target shots per possession	0.075	0.100
Inside-box shots per possession	0.153	0.205
Share of shots from inside the box	71.7%	72.8%
Expected goals, last 5	1.91	1.14
Possession, last 5	61.0%	49.4%
Corners, last 5	4.6	5.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.267	0.272
On-target allowed per possession	0.069	0.083
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.152	0.188
Opponents' inside-box share	55.1%	69.2%
Save rate	71.7%	66.2%
Saves, last 5	2.8	2.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.84	1.48
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	501	463
Fouls, last 5	11.0	6.6
Cards, last 5	1.4	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	32
Home side won	18
Drawn	7
Away side won	7
Goals, home side	53
Goals, away side	28

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 65.1% · Draw 22.1% · Away 12.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Blackburn v Wrexham

championship · 14:00 UK

Finished 2–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	10	14
Position last season	22	7
Points this season	15	14
Goal difference this season	+1	-1
Elo rating going in	1,494	1,552
Matches on record, all seasons	731	103
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	7
Goals scored, last 5	2.0	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	2.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	1.4
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	2	2
Failed to score, last 10	1	2
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.2	11.0
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	3.6
Shots per possession	0.248	0.215
On-target shots per possession	0.092	0.065
Inside-box shots per possession	0.164	0.164
Share of shots from inside the box	67.6%	75.9%
Expected goals, last 5	0.95	1.25
Possession, last 5	42.6%	49.2%
Corners, last 5	6.6	5.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.309	0.261
On-target allowed per possession	0.083	0.093
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.212	0.157
Opponents' inside-box share	67.9%	59.8%
Save rate	64.3%	61.8%
Saves, last 5	3.0	2.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.27	0.79
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	335	433
Fouls, last 5	10.0	8.6
Cards, last 5	2.0	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	0
Drawn	1
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	1
Goals, away side	3

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 34.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 35.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Blackpool v Mansfield Town

league-one · 14:00 UK

Finished 1–4. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	17	10
Position last season	13	10
Points this season	11	15
Goal difference this season	-1	+1
Elo rating going in	1,395	1,425
Matches on record, all seasons	687	102
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	9
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	1.6
Goals conceded, last 10	1.6	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	2	2
Failed to score, last 10	2	3
Wins in a row	1	1
Unbeaten run	1	5
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	4	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	2.2	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.4	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	2.0
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.8	15.8
Shots on target, last 5	3.6	4.2
Shots per possession	0.288	0.305
On-target shots per possession	0.096	0.091
Inside-box shots per possession	0.189	0.231
Share of shots from inside the box	63.4%	74.5%
Expected goals, last 5	0.79	2.61
Possession, last 5	50.6%	49.4%
Corners, last 5	6.8	6.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.387	0.235
On-target allowed per possession	0.135	0.075
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.249	0.139
Opponents' inside-box share	63.6%	56.9%
Save rate	72.1%	63.1%
Saves, last 5	4.8	1.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.72	0.75
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	349	351
Fouls, last 5	13.0	12.4
Cards, last 5	2.2	2.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	1
Drawn	1
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	4
Goals, away side	7

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 35.1% · Draw 25.7% · Away 39.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Bromley v Peterborough

league-one · 14:00 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	23	21
Position last season	—	18
Points this season	8	9
Goal difference this season	-16	-10
Elo rating going in	1,361	1,322
Matches on record, all seasons	10	696
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	4
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	0.9	1.0
Goals conceded, last 10	2.5	1.8
Clean sheets, last 10	1	1
Failed to score, last 10	4	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	3	1
Days since last match	4	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	0.6	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	2.6	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	1.0
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	2.2
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	8.2	14.2
Shots on target, last 5	3.6	3.6
Shots per possession	0.239	0.288
On-target shots per possession	0.092	0.075
Inside-box shots per possession	0.118	0.190
Share of shots from inside the box	51.7%	65.1%
Expected goals, last 5	0.52	1.76
Possession, last 5	31.6%	50.0%
Corners, last 5	3.8	6.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.265	0.323
On-target allowed per possession	0.106	0.120
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.191	0.257
Opponents' inside-box share	71.9%	79.7%
Save rate	65.8%	60.7%
Saves, last 5	4.4	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.11	1.99
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	228	419
Fouls, last 5	12.2	11.2
Cards, last 5	2.2	2.0

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 29.4% · Draw 22.8% · Away 47.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Burton Albion v Leyton Orient

league-one · 14:00 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	14	12
Position last season	17	20
Points this season	14	14
Goal difference this season	-2	+3
Elo rating going in	1,362	1,367
Matches on record, all seasons	507	339
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	7
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	0.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	0.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	1.4
Goals conceded, last 10	1.6	1.0
Clean sheets, last 10	2	5
Failed to score, last 10	3	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	2	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	4	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.8	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.6	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	0.4
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.0	12.8
Shots on target, last 5	3.8	4.0
Shots per possession	0.235	0.242
On-target shots per possession	0.073	0.077
Inside-box shots per possession	0.143	0.145
Share of shots from inside the box	56.3%	58.1%
Expected goals, last 5	1.09	1.83
Possession, last 5	49.8%	46.4%
Corners, last 5	5.0	3.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.285	0.299
On-target allowed per possession	0.087	0.089
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.217	0.197
Opponents' inside-box share	75.5%	65.7%
Save rate	60.1%	67.8%
Saves, last 5	2.6	2.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.56	1.22
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	401	349
Fouls, last 5	10.0	12.4
Cards, last 5	2.2	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	2
Drawn	3
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	6
Goals, away side	8

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 36.0% · Draw 28.5% · Away 35.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Cambridge United v Plymouth

league-one · 14:00 UK

Finished 2–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	4	5
Position last season	—	8
Points this season	20	19
Goal difference this season	+4	+1
Elo rating going in	1,357	1,461
Matches on record, all seasons	195	380
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	6
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	1.6
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	1	3
Failed to score, last 10	0	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	8	0
Losses in a row	0	2
Days since last match	4	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.2	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	1.8
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	1.8
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	16.4	15.4
Shots on target, last 5	5.0	4.0
Shots per possession	0.276	0.323
On-target shots per possession	0.092	0.108
Inside-box shots per possession	0.205	0.220
Share of shots from inside the box	72.7%	68.0%
Expected goals, last 5	1.65	1.19
Possession, last 5	52.6%	52.8%
Corners, last 5	10.4	4.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.228	0.263
On-target allowed per possession	0.071	0.079
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.150	0.204
Opponents' inside-box share	65.8%	77.7%
Save rate	64.8%	66.1%
Saves, last 5	2.4	3.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.44	1.79
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	353	392
Fouls, last 5	9.8	13.0
Cards, last 5	2.4	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	1
Drawn	2
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	4
Goals, away side	4

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 38.9% · Draw 25.9% · Away 35.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Cardiff v Birmingham

championship · 14:00 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	17	5
Position last season	2	10
Points this season	11	20
Goal difference this season	+1	+9
Elo rating going in	1,490	1,577
Matches on record, all seasons	689	741
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	13
Goals scored, last 5	2.2	2.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	0.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.7	2.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.6	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	0	3
Failed to score, last 10	2	0
Wins in a row	0	3
Unbeaten run	2	5
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	16.6	15.6
Shots on target, last 5	6.4	6.2
Shots per possession	0.302	0.272
On-target shots per possession	0.110	0.101
Inside-box shots per possession	0.213	0.204
Share of shots from inside the box	71.4%	74.8%
Expected goals, last 5	1.91	2.07
Possession, last 5	56.0%	54.4%
Corners, last 5	6.4	4.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.347	0.274
On-target allowed per possession	0.143	0.085
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.244	0.197
Opponents' inside-box share	68.3%	71.6%
Save rate	66.2%	68.5%
Saves, last 5	4.4	2.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.03	0.94
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	464	423
Fouls, last 5	10.2	11.2
Cards, last 5	2.2	2.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	22
Home side won	11
Drawn	8
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	31
Goals, away side	17

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 34.7% · Draw 25.2% · Away 40.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Coventry v Fulham

premier-league · 14:00 UK

Finished 0–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	17	15
Position last season	1	11
Points this season	6	5
Goal difference this season	-8	-3
Elo rating going in	1,631	1,684
Matches on record, all seasons	644	671
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	5
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.8	1.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.6	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	2	3
Failed to score, last 10	4	3
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	5	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.4	15.6
Shots on target, last 5	3.8	5.4
Shots per possession	0.294	0.265
On-target shots per possession	0.100	0.084
Inside-box shots per possession	0.194	0.184
Share of shots from inside the box	62.2%	69.4%
Expected goals, last 5	1.16	1.68
Possession, last 5	31.4%	56.0%
Corners, last 5	3.6	6.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.266	0.296
On-target allowed per possession	0.074	0.091
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.162	0.182
Opponents' inside-box share	57.9%	59.5%
Save rate	55.2%	67.3%
Saves, last 5	2.4	2.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.38	0.70
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	267	560
Fouls, last 5	10.6	9.2
Cards, last 5	1.4	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	2
Drawn	0
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	7
Goals, away side	2

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 30.1% · Draw 27.4% · Away 42.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Doncaster v Sheffield Wednesday

league-one · 14:00 UK

Finished 2–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	19	6
Position last season	14	24
Points this season	9	18
Goal difference this season	-3	+10
Elo rating going in	1,350	1,375
Matches on record, all seasons	506	710
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	6
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.0	2.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.0
Clean sheets, last 10	3	3
Failed to score, last 10	3	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	2	1
Days since last match	4	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.2	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	1.4
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.0	12.8
Shots on target, last 5	3.6	4.2
Shots per possession	0.279	0.250
On-target shots per possession	0.072	0.092
Inside-box shots per possession	0.167	0.176
Share of shots from inside the box	59.2%	69.8%
Expected goals, last 5	0.50	1.60
Possession, last 5	43.8%	56.4%
Corners, last 5	4.2	4.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.270	0.295
On-target allowed per possession	0.087	0.068
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.193	0.196
Opponents' inside-box share	70.5%	64.9%
Save rate	72.1%	68.3%
Saves, last 5	3.2	1.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.04	1.56
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	357	486
Fouls, last 5	9.8	10.8
Cards, last 5	2.4	2.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	2
Drawn	0
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	3
Goals, away side	5

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 35.2% · Draw 25.7% · Away 39.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Dundee Utd v Aberdeen

scottish-prem · 14:00 UK

Finished 3–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	6	7
Position last season	7	9
Points this season	12	11
Goal difference this season	-1	+0
Elo rating going in	1,517	1,483
Matches on record, all seasons	425	606
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	8
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	0.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	3	2
Failed to score, last 10	3	5
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	4	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.2	13.8
Shots on target, last 5	6.8	4.0
Shots per possession	0.279	0.261
On-target shots per possession	0.105	0.075
Inside-box shots per possession	0.183	0.152
Share of shots from inside the box	63.0%	57.5%
Expected goals, last 5	1.46	1.80
Possession, last 5	49.8%	46.6%
Corners, last 5	7.8	6.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.319	0.272
On-target allowed per possession	0.110	0.096
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.207	0.175
Opponents' inside-box share	64.6%	66.4%
Save rate	71.4%	73.5%
Saves, last 5	3.0	3.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.09	1.07
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	412	408
Fouls, last 5	12.6	12.2
Cards, last 5	2.8	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	37
Home side won	11
Drawn	10
Away side won	16
Goals, home side	37
Goals, away side	42

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 45.1% · Draw 26.7% · Away 28.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Falkirk v Kilmarnock

scottish-prem · 14:00 UK

Finished 3–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	9	11
Position last season	6	10
Points this season	9	8
Goal difference this season	-3	-10
Elo rating going in	1,525	1,486
Matches on record, all seasons	47	570
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	8
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	1.4
Goals conceded, last 10	1.7	2.1
Clean sheets, last 10	1	2
Failed to score, last 10	2	3
Wins in a row	1	1
Unbeaten run	1	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.8	11.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.4	4.4
Shots per possession	0.244	0.255
On-target shots per possession	0.077	0.099
Inside-box shots per possession	0.158	0.194
Share of shots from inside the box	64.2%	77.0%
Expected goals, last 5	1.37	1.39
Possession, last 5	44.0%	42.0%
Corners, last 5	4.4	4.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.299	0.299
On-target allowed per possession	0.113	0.101
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.210	0.218
Opponents' inside-box share	69.2%	71.0%
Save rate	71.4%	67.1%
Saves, last 5	5.0	3.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.42	1.98
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	375	366
Fouls, last 5	15.8	11.6
Cards, last 5	1.8	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	3
Home side won	3
Drawn	0
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	9
Goals, away side	2

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 50.3% · Draw 25.1% · Away 24.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Lincoln v Burnley

championship · 14:00 UK

Finished 4–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	16	21
Position last season	1	19
Points this season	12	8
Goal difference this season	-10	-5
Elo rating going in	1,551	1,539
Matches on record, all seasons	325	629
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	5
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	2.6	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	0.8	1.4
Goals conceded, last 10	1.7	1.9
Clean sheets, last 10	4	1
Failed to score, last 10	3	0
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	1	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	7	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.6	14.8
Shots on target, last 5	2.6	4.8
Shots per possession	0.298	0.290
On-target shots per possession	0.079	0.084
Inside-box shots per possession	0.208	0.165
Share of shots from inside the box	67.9%	57.3%
Expected goals, last 5	0.83	1.34
Possession, last 5	36.4%	46.8%
Corners, last 5	2.6	4.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.256	0.304
On-target allowed per possession	0.089	0.118
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.145	0.205
Opponents' inside-box share	56.7%	70.4%
Save rate	64.3%	59.8%
Saves, last 5	3.4	3.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.90	1.54
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	232	423
Fouls, last 5	13.0	8.6
Cards, last 5	3.4	1.8

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 34.9% · Draw 26.8% · Away 38.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Notts County v Stockport County

league-one · 14:00 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	18	1
Position last season	—	3
Points this season	10	22
Goal difference this season	-3	+12
Elo rating going in	1,380	1,497
Matches on record, all seasons	194	108
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	13
Goals scored, last 5	0.6	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	0.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.0	2.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.0
Clean sheets, last 10	1	5
Failed to score, last 10	3	2
Wins in a row	1	4
Unbeaten run	1	5
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	4	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.0	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	1.8
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	0.6
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.8	16.6
Shots on target, last 5	2.0	4.4
Shots per possession	0.225	0.286
On-target shots per possession	0.064	0.088
Inside-box shots per possession	0.118	0.219
Share of shots from inside the box	50.2%	76.0%
Expected goals, last 5	1.20	2.28
Possession, last 5	49.8%	61.4%
Corners, last 5	3.6	7.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.217	0.224
On-target allowed per possession	0.070	0.090
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.143	0.157
Opponents' inside-box share	63.1%	69.4%
Save rate	63.4%	68.5%
Saves, last 5	2.4	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.96	0.66
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	398	574
Fouls, last 5	14.8	8.8
Cards, last 5	3.0	1.0

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 16.8% · Draw 23.4% · Away 59.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Oxford United v Bradford

league-one · 14:00 UK

Finished 0–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	7	3
Position last season	23	4
Points this season	18	21
Goal difference this season	+8	+5
Elo rating going in	1,479	1,436
Matches on record, all seasons	466	340
Recent form
Points, last 5	11	9
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	0.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.8	0.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	0.5
Clean sheets, last 10	2	7
Failed to score, last 10	1	3
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	6	7
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	4	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	2.4	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.0	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	0.6
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	0.6
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.0	11.6
Shots on target, last 5	4.8	2.0
Shots per possession	0.224	0.201
On-target shots per possession	0.086	0.059
Inside-box shots per possession	0.127	0.150
Share of shots from inside the box	57.1%	75.8%
Expected goals, last 5	1.36	1.53
Possession, last 5	58.8%	51.8%
Corners, last 5	4.6	8.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.301	0.241
On-target allowed per possession	0.069	0.044
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.215	0.136
Opponents' inside-box share	67.7%	57.9%
Save rate	66.0%	74.2%
Saves, last 5	1.4	2.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.56	0.91
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	453	366
Fouls, last 5	12.2	16.2
Cards, last 5	2.0	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	2
Drawn	1
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	6
Goals, away side	8

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 36.4% · Draw 27.9% · Away 35.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Preston v West Brom

championship · 14:00 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	24	6
Position last season	14	19
Points this season	4	20
Goal difference this season	-15	+3
Elo rating going in	1,423	1,524
Matches on record, all seasons	706	679
Recent form
Points, last 5	1	7
Goals scored, last 5	0.6	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	2.4	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	0.8	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	2.2	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	0	2
Failed to score, last 10	4	2
Wins in a row	0	2
Unbeaten run	0	2
Losses in a row	3	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.8	13.4
Shots on target, last 5	1.8	3.2
Shots per possession	0.293	0.207
On-target shots per possession	0.059	0.065
Inside-box shots per possession	0.188	0.150
Share of shots from inside the box	65.0%	71.5%
Expected goals, last 5	0.66	1.95
Possession, last 5	40.0%	58.8%
Corners, last 5	5.6	6.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.272	0.245
On-target allowed per possession	0.076	0.088
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.171	0.184
Opponents' inside-box share	64.2%	73.5%
Save rate	65.0%	74.4%
Saves, last 5	3.0	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.80	1.30
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	299	523
Fouls, last 5	11.2	10.4
Cards, last 5	1.8	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	14
Home side won	2
Drawn	2
Away side won	10
Goals, home side	10
Goals, away side	28

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 25.7% · Draw 26.9% · Away 47.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

QPR v Swansea

championship · 14:00 UK

Finished 5–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	8	1
Position last season	15	11
Points this season	17	23
Goal difference this season	+3	+8
Elo rating going in	1,500	1,578
Matches on record, all seasons	680	650
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	12
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	1.4
Goals conceded, last 10	1.1	0.7
Clean sheets, last 10	2	5
Failed to score, last 10	4	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	1
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.0	12.0
Shots on target, last 5	4.8	4.0
Shots per possession	0.283	0.231
On-target shots per possession	0.104	0.081
Inside-box shots per possession	0.173	0.130
Share of shots from inside the box	63.4%	54.4%
Expected goals, last 5	1.33	1.72
Possession, last 5	45.6%	52.0%
Corners, last 5	3.8	3.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.238	0.267
On-target allowed per possession	0.067	0.076
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.158	0.190
Opponents' inside-box share	69.2%	71.0%
Save rate	68.6%	71.4%
Saves, last 5	3.2	3.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.30	0.99
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	414	528
Fouls, last 5	9.6	9.6
Cards, last 5	3.0	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	22
Home side won	6
Drawn	6
Away side won	10
Goals, home side	19
Goals, away side	31

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 37.4% · Draw 28.1% · Away 34.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Rangers v ST Johnstone

scottish-prem · 14:00 UK

Finished 4–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	2	5
Position last season	3	—
Points this season	20	12
Goal difference this season	+6	+0
Elo rating going in	1,731	1,432
Matches on record, all seasons	451	570
Recent form
Points, last 5	13	8
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	0.6	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.8	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	0.9	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	4	1
Failed to score, last 10	0	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	7	3
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	19.8	8.4
Shots on target, last 5	6.8	3.6
Shots per possession	0.362	0.211
On-target shots per possession	0.127	0.070
Inside-box shots per possession	0.239	0.140
Share of shots from inside the box	64.6%	67.9%
Expected goals, last 5	1.66	1.24
Possession, last 5	52.0%	43.0%
Corners, last 5	7.4	2.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.225	0.275
On-target allowed per possession	0.075	0.100
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.163	0.181
Opponents' inside-box share	72.9%	67.7%
Save rate	74.4%	78.4%
Saves, last 5	2.8	4.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.51	1.22
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	446	375
Fouls, last 5	12.8	11.4
Cards, last 5	1.4	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	35
Home side won	27
Drawn	6
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	77
Goals, away side	20

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 78.3% · Draw 14.2% · Away 7.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Reading v Barnsley

league-one · 14:00 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	6	22
Position last season	12	15
Points this season	18	8
Goal difference this season	+11	-9
Elo rating going in	1,423	1,344
Matches on record, all seasons	696	710
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	1
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	2.2
Goals scored, last 10	2.0	1.0
Goals conceded, last 10	0.8	1.9
Clean sheets, last 10	4	1
Failed to score, last 10	2	3
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	1	0
Losses in a row	0	3
Days since last match	3	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	2.4	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	0.4	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	1.0
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	1.8
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.2	16.6
Shots on target, last 5	4.8	5.0
Shots per possession	0.338	0.347
On-target shots per possession	0.110	0.107
Inside-box shots per possession	0.241	0.230
Share of shots from inside the box	73.4%	64.7%
Expected goals, last 5	2.39	1.59
Possession, last 5	46.2%	47.6%
Corners, last 5	5.8	6.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.237	0.294
On-target allowed per possession	0.074	0.098
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.145	0.213
Opponents' inside-box share	62.9%	68.5%
Save rate	73.6%	54.3%
Saves, last 5	3.6	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.62	2.15
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	346	308
Fouls, last 5	10.8	15.4
Cards, last 5	2.0	3.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	20
Home side won	6
Drawn	9
Away side won	5
Goals, home side	32
Goals, away side	27

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 58.5% · Draw 21.5% · Away 20.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

ST Mirren v Dundee

scottish-prem · 14:00 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	8	4
Position last season	11	8
Points this season	10	14
Goal difference this season	-8	+3
Elo rating going in	1,468	1,508
Matches on record, all seasons	494	393
Recent form
Points, last 5	0	8
Goals scored, last 5	0.4	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	2.8	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.0	1.6
Goals conceded, last 10	1.7	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	4	2
Failed to score, last 10	3	1
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	3
Losses in a row	5	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.0	11.4
Shots on target, last 5	3.2	5.0
Shots per possession	0.279	0.292
On-target shots per possession	0.081	0.113
Inside-box shots per possession	0.172	0.207
Share of shots from inside the box	61.9%	70.4%
Expected goals, last 5	0.88	1.62
Possession, last 5	52.6%	43.6%
Corners, last 5	3.6	5.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.320	0.307
On-target allowed per possession	0.117	0.085
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.229	0.193
Opponents' inside-box share	71.7%	62.9%
Save rate	64.8%	74.9%
Saves, last 5	4.4	4.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.92	1.87
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	461	341
Fouls, last 5	13.2	13.4
Cards, last 5	2.4	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	26
Home side won	12
Drawn	4
Away side won	10
Goals, home side	36
Goals, away side	33

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 41.7% · Draw 25.9% · Away 32.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Stevenage v Milton Keynes Dons

league-one · 14:00 UK

Finished 0–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	9	20
Position last season	6	—
Points this season	15	9
Goal difference this season	+5	-7
Elo rating going in	1,428	1,368
Matches on record, all seasons	290	509
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	5
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.0	1.8
Clean sheets, last 10	3	2
Failed to score, last 10	3	3
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	1	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	4	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.8	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.0	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	2.0
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.8	12.4
Shots on target, last 5	4.2	2.8
Shots per possession	0.292	0.283
On-target shots per possession	0.098	0.065
Inside-box shots per possession	0.215	0.199
Share of shots from inside the box	73.9%	69.2%
Expected goals, last 5	1.50	1.10
Possession, last 5	43.0%	47.4%
Corners, last 5	3.6	4.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.203	0.297
On-target allowed per possession	0.045	0.103
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.114	0.200
Opponents' inside-box share	54.5%	66.7%
Save rate	59.2%	66.2%
Saves, last 5	0.6	2.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.02	2.01
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	329	337
Fouls, last 5	12.2	14.4
Cards, last 5	2.2	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	2
Drawn	0
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	8
Goals, away side	12

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 48.1% · Draw 28.2% · Away 23.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Stoke City v Bristol City

championship · 14:00 UK

Finished 0–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	7	15
Position last season	17	12
Points this season	19	14
Goal difference this season	+2	-3
Elo rating going in	1,486	1,498
Matches on record, all seasons	683	703
Recent form
Points, last 5	12	4
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	0.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.7	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	3	1
Failed to score, last 10	0	3
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	1	0
Losses in a row	0	2
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.6	15.0
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	4.4
Shots per possession	0.274	0.323
On-target shots per possession	0.089	0.102
Inside-box shots per possession	0.165	0.231
Share of shots from inside the box	59.2%	70.0%
Expected goals, last 5	0.69	1.39
Possession, last 5	47.0%	51.6%
Corners, last 5	5.6	6.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.307	0.197
On-target allowed per possession	0.090	0.049
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.220	0.127
Opponents' inside-box share	69.8%	63.4%
Save rate	70.3%	61.1%
Saves, last 5	3.4	1.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.23	1.14
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	376	391
Fouls, last 5	9.4	11.8
Cards, last 5	1.8	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	16
Home side won	6
Drawn	2
Away side won	8
Goals, home side	22
Goals, away side	21

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 38.5% · Draw 29.2% · Away 32.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

West Ham v Southampton

championship · 14:00 UK

Finished 2–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	2	4
Position last season	18	4
Points this season	22	21
Goal difference this season	+18	+11
Elo rating going in	1,681	1,626
Matches on record, all seasons	630	610
Recent form
Points, last 5	11	10
Goals scored, last 5	3.2	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	0.6	0.6
Goals scored, last 10	2.8	2.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.0	0.8
Clean sheets, last 10	4	3
Failed to score, last 10	0	1
Wins in a row	2	0
Unbeaten run	9	3
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Scored away, last 5 there	2.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	17.4	13.2
Shots on target, last 5	7.2	4.2
Shots per possession	0.287	0.273
On-target shots per possession	0.113	0.083
Inside-box shots per possession	0.200	0.199
Share of shots from inside the box	69.2%	73.5%
Expected goals, last 5	2.02	1.81
Possession, last 5	59.8%	56.0%
Corners, last 5	6.0	3.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.272	0.325
On-target allowed per possession	0.085	0.086
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.183	0.238
Opponents' inside-box share	62.8%	70.6%
Save rate	64.5%	73.5%
Saves, last 5	1.2	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.90	1.10
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	498	536
Fouls, last 5	11.8	8.2
Cards, last 5	2.4	2.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	26
Home side won	12
Drawn	8
Away side won	6
Goals, home side	38
Goals, away side	24

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 56.7% · Draw 22.0% · Away 21.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Wolves v Watford

championship · 14:00 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	8	20
Position last season	20	16
Points this season	18	11
Goal difference this season	+3	-9
Elo rating going in	1,585	1,447
Matches on record, all seasons	667	656
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	3
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	2.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.7	0.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.8
Clean sheets, last 10	2	1
Failed to score, last 10	1	4
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	2	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	4	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.8	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.4	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	16.2	13.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.2	4.8
Shots per possession	0.293	0.273
On-target shots per possession	0.087	0.096
Inside-box shots per possession	0.203	0.174
Share of shots from inside the box	68.8%	61.7%
Expected goals, last 5	1.45	1.68
Possession, last 5	53.2%	49.8%
Corners, last 5	7.0	4.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.235	0.315
On-target allowed per possession	0.075	0.108
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.141	0.208
Opponents' inside-box share	59.0%	66.9%
Save rate	68.0%	69.7%
Saves, last 5	2.6	4.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.10	2.31
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	453	408
Fouls, last 5	12.2	11.8
Cards, last 5	2.2	2.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	10
Home side won	5
Drawn	2
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	16
Goals, away side	10

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 69.2% · Draw 18.8% · Away 12.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Leganes v Mallorca

laliga-2 · 14:15 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	17	4
Position last season	16	17
Points this season	11	18
Goal difference this season	-9	+7
Elo rating going in	1,418	1,572
Matches on record, all seasons	412	480
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	8
Goals scored, last 5	0.6	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	2.4	0.6
Goals scored, last 10	0.6	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	0.5
Clean sheets, last 10	3	6
Failed to score, last 10	6	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	3
Losses in a row	4	0
Days since last match	8	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.0	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	0.4
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	0.6
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.8	12.6
Shots on target, last 5	3.6	3.4
Shots per possession	0.238	0.246
On-target shots per possession	0.078	0.080
Inside-box shots per possession	0.134	0.130
Share of shots from inside the box	56.2%	56.1%
Expected goals, last 5	0.61	1.44
Possession, last 5	43.6%	54.0%
Corners, last 5	4.2	6.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.326	0.227
On-target allowed per possession	0.097	0.068
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.213	0.128
Opponents' inside-box share	65.0%	56.9%
Save rate	69.8%	82.1%
Saves, last 5	4.2	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.68	1.42
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	366	454
Fouls, last 5	17.2	16.8
Cards, last 5	3.8	3.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	1
Drawn	2
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	2
Goals, away side	4

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 29.1% · Draw 30.3% · Away 40.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Racing Santander v Espanyol

la-liga · 14:15 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	16	12
Position last season	1	11
Points this season	8	8
Goal difference this season	-12	-1
Elo rating going in	1,546	1,547
Matches on record, all seasons	297	629
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	4
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	3.4	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.7	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	2.6	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	0	2
Failed to score, last 10	3	1
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	1
Days since last match	6	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	3.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.2	13.4
Shots on target, last 5	4.8	3.6
Shots per possession	0.253	0.269
On-target shots per possession	0.099	0.085
Inside-box shots per possession	0.153	0.154
Share of shots from inside the box	61.3%	55.8%
Expected goals, last 5	0.83	0.88
Possession, last 5	51.4%	44.4%
Corners, last 5	3.8	3.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.314	0.210
On-target allowed per possession	0.126	0.091
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.200	0.128
Opponents' inside-box share	62.4%	60.7%
Save rate	61.1%	68.2%
Saves, last 5	3.8	3.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.56	1.09
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	460	362
Fouls, last 5	12.8	15.6
Cards, last 5	3.2	2.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	2
Drawn	1
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	5
Goals, away side	7

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 40.0% · Draw 26.0% · Away 34.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Estrela v Casa Pia

primeira-liga · 14:30 UK

Finished 0–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	9	17
Position last season	15	16
Points this season	10	4
Goal difference this season	-1	-14
Elo rating going in	1,515	1,511
Matches on record, all seasons	112	146
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	4
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	0.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	0.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.7	1.7
Clean sheets, last 10	1	3
Failed to score, last 10	3	7
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	2	1
Days since last match	13	14
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.6
Scored away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.0	10.4
Shots on target, last 5	3.8	3.0
Shots per possession	0.236	0.227
On-target shots per possession	0.088	0.077
Inside-box shots per possession	0.163	0.138
Share of shots from inside the box	68.9%	64.0%
Expected goals, last 5	1.48	0.64
Possession, last 5	52.4%	42.2%
Corners, last 5	5.2	4.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.226	0.272
On-target allowed per possession	0.092	0.081
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.132	0.170
Opponents' inside-box share	58.7%	61.4%
Save rate	64.7%	64.1%
Saves, last 5	2.4	3.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.78	0.48
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	80.0%
Passes, last 5	433	305
Fouls, last 5	10.4	12.2
Cards, last 5	2.4	2.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	4
Drawn	0
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	13
Goals, away side	6

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 55.4% · Draw 25.2% · Away 19.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Utrecht v PEC Zwolle

eredivisie · 14:30 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	11	15
Position last season	6	15
Points this season	11	7
Goal difference this season	-10	-12
Elo rating going in	1,640	1,483
Matches on record, all seasons	574	447
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	4
Goals scored, last 5	2.0	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	2.2	2.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	1.0
Goals conceded, last 10	2.6	2.4
Clean sheets, last 10	1	1
Failed to score, last 10	2	5
Wins in a row	2	1
Unbeaten run	2	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	6	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.8
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.4	12.8
Shots on target, last 5	5.0	5.0
Shots per possession	0.295	0.251
On-target shots per possession	0.101	0.086
Inside-box shots per possession	0.209	0.153
Share of shots from inside the box	71.4%	57.4%
Expected goals, last 5	1.31	1.44
Possession, last 5	44.6%	43.4%
Corners, last 5	4.6	5.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.322	0.329
On-target allowed per possession	0.121	0.117
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.204	0.213
Opponents' inside-box share	66.1%	64.9%
Save rate	62.3%	65.5%
Saves, last 5	3.8	4.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.01	1.82
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	433	383
Fouls, last 5	14.6	10.8
Cards, last 5	1.6	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	28
Home side won	12
Drawn	11
Away side won	5
Goals, home side	53
Goals, away side	36

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 58.5% · Draw 21.8% · Away 19.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Napoli v AS Roma

serie-a · 16:00 UK

Finished 3–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	9	2
Position last season	2	3
Points this season	10	17
Goal difference this season	+3	+13
Elo rating going in	1,746	1,779
Matches on record, all seasons	615	615
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	11
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	0.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	2.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.0	0.5
Clean sheets, last 10	5	7
Failed to score, last 10	1	1
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	14
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	18.4	19.0
Shots on target, last 5	6.6	5.2
Shots per possession	0.272	0.310
On-target shots per possession	0.094	0.108
Inside-box shots per possession	0.195	0.223
Share of shots from inside the box	66.8%	72.0%
Expected goals, last 5	2.22	1.54
Possession, last 5	55.0%	52.4%
Corners, last 5	7.6	6.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.285	0.228
On-target allowed per possession	0.083	0.071
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.189	0.133
Opponents' inside-box share	65.8%	58.4%
Save rate	69.1%	75.4%
Saves, last 5	2.8	2.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.72	1.28
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	89.5%	83.0%
Passes, last 5	525	496
Fouls, last 5	9.0	12.2
Cards, last 5	0.8	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	32
Home side won	15
Drawn	8
Away side won	9
Goals, home side	46
Goals, away side	34

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 34.7% · Draw 28.4% · Away 36.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Samsunspor v Amed

super-lig · 16:00 UK

Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	17	2
Position last season	7	—
Points this season	4	17
Goal difference this season	-12	+9
Elo rating going in	1,610	1,663
Matches on record, all seasons	150	8
Recent form
Points, last 5	0	11
Goals scored, last 5	0.4	2.6
Goals conceded, last 5	2.8	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.0	—
Goals conceded, last 10	2.2	—
Clean sheets, last 10	2	3
Failed to score, last 10	5	1
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	6
Losses in a row	6	0
Days since last match	6	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Scored away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	16.2	14.8
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	5.2
Shots per possession	0.237	0.315
On-target shots per possession	0.064	0.115
Inside-box shots per possession	0.138	0.172
Share of shots from inside the box	55.2%	53.4%
Expected goals, last 5	0.95	2.13
Possession, last 5	56.2%	46.8%
Corners, last 5	6.4	4.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.398	0.192
On-target allowed per possession	0.149	0.071
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.270	0.103
Opponents' inside-box share	66.7%	52.7%
Save rate	65.9%	67.4%
Saves, last 5	3.2	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.72	0.79
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	85.2%	78.8%
Passes, last 5	521	384
Fouls, last 5	15.8	14.2
Cards, last 5	1.2	3.6

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 27.2% · Draw 26.1% · Away 46.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Borussia Dortmund v Eintracht Frankfurt

bundesliga · 16:30 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	8
Position last season	2	8
Points this season	14	8
Goal difference this season	+7	-6
Elo rating going in	1,743	1,585
Matches on record, all seasons	550	516
Recent form
Points, last 5	11	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	2.6
Goals scored, last 10	2.0	1.6
Goals conceded, last 10	0.7	2.4
Clean sheets, last 10	6	1
Failed to score, last 10	2	1
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	8	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.8	15.2
Shots on target, last 5	5.0	6.4
Shots per possession	0.259	0.260
On-target shots per possession	0.098	0.108
Inside-box shots per possession	0.191	0.179
Share of shots from inside the box	75.1%	67.5%
Expected goals, last 5	1.96	1.68
Possession, last 5	54.8%	51.0%
Corners, last 5	5.2	6.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.238	0.332
On-target allowed per possession	0.073	0.137
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.139	0.235
Opponents' inside-box share	58.4%	70.3%
Save rate	74.9%	66.3%
Saves, last 5	2.2	4.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.04	2.46
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	528	445
Fouls, last 5	11.0	10.4
Cards, last 5	2.6	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	30
Home side won	17
Drawn	7
Away side won	6
Goals, home side	70
Goals, away side	40

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 63.7% · Draw 19.7% · Away 16.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Chelsea v Tottenham

premier-league · 16:30 UK

Finished 0–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	4	15
Position last season	10	17
Points this season	13	6
Goal difference this season	+4	-4
Elo rating going in	1,761	1,643
Matches on record, all seasons	615	615
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	6
Goals scored, last 5	2.0	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	2.1	0.9
Goals conceded, last 10	1.7	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	1	3
Failed to score, last 10	1	4
Wins in a row	2	1
Unbeaten run	2	2
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	5
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.0	14.6
Shots on target, last 5	5.4	3.4
Shots per possession	0.283	0.247
On-target shots per possession	0.112	0.059
Inside-box shots per possession	0.182	0.166
Share of shots from inside the box	59.2%	66.7%
Expected goals, last 5	1.38	1.29
Possession, last 5	53.2%	61.2%
Corners, last 5	6.8	6.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.257	0.320
On-target allowed per possession	0.107	0.086
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.187	0.216
Opponents' inside-box share	74.6%	65.5%
Save rate	72.2%	63.1%
Saves, last 5	4.4	2.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.03	0.83
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	485	542
Fouls, last 5	10.4	13.6
Cards, last 5	1.8	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	32
Home side won	18
Drawn	9
Away side won	5
Goals, home side	57
Goals, away side	35

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 52.9% · Draw 23.7% · Away 23.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Girona v Celta de Vigo II

laliga-2 · 16:30 UK

Finished 5–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	5	14
Position last season	19	—
Points this season	18	12
Goal difference this season	+8	-1
Elo rating going in	1,572	1,444
Matches on record, all seasons	418	10
Recent form
Points, last 5	11	5
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	0.4	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.7	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	0.9	1.6
Clean sheets, last 10	4	2
Failed to score, last 10	1	3
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	5	2
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	6	5
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	2.0	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	0.8	1.8
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.4	11.4
Shots on target, last 5	4.6	4.4
Shots per possession	0.290	0.259
On-target shots per possession	0.103	0.104
Inside-box shots per possession	0.162	0.158
Share of shots from inside the box	55.3%	59.7%
Expected goals, last 5	1.23	1.50
Possession, last 5	49.8%	49.8%
Corners, last 5	3.4	3.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.244	0.292
On-target allowed per possession	0.081	0.107
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.149	0.189
Opponents' inside-box share	58.1%	64.9%
Save rate	78.2%	66.2%
Saves, last 5	3.2	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.56	1.14
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	430	450
Fouls, last 5	11.4	11.8
Cards, last 5	2.2	2.4

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 69.3% · Draw 19.4% · Away 11.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Las Palmas v Real Sociedad II

laliga-2 · 16:30 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	16	19
Position last season	5	15
Points this season	11	8
Goal difference this season	-6	-7
Elo rating going in	1,494	1,371
Matches on record, all seasons	456	94
Recent form
Points, last 5	1	0
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	2.6	3.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	1.4
Goals conceded, last 10	1.9	2.1
Clean sheets, last 10	3	0
Failed to score, last 10	2	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	2	5
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.0	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.6	2.0
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.0	15.2
Shots on target, last 5	3.0	4.8
Shots per possession	0.183	0.309
On-target shots per possession	0.066	0.102
Inside-box shots per possession	0.108	0.190
Share of shots from inside the box	58.8%	60.7%
Expected goals, last 5	0.33	1.74
Possession, last 5	49.2%	44.6%
Corners, last 5	3.6	5.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.282	0.250
On-target allowed per possession	0.103	0.085
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.196	0.169
Opponents' inside-box share	68.3%	66.0%
Save rate	63.3%	61.9%
Saves, last 5	3.2	2.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.60	1.94
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	433	376
Fouls, last 5	13.0	16.6
Cards, last 5	4.4	3.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	2
Drawn	2
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	4
Goals, away side	2

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 47.8% · Draw 25.8% · Away 26.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Valencia v Villarreal

la-liga · 16:30 UK

Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	19	9
Position last season	9	3
Points this season	6	9
Goal difference this season	-9	+0
Elo rating going in	1,590	1,690
Matches on record, all seasons	617	579
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	0.9	1.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.6	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	3	1
Failed to score, last 10	5	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	2	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	0.4	2.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.8	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.2	17.2
Shots on target, last 5	2.6	6.6
Shots per possession	0.298	0.272
On-target shots per possession	0.079	0.112
Inside-box shots per possession	0.192	0.185
Share of shots from inside the box	62.8%	68.0%
Expected goals, last 5	1.60	1.43
Possession, last 5	49.6%	59.8%
Corners, last 5	4.2	7.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.271	0.291
On-target allowed per possession	0.090	0.087
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.165	0.180
Opponents' inside-box share	60.4%	63.5%
Save rate	69.5%	66.7%
Saves, last 5	3.8	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.00	0.89
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	422	568
Fouls, last 5	11.8	10.2
Cards, last 5	2.8	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	30
Home side won	10
Drawn	7
Away side won	13
Goals, home side	36
Goals, away side	36

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 30.0% · Draw 26.3% · Away 43.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Willem II v Cambuur

eredivisie · 16:45 UK

Finished 1–6. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	18	13
Position last season	—	—
Points this season	2	9
Goal difference this season	-17	-8
Elo rating going in	1,374	1,386
Matches on record, all seasons	381	181
Recent form
Points, last 5	1	9
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	2.6	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.0	1.4
Goals conceded, last 10	2.9	2.2
Clean sheets, last 10	0	2
Failed to score, last 10	2	1
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	5
Losses in a row	4	0
Days since last match	7	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	3.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	3.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.0	11.2
Shots on target, last 5	3.0	4.6
Shots per possession	0.290	0.288
On-target shots per possession	0.071	0.102
Inside-box shots per possession	0.191	0.196
Share of shots from inside the box	66.5%	70.3%
Expected goals, last 5	0.95	1.21
Possession, last 5	40.4%	44.4%
Corners, last 5	3.2	3.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.336	0.273
On-target allowed per possession	0.119	0.110
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.242	0.190
Opponents' inside-box share	71.2%	70.6%
Save rate	60.3%	63.6%
Saves, last 5	4.2	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.42	1.31
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	371	341
Fouls, last 5	9.0	15.2
Cards, last 5	1.6	2.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	2
Drawn	3
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	9
Goals, away side	7

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 37.4% · Draw 25.6% · Away 37.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Alverca v Arouca

primeira-liga · 17:00 UK

Finished 0–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	7	5
Position last season	11	9
Points this season	11	14
Goal difference this season	+1	+4
Elo rating going in	1,591	1,605
Matches on record, all seasons	42	312
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	8
Goals scored, last 5	2.0	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	1.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	0.9
Clean sheets, last 10	1	4
Failed to score, last 10	2	2
Wins in a row	3	1
Unbeaten run	3	2
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	12	13
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.6	12.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.2	4.2
Shots per possession	0.246	0.222
On-target shots per possession	0.078	0.080
Inside-box shots per possession	0.153	0.134
Share of shots from inside the box	59.3%	60.3%
Expected goals, last 5	1.67	1.21
Possession, last 5	41.6%	50.2%
Corners, last 5	4.6	3.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.193	0.284
On-target allowed per possession	0.061	0.089
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.109	0.178
Opponents' inside-box share	52.0%	61.9%
Save rate	68.5%	75.7%
Saves, last 5	2.6	3.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.91	1.07
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	79.0%	85.0%
Passes, last 5	333	449
Fouls, last 5	16.0	11.6
Cards, last 5	1.8	3.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	1
Drawn	0
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	2
Goals, away side	2

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 44.1% · Draw 30.0% · Away 25.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Lazio v Parma

serie-a · 18:45 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	2	18
Position last season	9	12
Points this season	19	4
Goal difference this season	+10	-9
Elo rating going in	1,717	1,534
Matches on record, all seasons	615	387
Recent form
Points, last 5	13	4
Goals scored, last 5	2.4	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	0.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.0	1.7
Clean sheets, last 10	4	1
Failed to score, last 10	2	5
Wins in a row	3	0
Unbeaten run	8	0
Losses in a row	0	2
Days since last match	6	5
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.8	11.6
Shots on target, last 5	4.8	3.8
Shots per possession	0.245	0.229
On-target shots per possession	0.095	0.075
Inside-box shots per possession	0.134	0.152
Share of shots from inside the box	55.6%	70.2%
Expected goals, last 5	1.53	0.92
Possession, last 5	50.6%	43.2%
Corners, last 5	5.2	3.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.250	0.268
On-target allowed per possession	0.096	0.084
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.174	0.184
Opponents' inside-box share	70.0%	67.0%
Save rate	77.1%	69.5%
Saves, last 5	4.8	3.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.30	2.02
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	85.7%	80.0%
Passes, last 5	469	386
Fouls, last 5	9.8	10.2
Cards, last 5	1.6	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	20
Home side won	13
Drawn	5
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	34
Goals, away side	16

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 67.8% · Draw 20.6% · Away 11.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Lens v Paris FC

ligue-1 · 18:45 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	7	1
Position last season	2	11
Points this season	10	14
Goal difference this season	+3	+5
Elo rating going in	1,673	1,620
Matches on record, all seasons	299	41
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	10
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.9	1.9
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.0
Clean sheets, last 10	2	4
Failed to score, last 10	2	3
Wins in a row	2	1
Unbeaten run	2	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	2.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.6	15.4
Shots on target, last 5	5.2	6.0
Shots per possession	0.319	0.301
On-target shots per possession	0.126	0.111
Inside-box shots per possession	0.234	0.205
Share of shots from inside the box	73.2%	64.4%
Expected goals, last 5	1.42	2.32
Possession, last 5	51.8%	52.2%
Corners, last 5	7.2	4.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.254	0.197
On-target allowed per possession	0.092	0.067
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.170	0.127
Opponents' inside-box share	67.5%	65.7%
Save rate	71.8%	67.3%
Saves, last 5	3.6	2.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.16	1.99
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	506	558
Fouls, last 5	12.8	14.8
Cards, last 5	2.4	3.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	2
Drawn	0
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	7
Goals, away side	1

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 38.1% · Draw 26.8% · Away 35.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

ADO Den Haag v Heerenveen

eredivisie · 19:00 UK

Finished 2–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	16	8
Position last season	—	8
Points this season	6	12
Goal difference this season	-9	+4
Elo rating going in	1,427	1,573
Matches on record, all seasons	393	563
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	1.7
Goals conceded, last 10	2.1	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	0	4
Failed to score, last 10	3	3
Wins in a row	1	1
Unbeaten run	3	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.2	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	2.0	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.6	17.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.2	6.4
Shots per possession	0.231	0.273
On-target shots per possession	0.074	0.111
Inside-box shots per possession	0.138	0.176
Share of shots from inside the box	62.1%	65.2%
Expected goals, last 5	1.42	1.96
Possession, last 5	49.0%	51.6%
Corners, last 5	2.6	5.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.309	0.305
On-target allowed per possession	0.127	0.077
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.204	0.192
Opponents' inside-box share	66.8%	61.5%
Save rate	67.9%	66.7%
Saves, last 5	3.8	1.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.99	1.19
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	409	477
Fouls, last 5	16.0	10.0
Cards, last 5	2.2	1.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	22
Home side won	4
Drawn	9
Away side won	9
Goals, home side	22
Goals, away side	33

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 27.3% · Draw 24.8% · Away 47.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Almeria v Oviedo

laliga-2 · 19:00 UK

Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	6
Position last season	3	20
Points this season	24	17
Goal difference this season	+13	+3
Elo rating going in	1,560	1,516
Matches on record, all seasons	546	434
Recent form
Points, last 5	15	9
Goals scored, last 5	2.4	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	0.6	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	2.0	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	0.7	1.0
Clean sheets, last 10	5	5
Failed to score, last 10	2	3
Wins in a row	7	2
Unbeaten run	7	2
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	1.6
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.8	1.6
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.4	14.6
Shots on target, last 5	5.8	5.6
Shots per possession	0.231	0.311
On-target shots per possession	0.082	0.106
Inside-box shots per possession	0.153	0.173
Share of shots from inside the box	64.4%	54.2%
Expected goals, last 5	1.58	1.95
Possession, last 5	55.4%	48.0%
Corners, last 5	4.4	5.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.287	0.279
On-target allowed per possession	0.074	0.085
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.188	0.175
Opponents' inside-box share	68.0%	61.3%
Save rate	77.2%	72.1%
Saves, last 5	3.4	4.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.03	2.27
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	504	381
Fouls, last 5	14.6	13.6
Cards, last 5	1.6	3.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	16
Home side won	5
Drawn	5
Away side won	6
Goals, home side	20
Goals, away side	20

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 55.8% · Draw 25.3% · Away 18.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Atletico Madrid v Deportivo La Coruna

la-liga · 19:00 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	2	8
Position last season	4	2
Points this season	22	11
Goal difference this season	+11	+1
Elo rating going in	1,765	1,546
Matches on record, all seasons	617	407
Recent form
Points, last 5	15	3
Goals scored, last 5	2.4	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	0.4	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	2.0	1.4
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	4	0
Failed to score, last 10	1	1
Wins in a row	5	0
Unbeaten run	5	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	19.8	14.4
Shots on target, last 5	7.6	5.0
Shots per possession	0.284	0.236
On-target shots per possession	0.104	0.090
Inside-box shots per possession	0.171	0.161
Share of shots from inside the box	61.9%	65.5%
Expected goals, last 5	1.77	1.57
Possession, last 5	62.8%	53.2%
Corners, last 5	7.2	7.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.250	0.234
On-target allowed per possession	0.086	0.081
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.157	0.124
Opponents' inside-box share	64.3%	54.0%
Save rate	65.5%	66.7%
Saves, last 5	2.0	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.87	1.19
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	623	465
Fouls, last 5	11.6	12.0
Cards, last 5	2.4	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	12
Home side won	9
Drawn	3
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	21
Goals, away side	3

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 74.3% · Draw 16.2% · Away 9.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

GIL Vicente v FC Porto

primeira-liga · 19:30 UK

Finished 0–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	6	1
Position last season	6	1
Points this season	14	24
Goal difference this season	+2	+16
Elo rating going in	1,599	1,905
Matches on record, all seasons	370	536
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	15
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	2.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	0.9	2.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	0.7
Clean sheets, last 10	4	5
Failed to score, last 10	3	0
Wins in a row	2	9
Unbeaten run	3	9
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	5	14
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	2.4
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	1.0
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.8	16.8
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	6.6
Shots per possession	0.251	0.293
On-target shots per possession	0.068	0.115
Inside-box shots per possession	0.148	0.202
Share of shots from inside the box	58.2%	69.9%
Expected goals, last 5	1.52	1.83
Possession, last 5	51.8%	55.6%
Corners, last 5	3.0	5.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.235	0.238
On-target allowed per possession	0.064	0.068
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.131	0.121
Opponents' inside-box share	52.0%	50.5%
Save rate	67.3%	69.5%
Saves, last 5	2.2	2.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.26	0.54
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	84.0%
Passes, last 5	480	424
Fouls, last 5	12.2	14.4
Cards, last 5	2.2	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	22
Home side won	4
Drawn	3
Away side won	15
Goals, home side	18
Goals, away side	44

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 12.7% · Draw 20.5% · Away 66.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.