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The data behind the ratings

Sunday 25 October 2026 · everything below is a stored value, as it was that morning

Fortuna Sittard v Excelsior

eredivisie · 11:15 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	6	10
Position last season	11	13
Points this season	15	11
Goal difference this season	-1	-2
Elo rating going in	1,536	1,499
Matches on record, all seasons	273	359
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	2
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	3.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	1.9
Goals conceded, last 10	1.9	2.0
Clean sheets, last 10	1	2
Failed to score, last 10	2	1
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	3	0
Losses in a row	0	2
Days since last match	7	9
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	2.2	2.2
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	1.6
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.4	9.8
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	2.8
Shots per possession	0.280	0.271
On-target shots per possession	0.124	0.094
Inside-box shots per possession	0.149	0.183
Share of shots from inside the box	53.8%	69.0%
Expected goals, last 5	0.67	1.27
Possession, last 5	39.8%	40.6%
Corners, last 5	2.2	2.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.303	0.275
On-target allowed per possession	0.094	0.093
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.224	0.198
Opponents' inside-box share	72.0%	70.7%
Save rate	70.0%	63.4%
Saves, last 5	4.0	3.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.12	2.55
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	360	387
Fouls, last 5	10.0	11.4
Cards, last 5	1.6	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	8
Home side won	4
Drawn	2
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	15
Goals, away side	11

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 39.9% · Draw 26.4% · Away 33.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Inter v Fiorentina

serie-a · 11:30 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	19
Position last season	1	13
Points this season	19	4
Goal difference this season	+12	-9
Elo rating going in	1,875	1,593
Matches on record, all seasons	615	615
Recent form
Points, last 5	13	4
Goals scored, last 5	3.2	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	2.8	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.8
Clean sheets, last 10	3	2
Failed to score, last 10	0	3
Wins in a row	2	0
Unbeaten run	17	0
Losses in a row	0	2
Days since last match	8	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Scored away, last 5 there	2.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	21.6	16.4
Shots on target, last 5	7.8	6.0
Shots per possession	0.308	0.328
On-target shots per possession	0.107	0.110
Inside-box shots per possession	0.220	0.203
Share of shots from inside the box	72.0%	61.0%
Expected goals, last 5	2.80	1.90
Possession, last 5	60.8%	45.6%
Corners, last 5	6.4	5.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.303	0.267
On-target allowed per possession	0.106	0.108
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.193	0.183
Opponents' inside-box share	64.8%	68.1%
Save rate	68.4%	69.7%
Saves, last 5	3.0	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.05	1.35
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	89.5%	82.0%
Passes, last 5	595	400
Fouls, last 5	9.4	10.4
Cards, last 5	1.6	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	32
Home side won	17
Drawn	7
Away side won	8
Goals, home side	59
Goals, away side	46

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 71.5% · Draw 16.6% · Away 11.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Hibernian v Celtic

scottish-prem · 12:00 UK

Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	12	1
Position last season	5	1
Points this season	7	24
Goal difference this season	-5	+18
Elo rating going in	1,546	1,807
Matches on record, all seasons	492	604
Recent form
Points, last 5	1	12
Goals scored, last 5	0.6	2.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	0.6
Goals scored, last 10	0.9	2.6
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	0.6
Clean sheets, last 10	0	4
Failed to score, last 10	3	1
Wins in a row	0	2
Unbeaten run	0	2
Losses in a row	2	0
Days since last match	8	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	0.8	2.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.8	0.6
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.8	17.2
Shots on target, last 5	3.8	8.6
Shots per possession	0.310	0.333
On-target shots per possession	0.076	0.150
Inside-box shots per possession	0.215	0.247
Share of shots from inside the box	69.2%	74.4%
Expected goals, last 5	1.12	3.56
Possession, last 5	55.8%	55.8%
Corners, last 5	7.4	8.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.268	0.290
On-target allowed per possession	0.115	0.093
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.170	0.190
Opponents' inside-box share	62.9%	66.8%
Save rate	71.2%	77.0%
Saves, last 5	3.8	4.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.28	1.18
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	497	559
Fouls, last 5	10.4	12.2
Cards, last 5	1.2	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	44
Home side won	6
Drawn	13
Away side won	25
Goals, home side	36
Goals, away side	87

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 17.4% · Draw 20.3% · Away 62.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Athletic Club v Getafe

la-liga · 13:00 UK

Finished 4–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	13	14
Position last season	12	7
Points this season	9	9
Goal difference this season	-1	-6
Elo rating going in	1,611	1,579
Matches on record, all seasons	616	625
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	5
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	0.6
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	0.6
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	4	3
Failed to score, last 10	3	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	4	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	16.8	11.8
Shots on target, last 5	3.8	3.6
Shots per possession	0.296	0.284
On-target shots per possession	0.084	0.074
Inside-box shots per possession	0.193	0.136
Share of shots from inside the box	65.1%	47.4%
Expected goals, last 5	1.30	0.39
Possession, last 5	59.6%	31.0%
Corners, last 5	6.0	4.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.205	0.237
On-target allowed per possession	0.082	0.080
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.140	0.133
Opponents' inside-box share	57.3%	59.1%
Save rate	68.8%	73.4%
Saves, last 5	2.4	4.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.77	2.12
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	548	249
Fouls, last 5	11.6	15.4
Cards, last 5	2.0	4.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	30
Home side won	10
Drawn	14
Away side won	6
Goals, home side	38
Goals, away side	25

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 60.2% · Draw 23.5% · Away 16.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Konyaspor v Gençlerbirliği S.K.

super-lig · 13:00 UK

Finished 2–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	16	14
Position last season	9	14
Points this season	5	8
Goal difference this season	-5	-9
Elo rating going in	1,564	1,523
Matches on record, all seasons	468	354
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	1
Goals scored, last 5	0.2	0.6
Goals conceded, last 5	0.4	2.8
Goals scored, last 10	0.5	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.8
Clean sheets, last 10	3	2
Failed to score, last 10	6	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	1
Days since last match	8	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.8	13.2
Shots on target, last 5	2.8	4.2
Shots per possession	0.231	0.309
On-target shots per possession	0.065	0.106
Inside-box shots per possession	0.151	0.188
Share of shots from inside the box	64.6%	58.6%
Expected goals, last 5	0.70	0.81
Possession, last 5	50.2%	43.6%
Corners, last 5	3.0	6.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.281	0.303
On-target allowed per possession	0.106	0.119
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.167	0.210
Opponents' inside-box share	57.7%	69.6%
Save rate	75.6%	72.6%
Saves, last 5	2.6	4.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.94	1.98
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	77.5%	76.5%
Passes, last 5	401	334
Fouls, last 5	12.2	13.0
Cards, last 5	2.8	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	16
Home side won	6
Drawn	6
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	15
Goals, away side	16

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 50.1% · Draw 28.1% · Away 21.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Sabadell v Tenerife

laliga-2 · 13:00 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	10	12
Position last season	—	—
Points this season	15	13
Goal difference this season	+2	-2
Elo rating going in	1,462	1,402
Matches on record, all seasons	51	396
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	3
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	2.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	0.8	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	4	2
Failed to score, last 10	4	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	2
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	7	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	0.6	1.4
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	2.2
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.4	10.6
Shots on target, last 5	3.6	3.0
Shots per possession	0.314	0.249
On-target shots per possession	0.097	0.073
Inside-box shots per possession	0.209	0.139
Share of shots from inside the box	67.8%	55.9%
Expected goals, last 5	0.98	0.59
Possession, last 5	47.8%	41.2%
Corners, last 5	5.0	4.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.199	0.189
On-target allowed per possession	0.065	0.054
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.105	0.114
Opponents' inside-box share	53.0%	57.7%
Save rate	73.5%	60.9%
Saves, last 5	2.8	2.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.58	1.07
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	342	351
Fouls, last 5	18.4	13.4
Cards, last 5	2.2	2.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	1
Drawn	0
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	2
Goals, away side	3

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 49.7% · Draw 29.8% · Away 20.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

NEC Nijmegen v Groningen

eredivisie · 13:30 UK

Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	12	6
Position last season	3	9
Points this season	10	14
Goal difference this season	-1	+3
Elo rating going in	1,594	1,542
Matches on record, all seasons	390	529
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	8
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	2.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.7	2.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.7	2.1
Clean sheets, last 10	0	1
Failed to score, last 10	1	1
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	3	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.4	2.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	2.0	2.2
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.0	14.4
Shots on target, last 5	3.6	5.4
Shots per possession	0.293	0.273
On-target shots per possession	0.084	0.109
Inside-box shots per possession	0.191	0.184
Share of shots from inside the box	64.0%	65.9%
Expected goals, last 5	2.08	2.53
Possession, last 5	58.2%	49.0%
Corners, last 5	5.8	5.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.272	0.294
On-target allowed per possession	0.105	0.118
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.198	0.213
Opponents' inside-box share	76.9%	69.8%
Save rate	61.1%	62.4%
Saves, last 5	3.4	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.16	2.42
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	481	432
Fouls, last 5	11.0	9.2
Cards, last 5	1.4	0.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	20
Home side won	8
Drawn	5
Away side won	7
Goals, home side	38
Goals, away side	32

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 42.0% · Draw 25.0% · Away 33.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

PSV Eindhoven v Feyenoord

eredivisie · 13:30 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	2	1
Position last season	1	2
Points this season	19	23
Goal difference this season	+15	+21
Elo rating going in	1,833	1,762
Matches on record, all seasons	545	548
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	15
Goals scored, last 5	2.4	4.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	3.2	3.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.0
Clean sheets, last 10	1	5
Failed to score, last 10	0	0
Wins in a row	0	5
Unbeaten run	0	18
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	8	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	2.8	4.0
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	1.2
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	16.4	19.4
Shots on target, last 5	5.0	8.8
Shots per possession	0.313	0.399
On-target shots per possession	0.118	0.154
Inside-box shots per possession	0.220	0.277
Share of shots from inside the box	71.3%	69.1%
Expected goals, last 5	1.35	3.03
Possession, last 5	57.0%	49.6%
Corners, last 5	4.2	5.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.291	0.233
On-target allowed per possession	0.125	0.070
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.206	0.130
Opponents' inside-box share	74.2%	54.1%
Save rate	67.7%	68.6%
Saves, last 5	3.8	2.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.50	1.23
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	537	471
Fouls, last 5	11.8	10.4
Cards, last 5	2.2	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	32
Home side won	14
Drawn	6
Away side won	12
Goals, home side	64
Goals, away side	53

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 46.2% · Draw 23.0% · Away 30.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Atalanta v Frosinone

serie-a · 14:00 UK

Finished 4–4. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	10	4
Position last season	7	—
Points this season	9	13
Goal difference this season	-1	+4
Elo rating going in	1,683	1,510
Matches on record, all seasons	577	121
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	10
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	1.4
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	1	3
Failed to score, last 10	2	4
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	7	9
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.6	20.0
Shots on target, last 5	4.6	6.2
Shots per possession	0.282	0.422
On-target shots per possession	0.098	0.140
Inside-box shots per possession	0.183	0.255
Share of shots from inside the box	65.3%	60.2%
Expected goals, last 5	1.46	1.78
Possession, last 5	44.8%	44.2%
Corners, last 5	3.8	6.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.306	0.307
On-target allowed per possession	0.113	0.094
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.190	0.204
Opponents' inside-box share	62.4%	67.8%
Save rate	75.5%	69.0%
Saves, last 5	4.2	4.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.86	2.29
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	91.0%	75.5%
Passes, last 5	456	323
Fouls, last 5	10.6	13.6
Cards, last 5	1.4	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	4
Drawn	1
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	17
Goals, away side	2

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 52.3% · Draw 23.1% · Away 24.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Crystal Palace v Newcastle

premier-league · 14:00 UK

Finished 0–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	14	11
Position last season	15	12
Points this season	7	8
Goal difference this season	-8	-4
Elo rating going in	1,689	1,711
Matches on record, all seasons	596	623
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	4
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	2.2	2.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	1.4
Goals conceded, last 10	2.4	1.8
Clean sheets, last 10	1	1
Failed to score, last 10	4	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	2
Days since last match	7	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.2	12.4
Shots on target, last 5	4.2	3.8
Shots per possession	0.250	0.240
On-target shots per possession	0.087	0.076
Inside-box shots per possession	0.184	0.141
Share of shots from inside the box	75.2%	59.2%
Expected goals, last 5	1.59	1.46
Possession, last 5	43.2%	55.6%
Corners, last 5	4.0	4.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.294	0.366
On-target allowed per possession	0.097	0.123
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.207	0.219
Opponents' inside-box share	70.1%	61.1%
Save rate	60.6%	68.4%
Saves, last 5	3.8	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.50	1.57
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	392	474
Fouls, last 5	9.4	12.0
Cards, last 5	1.6	2.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	24
Home side won	6
Drawn	8
Away side won	10
Goals, home side	20
Goals, away side	31

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 32.8% · Draw 26.3% · Away 41.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Genoa v Venezia

serie-a · 14:00 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	19	20
Position last season	16	—
Points this season	4	3
Goal difference this season	-8	-10
Elo rating going in	1,547	1,463
Matches on record, all seasons	577	83
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	3
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	2.4
Goals scored, last 10	0.6	1.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.6	2.3
Clean sheets, last 10	1	1
Failed to score, last 10	5	4
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	8	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.2
Scored away, last 5 there	0.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.8	14.2
Shots on target, last 5	3.4	4.4
Shots per possession	0.224	0.258
On-target shots per possession	0.056	0.085
Inside-box shots per possession	0.152	0.174
Share of shots from inside the box	67.3%	68.5%
Expected goals, last 5	1.13	1.45
Possession, last 5	42.2%	53.2%
Corners, last 5	4.8	3.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.251	0.374
On-target allowed per possession	0.079	0.150
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.155	0.256
Opponents' inside-box share	59.7%	66.2%
Save rate	67.3%	63.6%
Saves, last 5	3.2	5.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.20	2.42
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	74.5%	87.5%
Passes, last 5	335	465
Fouls, last 5	10.0	10.2
Cards, last 5	3.4	3.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	1
Drawn	2
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	3
Goals, away side	3

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 44.3% · Draw 29.7% · Away 25.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Hull City v Brentford

premier-league · 14:00 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	9	6
Position last season	6	9
Points this season	9	10
Goal difference this season	+1	+5
Elo rating going in	1,583	1,741
Matches on record, all seasons	679	668
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	6
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	1.6
Goals conceded, last 10	0.7	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	6	2
Failed to score, last 10	3	1
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	1
Days since last match	8	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.2	11.4
Shots on target, last 5	3.6	3.2
Shots per possession	0.313	0.296
On-target shots per possession	0.105	0.081
Inside-box shots per possession	0.185	0.230
Share of shots from inside the box	57.3%	75.7%
Expected goals, last 5	0.78	1.10
Possession, last 5	32.2%	44.2%
Corners, last 5	4.6	2.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.207	0.320
On-target allowed per possession	0.061	0.106
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.135	0.193
Opponents' inside-box share	65.6%	59.5%
Save rate	74.9%	71.4%
Saves, last 5	3.6	4.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.60	1.69
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	281	357
Fouls, last 5	11.6	14.6
Cards, last 5	3.0	3.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	8
Home side won	4
Drawn	2
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	13
Goals, away side	14

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 19.4% · Draw 23.1% · Away 57.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Liverpool v Brighton

premier-league · 14:00 UK

Finished 2–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	5	2
Position last season	5	8
Points this season	12	16
Goal difference this season	+1	+18
Elo rating going in	1,822	1,779
Matches on record, all seasons	615	631
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	13
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	3.2
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	0.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	2.6
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	0.9
Clean sheets, last 10	3	6
Failed to score, last 10	2	2
Wins in a row	1	4
Unbeaten run	1	5
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	8	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Scored away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.0	17.8
Shots on target, last 5	4.8	6.0
Shots per possession	0.286	0.291
On-target shots per possession	0.095	0.097
Inside-box shots per possession	0.167	0.184
Share of shots from inside the box	58.3%	64.8%
Expected goals, last 5	1.28	1.58
Possession, last 5	52.0%	54.2%
Corners, last 5	5.0	5.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.265	0.274
On-target allowed per possession	0.087	0.089
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.177	0.204
Opponents' inside-box share	66.8%	69.8%
Save rate	65.0%	70.5%
Saves, last 5	2.4	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.12	0.73
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	460	455
Fouls, last 5	13.8	13.2
Cards, last 5	2.2	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	18
Home side won	10
Drawn	4
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	35
Goals, away side	22

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 45.4% · Draw 24.4% · Away 30.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Manchester United v Bournemouth

premier-league · 14:00 UK

Finished 0–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	13	15
Position last season	3	6
Points this season	7	6
Goal difference this season	+0	-4
Elo rating going in	1,783	1,753
Matches on record, all seasons	615	627
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	5
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	2	2
Failed to score, last 10	3	1
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	3	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	16.8	16.8
Shots on target, last 5	3.8	5.4
Shots per possession	0.355	0.276
On-target shots per possession	0.098	0.094
Inside-box shots per possession	0.208	0.163
Share of shots from inside the box	57.1%	59.9%
Expected goals, last 5	0.91	2.96
Possession, last 5	50.2%	54.0%
Corners, last 5	5.8	4.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.249	0.221
On-target allowed per possession	0.092	0.078
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.181	0.148
Opponents' inside-box share	71.1%	67.8%
Save rate	70.0%	58.1%
Saves, last 5	3.2	0.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.58	0.65
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	488	452
Fouls, last 5	10.2	13.8
Cards, last 5	2.0	3.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	18
Home side won	9
Drawn	5
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	35
Goals, away side	25

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 42.8% · Draw 26.0% · Away 31.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Monaco v Lille

ligue-1 · 14:00 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	4	1
Position last season	7	3
Points this season	14	14
Goal difference this season	+4	+5
Elo rating going in	1,678	1,691
Matches on record, all seasons	517	593
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	10
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	0.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	0.8
Clean sheets, last 10	2	5
Failed to score, last 10	2	1
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	2
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	7	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.2	13.2
Shots on target, last 5	3.8	5.2
Shots per possession	0.237	0.237
On-target shots per possession	0.089	0.102
Inside-box shots per possession	0.138	0.159
Share of shots from inside the box	59.4%	67.3%
Expected goals, last 5	0.94	1.76
Possession, last 5	51.2%	56.6%
Corners, last 5	3.4	4.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.268	0.252
On-target allowed per possession	0.082	0.076
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.162	0.166
Opponents' inside-box share	61.1%	69.4%
Save rate	67.8%	73.5%
Saves, last 5	3.6	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.64	1.10
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	551	536
Fouls, last 5	12.2	11.6
Cards, last 5	1.8	1.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	27
Home side won	10
Drawn	8
Away side won	9
Goals, home side	36
Goals, away side	28

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 48.6% · Draw 28.1% · Away 23.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Motherwell v Heart Of Midlothian

scottish-prem · 14:00 UK

Finished 0–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	10	3
Position last season	4	2
Points this season	8	16
Goal difference this season	-5	+5
Elo rating going in	1,551	1,666
Matches on record, all seasons	606	529
Recent form
Points, last 5	0	7
Goals scored, last 5	0.6	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	2.4	2.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	2.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.6	1.8
Clean sheets, last 10	3	2
Failed to score, last 10	4	0
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	5	1
Days since last match	8	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	1.4
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	2.6
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.6	18.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.2	5.0
Shots per possession	0.250	0.330
On-target shots per possession	0.087	0.103
Inside-box shots per possession	0.171	0.226
Share of shots from inside the box	68.5%	68.8%
Expected goals, last 5	1.77	2.39
Possession, last 5	56.2%	56.2%
Corners, last 5	4.8	6.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.354	0.213
On-target allowed per possession	0.121	0.063
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.247	0.153
Opponents' inside-box share	65.6%	71.4%
Save rate	64.9%	55.2%
Saves, last 5	4.8	1.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.22	2.49
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	537	518
Fouls, last 5	7.8	13.0
Cards, last 5	0.8	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	47
Home side won	18
Drawn	9
Away side won	20
Goals, home side	52
Goals, away side	66

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 29.3% · Draw 25.4% · Away 45.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

1899 Hoffenheim v Bayer Leverkusen

bundesliga · 14:30 UK

Finished 3–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	14	4
Position last season	5	6
Points this season	6	13
Goal difference this season	-3	+7
Elo rating going in	1,578	1,722
Matches on record, all seasons	550	550
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	13
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	2.8
Goals conceded, last 5	2.2	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.7	2.4
Goals conceded, last 10	2.2	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	1	2
Failed to score, last 10	1	0
Wins in a row	1	3
Unbeaten run	1	5
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	18.4	19.4
Shots on target, last 5	5.6	6.6
Shots per possession	0.304	0.313
On-target shots per possession	0.101	0.110
Inside-box shots per possession	0.181	0.229
Share of shots from inside the box	59.1%	71.3%
Expected goals, last 5	1.48	1.69
Possession, last 5	57.0%	56.0%
Corners, last 5	6.6	8.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.313	0.339
On-target allowed per possession	0.105	0.119
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.213	0.226
Opponents' inside-box share	68.5%	64.3%
Save rate	57.3%	64.3%
Saves, last 5	2.2	1.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.91	2.00
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	502	531
Fouls, last 5	13.2	11.8
Cards, last 5	2.0	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	32
Home side won	9
Drawn	6
Away side won	17
Goals, home side	44
Goals, away side	59

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 34.2% · Draw 23.8% · Away 42.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Albacete v Eldense

laliga-2 · 15:15 UK

Finished 2–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	22	11
Position last season	11	—
Points this season	1	14
Goal difference this season	-16	+0
Elo rating going in	1,401	1,421
Matches on record, all seasons	350	94
Recent form
Points, last 5	0	9
Goals scored, last 5	0.6	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	2.8	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	0.6	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	2.2	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	0	2
Failed to score, last 10	4	4
Wins in a row	0	3
Unbeaten run	0	3
Losses in a row	5	0
Days since last match	8	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	0.4	0.8
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.4	1.4
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.4	15.8
Shots on target, last 5	3.6	5.6
Shots per possession	0.261	0.253
On-target shots per possession	0.082	0.085
Inside-box shots per possession	0.172	0.149
Share of shots from inside the box	63.1%	58.0%
Expected goals, last 5	0.59	2.82
Possession, last 5	46.6%	51.4%
Corners, last 5	5.0	5.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.264	0.205
On-target allowed per possession	0.101	0.080
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.182	0.134
Opponents' inside-box share	68.2%	68.0%
Save rate	61.5%	71.6%
Saves, last 5	2.6	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.89	1.46
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	390	458
Fouls, last 5	13.6	12.8
Cards, last 5	2.6	2.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	1
Drawn	1
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	2
Goals, away side	4

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 39.6% · Draw 28.4% · Away 32.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Cadiz v AD Ceuta FC

laliga-2 · 15:15 UK

Finished 3–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	20	21
Position last season	18	9
Points this season	7	5
Goal difference this season	-2	-13
Elo rating going in	1,355	1,422
Matches on record, all seasons	416	52
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	5
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	0.9
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	2.2
Clean sheets, last 10	2	0
Failed to score, last 10	4	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	2	2
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.2	19.0
Shots on target, last 5	3.8	5.2
Shots per possession	0.196	0.308
On-target shots per possession	0.054	0.080
Inside-box shots per possession	0.131	0.210
Share of shots from inside the box	67.7%	66.0%
Expected goals, last 5	0.56	1.96
Possession, last 5	51.2%	51.4%
Corners, last 5	4.6	7.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.255	0.243
On-target allowed per possession	0.076	0.093
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.163	0.151
Opponents' inside-box share	63.1%	60.6%
Save rate	69.8%	59.2%
Saves, last 5	1.6	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.80	1.87
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	454	386
Fouls, last 5	10.8	12.4
Cards, last 5	2.6	2.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	0
Drawn	1
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	1
Goals, away side	2

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 49.7% · Draw 27.7% · Away 22.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Celta Vigo v Real Betis

la-liga · 15:15 UK

Finished 0–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	7	3
Position last season	6	5
Points this season	11	19
Goal difference this season	+3	+2
Elo rating going in	1,625	1,719
Matches on record, all seasons	541	541
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	10
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	2.2
Goals conceded, last 5	0.6	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	1.8
Goals conceded, last 10	0.7	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	5	4
Failed to score, last 10	4	0
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	6	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	7	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.8	2.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.2	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.8	17.0
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	7.2
Shots per possession	0.196	0.323
On-target shots per possession	0.066	0.133
Inside-box shots per possession	0.100	0.186
Share of shots from inside the box	49.0%	54.0%
Expected goals, last 5	0.76	2.12
Possession, last 5	47.8%	50.6%
Corners, last 5	2.2	4.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.266	0.338
On-target allowed per possession	0.084	0.133
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.153	0.222
Opponents' inside-box share	56.0%	63.5%
Save rate	76.5%	70.7%
Saves, last 5	3.4	4.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.85	2.56
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	85.0%	—
Passes, last 5	459	490
Fouls, last 5	13.4	10.2
Cards, last 5	1.8	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	26
Home side won	8
Drawn	9
Away side won	9
Goals, home side	40
Goals, away side	39

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 30.0% · Draw 27.0% · Away 43.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Estoril v Moreirense

primeira-liga · 15:30 UK

Finished 1–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	18	12
Position last season	10	7
Points this season	2	8
Goal difference this season	-8	-7
Elo rating going in	1,513	1,557
Matches on record, all seasons	374	414
Recent form
Points, last 5	1	4
Goals scored, last 5	0.6	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	0.6	0.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.6	1.7
Clean sheets, last 10	1	2
Failed to score, last 10	4	5
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	3	1
Days since last match	15	16
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.6	9.0
Shots on target, last 5	5.2	2.6
Shots per possession	0.270	0.217
On-target shots per possession	0.101	0.071
Inside-box shots per possession	0.166	0.123
Share of shots from inside the box	61.1%	55.3%
Expected goals, last 5	0.89	1.14
Possession, last 5	45.2%	33.2%
Corners, last 5	4.4	2.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.256	0.248
On-target allowed per possession	0.080	0.072
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.158	0.162
Opponents' inside-box share	64.3%	65.5%
Save rate	56.6%	58.9%
Saves, last 5	3.2	3.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.42	1.51
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	74.0%	—
Passes, last 5	409	300
Fouls, last 5	10.4	13.6
Cards, last 5	2.4	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	18
Home side won	6
Drawn	7
Away side won	5
Goals, home side	25
Goals, away side	22

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 49.3% · Draw 26.4% · Away 24.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Sparta Rotterdam v Ajax

eredivisie · 15:45 UK

Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	12	4
Position last season	10	5
Points this season	9	18
Goal difference this season	-6	+15
Elo rating going in	1,522	1,705
Matches on record, all seasons	313	546
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	11
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	3.6
Goals conceded, last 5	3.0	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.8	2.7
Goals conceded, last 10	2.5	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	0	3
Failed to score, last 10	2	1
Wins in a row	1	1
Unbeaten run	2	5
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	8	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	2.4	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	3.2
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	0.6
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	16.4	25.2
Shots on target, last 5	6.0	9.4
Shots per possession	0.338	0.364
On-target shots per possession	0.122	0.133
Inside-box shots per possession	0.241	0.256
Share of shots from inside the box	70.0%	69.1%
Expected goals, last 5	2.73	2.45
Possession, last 5	42.6%	64.2%
Corners, last 5	6.4	8.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.319	0.262
On-target allowed per possession	0.100	0.104
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.193	0.182
Opponents' inside-box share	59.6%	69.3%
Save rate	61.7%	69.5%
Saves, last 5	4.4	2.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.29	1.70
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	361	626
Fouls, last 5	9.2	9.8
Cards, last 5	2.0	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	18
Home side won	0
Drawn	3
Away side won	15
Goals, home side	15
Goals, away side	47

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 15.7% · Draw 18.2% · Away 66.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Göztepe v Çorum FK

super-lig · 16:00 UK

Finished 2–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	12	6
Position last season	6	—
Points this season	9	13
Goal difference this season	+1	+5
Elo rating going in	1,628	1,643
Matches on record, all seasons	258	8
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	12
Goals scored, last 5	2.4	2.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.9	—
Goals conceded, last 10	2.0	—
Clean sheets, last 10	1	2
Failed to score, last 10	2	1
Wins in a row	2	2
Unbeaten run	4	2
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	9
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.5
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	2.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	17.0	13.2
Shots on target, last 5	5.6	6.6
Shots per possession	0.436	0.243
On-target shots per possession	0.142	0.104
Inside-box shots per possession	0.327	0.139
Share of shots from inside the box	74.4%	56.5%
Expected goals, last 5	2.36	1.42
Possession, last 5	41.6%	52.6%
Corners, last 5	4.6	4.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.256	0.312
On-target allowed per possession	0.081	0.102
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.175	0.195
Opponents' inside-box share	66.1%	63.1%
Save rate	61.9%	67.8%
Saves, last 5	2.6	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.43	1.07
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	73.6%	85.2%
Passes, last 5	295	486
Fouls, last 5	17.0	16.4
Cards, last 5	3.0	2.8

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 43.6% · Draw 26.6% · Away 29.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Angers v Lorient

ligue-1 · 16:15 UK

Finished 0–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	14	7
Position last season	13	10
Points this season	7	11
Goal difference this season	-6	+1
Elo rating going in	1,471	1,563
Matches on record, all seasons	369	455
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	10
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	2.4	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	2.0	1.0
Clean sheets, last 10	2	5
Failed to score, last 10	2	2
Wins in a row	0	2
Unbeaten run	0	2
Losses in a row	2	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.2	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	2.0	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.0	8.8
Shots on target, last 5	2.6	3.2
Shots per possession	0.271	0.211
On-target shots per possession	0.070	0.080
Inside-box shots per possession	0.186	0.130
Share of shots from inside the box	69.0%	62.8%
Expected goals, last 5	1.75	1.19
Possession, last 5	49.4%	43.0%
Corners, last 5	5.4	2.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.328	0.246
On-target allowed per possession	0.126	0.073
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.215	0.166
Opponents' inside-box share	65.2%	66.9%
Save rate	70.9%	74.0%
Saves, last 5	4.0	4.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	3.33	0.81
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	432	460
Fouls, last 5	11.8	9.6
Cards, last 5	1.6	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	12
Home side won	4
Drawn	4
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	15
Goals, away side	13

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 32.5% · Draw 29.0% · Away 38.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Auxerre v Le Mans

ligue-1 · 16:15 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	12	15
Position last season	15	—
Points this season	9	6
Goal difference this season	-6	-5
Elo rating going in	1,529	1,572
Matches on record, all seasons	191	7
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	5
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.8	—
Goals conceded, last 10	1.9	—
Clean sheets, last 10	2	0
Failed to score, last 10	0	1
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	1	0
Losses in a row	0	2
Days since last match	7	9
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.5
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.0	10.8
Shots on target, last 5	5.0	3.8
Shots per possession	0.269	0.250
On-target shots per possession	0.123	0.095
Inside-box shots per possession	0.178	0.154
Share of shots from inside the box	64.1%	60.1%
Expected goals, last 5	2.26	1.23
Possession, last 5	42.2%	45.2%
Corners, last 5	5.0	2.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.251	0.264
On-target allowed per possession	0.105	0.092
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.182	0.195
Opponents' inside-box share	72.3%	72.8%
Save rate	65.4%	61.9%
Saves, last 5	4.4	2.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.04	3.08
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	358	433
Fouls, last 5	13.8	15.0
Cards, last 5	1.2	2.8

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 46.7% · Draw 26.0% · Away 27.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Marseille v Le Havre

ligue-1 · 16:15 UK

Finished 4–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	8	18
Position last season	5	14
Points this season	9	2
Goal difference this season	+4	-6
Elo rating going in	1,641	1,478
Matches on record, all seasons	593	109
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	1
Goals scored, last 5	2.0	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.8	0.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	3	2
Failed to score, last 10	3	4
Wins in a row	2	0
Unbeaten run	2	0
Losses in a row	0	3
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.0	16.6
Shots on target, last 5	4.8	5.0
Shots per possession	0.268	0.263
On-target shots per possession	0.106	0.088
Inside-box shots per possession	0.178	0.177
Share of shots from inside the box	67.8%	69.9%
Expected goals, last 5	2.06	1.42
Possession, last 5	54.2%	50.8%
Corners, last 5	4.2	5.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.360	0.249
On-target allowed per possession	0.113	0.093
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.257	0.161
Opponents' inside-box share	70.7%	62.8%
Save rate	68.6%	73.4%
Saves, last 5	4.4	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.60	2.01
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	556	421
Fouls, last 5	11.8	14.6
Cards, last 5	1.8	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	6
Drawn	0
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	20
Goals, away side	5

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 63.1% · Draw 19.5% · Away 17.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Rennes v Strasbourg

ligue-1 · 16:15 UK

Finished 3–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	5	12
Position last season	6	8
Points this season	13	7
Goal difference this season	+1	-3
Elo rating going in	1,645	1,612
Matches on record, all seasons	593	326
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	4
Goals scored, last 5	2.0	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	2.0	2.0
Goals conceded, last 10	2.2	2.1
Clean sheets, last 10	1	0
Failed to score, last 10	1	1
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	3
Days since last match	7	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	3.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	16.6	13.0
Shots on target, last 5	6.6	5.2
Shots per possession	0.312	0.282
On-target shots per possession	0.116	0.119
Inside-box shots per possession	0.207	0.192
Share of shots from inside the box	65.4%	65.4%
Expected goals, last 5	2.99	1.06
Possession, last 5	53.0%	45.8%
Corners, last 5	6.6	1.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.342	0.333
On-target allowed per possession	0.131	0.120
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.211	0.227
Opponents' inside-box share	60.2%	68.7%
Save rate	64.2%	69.1%
Saves, last 5	4.0	3.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.71	2.04
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	505	456
Fouls, last 5	14.4	11.4
Cards, last 5	2.4	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	17
Home side won	10
Drawn	2
Away side won	5
Goals, home side	28
Goals, away side	18

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 53.0% · Draw 22.1% · Away 24.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Toulouse v Estac Troyes

ligue-1 · 16:15 UK

Finished 0–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	7	17
Position last season	9	—
Points this season	9	4
Goal difference this season	+1	-11
Elo rating going in	1,579	1,386
Matches on record, all seasons	519	197
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	0
Goals scored, last 5	2.0	0.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	3.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	0.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	2.0
Clean sheets, last 10	2	1
Failed to score, last 10	3	4
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	4	0
Losses in a row	0	5
Days since last match	9	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.4	16.2
Shots on target, last 5	5.6	3.6
Shots per possession	0.264	0.304
On-target shots per possession	0.094	0.078
Inside-box shots per possession	0.175	0.205
Share of shots from inside the box	65.7%	66.7%
Expected goals, last 5	1.66	1.21
Possession, last 5	50.8%	39.8%
Corners, last 5	4.2	7.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.241	0.228
On-target allowed per possession	0.073	0.082
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.151	0.156
Opponents' inside-box share	56.7%	69.9%
Save rate	69.6%	61.9%
Saves, last 5	2.8	2.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.11	1.41
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	528	349
Fouls, last 5	15.2	13.6
Cards, last 5	1.4	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	8
Home side won	6
Drawn	2
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	16
Goals, away side	3

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 59.9% · Draw 22.0% · Away 18.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

SC Freiburg v Bayern München

bundesliga · 16:30 UK

Finished 1–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	3	1
Position last season	7	1
Points this season	13	14
Goal difference this season	+9	+17
Elo rating going in	1,612	1,861
Matches on record, all seasons	516	550
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	11
Goals scored, last 5	2.2	3.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	2.2	3.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	2	3
Failed to score, last 10	1	1
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	21
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	7	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	5.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.6	25.0
Shots on target, last 5	5.4	10.6
Shots per possession	0.256	0.313
On-target shots per possession	0.093	0.134
Inside-box shots per possession	0.166	0.182
Share of shots from inside the box	64.7%	59.8%
Expected goals, last 5	1.15	4.29
Possession, last 5	52.6%	71.0%
Corners, last 5	5.0	9.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.232	0.351
On-target allowed per possession	0.071	0.122
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.150	0.256
Opponents' inside-box share	68.3%	71.6%
Save rate	61.2%	67.9%
Saves, last 5	1.4	1.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.02	1.68
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	460	738
Fouls, last 5	8.8	10.6
Cards, last 5	1.8	0.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	30
Home side won	1
Drawn	6
Away side won	23
Goals, home side	24
Goals, away side	81

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 15.0% · Draw 17.5% · Away 67.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Sunderland v Leeds

premier-league · 16:30 UK

Finished 0–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	19	7
Position last season	7	14
Points this season	4	10
Goal difference this season	-8	+3
Elo rating going in	1,658	1,734
Matches on record, all seasons	682	670
Recent form
Points, last 5	1	6
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	2.4	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.6	1.0
Clean sheets, last 10	2	3
Failed to score, last 10	4	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	4	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.6	12.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	4.6
Shots per possession	0.259	0.252
On-target shots per possession	0.085	0.079
Inside-box shots per possession	0.173	0.165
Share of shots from inside the box	64.0%	65.0%
Expected goals, last 5	0.41	1.11
Possession, last 5	47.0%	47.6%
Corners, last 5	4.4	4.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.251	0.283
On-target allowed per possession	0.067	0.096
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.160	0.183
Opponents' inside-box share	62.5%	62.6%
Save rate	58.7%	75.3%
Saves, last 5	2.2	3.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.77	1.80
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	373	401
Fouls, last 5	11.2	14.0
Cards, last 5	2.2	2.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	8
Home side won	2
Drawn	4
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	7
Goals, away side	8

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 31.9% · Draw 29.8% · Away 38.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Lecce v Juventus

serie-a · 17:00 UK

Finished 0–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	11	8
Position last season	17	6
Points this season	9	11
Goal difference this season	-3	+1
Elo rating going in	1,535	1,731
Matches on record, all seasons	273	615
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	5
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	3	4
Failed to score, last 10	4	2
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	1	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.8	15.4
Shots on target, last 5	5.0	6.0
Shots per possession	0.294	0.300
On-target shots per possession	0.134	0.102
Inside-box shots per possession	0.211	0.181
Share of shots from inside the box	69.0%	60.9%
Expected goals, last 5	1.29	1.26
Possession, last 5	43.6%	57.2%
Corners, last 5	5.2	6.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.243	0.201
On-target allowed per possession	0.101	0.076
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.171	0.118
Opponents' inside-box share	72.2%	57.4%
Save rate	70.5%	62.1%
Saves, last 5	4.4	1.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.70	0.66
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	79.0%	88.0%
Passes, last 5	363	564
Fouls, last 5	14.0	9.6
Cards, last 5	1.8	1.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	14
Home side won	1
Drawn	4
Away side won	9
Goals, home side	8
Goals, away side	23

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 14.3% · Draw 22.6% · Away 63.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Castellón v Sporting Gijon

laliga-2 · 17:30 UK

Finished 4–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	2	4
Position last season	6	9
Points this season	23	19
Goal difference this season	+14	+2
Elo rating going in	1,544	1,480
Matches on record, all seasons	138	544
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	12
Goals scored, last 5	2.2	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	0.4	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.8	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	0.4	0.9
Clean sheets, last 10	6	4
Failed to score, last 10	2	4
Wins in a row	1	3
Unbeaten run	1	3
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	8	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.2	11.0
Shots on target, last 5	4.6	4.0
Shots per possession	0.235	0.219
On-target shots per possession	0.082	0.079
Inside-box shots per possession	0.148	0.138
Share of shots from inside the box	63.2%	60.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.54	0.76
Possession, last 5	62.4%	46.8%
Corners, last 5	3.8	4.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.275	0.219
On-target allowed per possession	0.087	0.066
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.186	0.123
Opponents' inside-box share	64.1%	56.0%
Save rate	76.8%	69.2%
Saves, last 5	3.4	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.47	0.51
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	568	417
Fouls, last 5	11.4	12.4
Cards, last 5	1.2	4.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	3
Drawn	0
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	11
Goals, away side	11

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 62.9% · Draw 21.6% · Away 15.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Real Sociedad v Levante

la-liga · 17:30 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	5	11
Position last season	10	18
Points this season	16	10
Goal difference this season	+0	-2
Elo rating going in	1,625	1,588
Matches on record, all seasons	617	637
Recent form
Points, last 5	12	5
Goals scored, last 5	2.8	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	2.2	2.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.8	1.6
Goals conceded, last 10	1.8	1.9
Clean sheets, last 10	1	2
Failed to score, last 10	3	3
Wins in a row	3	1
Unbeaten run	3	3
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	3.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Scored away, last 5 there	2.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.0	12.4
Shots on target, last 5	5.6	5.4
Shots per possession	0.280	0.303
On-target shots per possession	0.109	0.125
Inside-box shots per possession	0.165	0.205
Share of shots from inside the box	57.1%	65.4%
Expected goals, last 5	2.00	1.63
Possession, last 5	47.4%	42.2%
Corners, last 5	6.6	3.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.324	0.286
On-target allowed per possession	0.125	0.102
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.202	0.186
Opponents' inside-box share	61.1%	65.2%
Save rate	73.4%	65.8%
Saves, last 5	4.8	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.64	1.88
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	439	374
Fouls, last 5	11.2	10.6
Cards, last 5	2.0	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	24
Home side won	7
Drawn	9
Away side won	8
Goals, home side	32
Goals, away side	27

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 60.2% · Draw 21.1% · Away 18.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Nacional v SC Braga

primeira-liga · 18:00 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	16	9
Position last season	14	4
Points this season	4	11
Goal difference this season	-9	-1
Elo rating going in	1,455	1,710
Matches on record, all seasons	366	536
Recent form
Points, last 5	0	4
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	3.0	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	2.0	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	2	3
Failed to score, last 10	4	1
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	6	2
Days since last match	14	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.0	14.0
Shots on target, last 5	3.6	4.4
Shots per possession	0.203	0.213
On-target shots per possession	0.062	0.071
Inside-box shots per possession	0.116	0.131
Share of shots from inside the box	53.3%	60.2%
Expected goals, last 5	1.05	1.46
Possession, last 5	48.0%	56.4%
Corners, last 5	4.2	5.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.282	0.241
On-target allowed per possession	0.109	0.084
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.161	0.143
Opponents' inside-box share	56.7%	57.0%
Save rate	63.6%	65.4%
Saves, last 5	3.4	1.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.92	1.25
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	82.0%	—
Passes, last 5	401	562
Fouls, last 5	10.8	12.0
Cards, last 5	1.0	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	22
Home side won	4
Drawn	3
Away side won	15
Goals, home side	23
Goals, away side	43

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 16.2% · Draw 22.8% · Away 61.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Rio Ave v Famalicao

primeira-liga · 18:00 UK

Finished 0–4. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	14	13
Position last season	13	5
Points this season	7	7
Goal difference this season	-9	-1
Elo rating going in	1,531	1,626
Matches on record, all seasons	504	246
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	6
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	2.8	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.0	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	2.2	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	1	4
Failed to score, last 10	5	3
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	1	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	14	13
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.4	0.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	3.0	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	7.8	10.2
Shots on target, last 5	3.8	3.2
Shots per possession	0.181	0.191
On-target shots per possession	0.069	0.058
Inside-box shots per possession	0.086	0.094
Share of shots from inside the box	48.1%	48.2%
Expected goals, last 5	1.10	0.32
Possession, last 5	45.4%	51.4%
Corners, last 5	3.8	5.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.312	0.252
On-target allowed per possession	0.104	0.068
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.211	0.174
Opponents' inside-box share	68.0%	68.1%
Save rate	62.7%	64.7%
Saves, last 5	3.0	2.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.58	1.60
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	85.0%	85.0%
Passes, last 5	374	436
Fouls, last 5	9.4	10.8
Cards, last 5	1.8	2.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	12
Home side won	0
Drawn	8
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	8
Goals, away side	12

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 25.2% · Draw 29.0% · Away 45.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

AZ Alkmaar v Twente

eredivisie · 19:00 UK

Finished 0–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	2	5
Position last season	7	4
Points this season	20	17
Goal difference this season	+10	+7
Elo rating going in	1,662	1,672
Matches on record, all seasons	558	523
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	10
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	2.3	1.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	3	2
Failed to score, last 10	1	1
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	1	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	2.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.6	20.6
Shots on target, last 5	5.4	7.2
Shots per possession	0.292	0.363
On-target shots per possession	0.118	0.121
Inside-box shots per possession	0.198	0.243
Share of shots from inside the box	71.6%	66.4%
Expected goals, last 5	1.30	1.27
Possession, last 5	61.0%	56.8%
Corners, last 5	6.2	7.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.238	0.267
On-target allowed per possession	0.092	0.099
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.152	0.159
Opponents' inside-box share	64.8%	62.6%
Save rate	65.0%	65.6%
Saves, last 5	2.2	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.88	1.07
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	565	529
Fouls, last 5	12.8	12.4
Cards, last 5	1.6	0.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	31
Home side won	15
Drawn	5
Away side won	11
Goals, home side	52
Goals, away side	44

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 44.1% · Draw 24.2% · Away 31.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Udinese v AC Milan

serie-a · 19:45 UK

Finished 0–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	17	4
Position last season	10	5
Points this season	4	15
Goal difference this season	-7	+7
Elo rating going in	1,552	1,739
Matches on record, all seasons	615	615
Recent form
Points, last 5	0	9
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	2.6	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	1.9
Goals conceded, last 10	1.8	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	1	2
Failed to score, last 10	4	0
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	7
Losses in a row	5	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	0.4	2.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.6	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.2	10.2
Shots on target, last 5	3.8	4.8
Shots per possession	0.262	0.232
On-target shots per possession	0.088	0.092
Inside-box shots per possession	0.171	0.169
Share of shots from inside the box	65.1%	70.7%
Expected goals, last 5	1.02	1.69
Possession, last 5	53.6%	60.2%
Corners, last 5	4.6	3.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.306	0.251
On-target allowed per possession	0.125	0.098
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.199	0.162
Opponents' inside-box share	61.4%	65.8%
Save rate	67.5%	70.4%
Saves, last 5	4.4	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.43	1.30
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	84.7%	91.0%
Passes, last 5	493	607
Fouls, last 5	10.2	9.6
Cards, last 5	2.0	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	32
Home side won	9
Drawn	9
Away side won	14
Goals, home side	39
Goals, away side	48

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 19.6% · Draw 25.2% · Away 55.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Barcelona v Real Madrid

la-liga · 20:00 UK

Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	3
Position last season	1	2
Points this season	27	21
Goal difference this season	+30	+14
Elo rating going in	1,909	1,844
Matches on record, all seasons	617	617
Recent form
Points, last 5	15	12
Goals scored, last 5	4.4	2.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	4.0	2.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	4	2
Failed to score, last 10	0	1
Wins in a row	9	2
Unbeaten run	9	2
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	8	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	3.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Scored away, last 5 there	4.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	21.4	15.6
Shots on target, last 5	8.0	6.0
Shots per possession	0.285	0.290
On-target shots per possession	0.114	0.125
Inside-box shots per possession	0.199	0.205
Share of shots from inside the box	71.1%	70.4%
Expected goals, last 5	2.55	1.92
Possession, last 5	73.2%	50.0%
Corners, last 5	8.0	5.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.290	0.271
On-target allowed per possession	0.123	0.091
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.184	0.157
Opponents' inside-box share	64.3%	57.7%
Save rate	62.4%	68.3%
Saves, last 5	2.0	4.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.71	0.72
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	736	488
Fouls, last 5	10.4	8.2
Cards, last 5	1.6	2.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	32
Home side won	15
Drawn	5
Away side won	12
Goals, home side	66
Goals, away side	47

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 58.3% · Draw 16.2% · Away 25.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Sporting CP v Academico Viseu

primeira-liga · 20:30 UK

Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	2	5
Position last season	2	—
Points this season	18	14
Goal difference this season	+11	+1
Elo rating going in	1,900	1,637
Matches on record, all seasons	536	8
Recent form
Points, last 5	11	12
Goals scored, last 5	2.4	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	2.7	—
Goals conceded, last 10	1.0	—
Clean sheets, last 10	3	2
Failed to score, last 10	0	2
Wins in a row	1	4
Unbeaten run	13	4
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	16	15
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.5
Scored away, last 5 there	2.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.8	9.8
Shots on target, last 5	5.2	3.2
Shots per possession	0.205	0.212
On-target shots per possession	0.081	0.077
Inside-box shots per possession	0.141	0.138
Share of shots from inside the box	65.4%	63.8%
Expected goals, last 5	1.42	0.81
Possession, last 5	60.2%	46.8%
Corners, last 5	5.0	2.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.220	0.313
On-target allowed per possession	0.061	0.107
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.126	0.218
Opponents' inside-box share	50.2%	69.7%
Save rate	70.4%	73.8%
Saves, last 5	2.2	4.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.00	1.44
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	90.0%	86.0%
Passes, last 5	569	404
Fouls, last 5	10.8	15.0
Cards, last 5	2.6	2.4

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 77.1% · Draw 15.7% · Away 7.2% — bet365, pre_match.