Latest · All reports · The data behind it · This day's report

The data behind the ratings

Monday 26 October 2026 · everything below is a stored value, as it was that morning

Beşiktaş v Başakşehir

super-lig · 16:00 UK

Finished 2–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	5	10
Position last season	4	5
Points this season	15	11
Goal difference this season	+6	+0
Elo rating going in	1,715	1,685
Matches on record, all seasons	542	508
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.9	1.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	2	4
Failed to score, last 10	2	2
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	3
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	7	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	18.2	11.6
Shots on target, last 5	6.6	4.2
Shots per possession	0.305	0.258
On-target shots per possession	0.108	0.085
Inside-box shots per possession	0.187	0.166
Share of shots from inside the box	60.6%	60.8%
Expected goals, last 5	1.96	1.55
Possession, last 5	63.4%	50.8%
Corners, last 5	7.4	4.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.277	0.245
On-target allowed per possession	0.114	0.080
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.154	0.138
Opponents' inside-box share	49.4%	53.9%
Save rate	66.2%	70.6%
Saves, last 5	3.4	2.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.44	1.42
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	88.0%	83.8%
Passes, last 5	531	436
Fouls, last 5	13.4	14.4
Cards, last 5	3.2	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	28
Home side won	9
Drawn	12
Away side won	7
Goals, home side	37
Goals, away side	35

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 69.5% · Draw 17.4% · Away 13.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Rizespor v Trabzonspor

super-lig · 16:00 UK

Finished 3–4. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	10	4
Position last season	8	3
Points this season	10	16
Goal difference this season	-3	+13
Elo rating going in	1,595	1,748
Matches on record, all seasons	398	542
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	12
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	2.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	0.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.0	2.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.7	0.9
Clean sheets, last 10	2	4
Failed to score, last 10	4	2
Wins in a row	0	3
Unbeaten run	0	3
Losses in a row	2	0
Days since last match	10	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.0	14.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.4	7.2
Shots per possession	0.299	0.263
On-target shots per possession	0.089	0.133
Inside-box shots per possession	0.171	0.185
Share of shots from inside the box	57.8%	70.9%
Expected goals, last 5	1.23	1.86
Possession, last 5	54.8%	49.6%
Corners, last 5	4.6	4.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.320	0.319
On-target allowed per possession	0.113	0.116
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.203	0.188
Opponents' inside-box share	63.6%	59.0%
Save rate	68.6%	76.3%
Saves, last 5	3.6	4.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.56	1.11
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	83.2%	81.8%
Passes, last 5	435	406
Fouls, last 5	8.6	10.6
Cards, last 5	1.6	2.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	22
Home side won	5
Drawn	3
Away side won	14
Goals, home side	27
Goals, away side	44

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 27.1% · Draw 24.1% · Away 48.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Galatasaray v Fenerbahçe

super-lig · 18:30 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	3
Position last season	1	2
Points this season	19	16
Goal difference this season	+6	+16
Elo rating going in	1,889	1,842
Matches on record, all seasons	542	542
Recent form
Points, last 5	12	10
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	3.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	0.4
Goals scored, last 10	2.1	2.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	0.9
Clean sheets, last 10	3	6
Failed to score, last 10	2	1
Wins in a row	2	3
Unbeaten run	2	4
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	9	9
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	3.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	19.6	17.5
Shots on target, last 5	6.6	6.8
Shots per possession	0.341	0.342
On-target shots per possession	0.119	0.141
Inside-box shots per possession	0.232	0.241
Share of shots from inside the box	67.8%	68.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.87	3.26
Possession, last 5	59.8%	52.2%
Corners, last 5	8.8	4.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.278	0.287
On-target allowed per possession	0.091	0.099
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.183	0.135
Opponents' inside-box share	64.7%	47.9%
Save rate	63.5%	73.1%
Saves, last 5	2.2	4.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.17	1.10
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	85.0%	87.0%
Passes, last 5	461	468
Fouls, last 5	13.6	13.2
Cards, last 5	2.2	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	32
Home side won	10
Drawn	13
Away side won	9
Goals, home side	34
Goals, away side	27

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 45.2% · Draw 24.4% · Away 30.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Santa Clara v Benfica

primeira-liga · 18:45 UK

Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	3	2
Position last season	12	3
Points this season	18	19
Goal difference this season	+8	+17
Elo rating going in	1,615	1,892
Matches on record, all seasons	246	536
Recent form
Points, last 5	11	12
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	2.6
Goals conceded, last 5	0.4	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	2.9
Goals conceded, last 10	0.5	1.0
Clean sheets, last 10	6	4
Failed to score, last 10	2	0
Wins in a row	1	1
Unbeaten run	8	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	16	15
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.4	16.8
Shots on target, last 5	3.4	5.6
Shots per possession	0.281	0.329
On-target shots per possession	0.063	0.117
Inside-box shots per possession	0.171	0.245
Share of shots from inside the box	59.7%	74.4%
Expected goals, last 5	1.04	2.84
Possession, last 5	50.8%	63.0%
Corners, last 5	5.2	8.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.164	0.207
On-target allowed per possession	0.050	0.061
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.096	0.145
Opponents' inside-box share	58.5%	71.2%
Save rate	77.6%	63.7%
Saves, last 5	1.8	1.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.46	0.49
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	74.0%	—
Passes, last 5	416	550
Fouls, last 5	11.8	11.2
Cards, last 5	3.2	2.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	14
Home side won	1
Drawn	2
Away side won	11
Goals, home side	12
Goals, away side	35

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 11.1% · Draw 21.7% · Away 67.2% — bet365, pre_match.

FC Andorra v Burgos

laliga-2 · 19:30 UK

Finished 2–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	18	7
Position last season	13	7
Points this season	9	17
Goal difference this season	-4	+3
Elo rating going in	1,421	1,523
Matches on record, all seasons	135	220
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	9
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.8	1.0
Clean sheets, last 10	1	3
Failed to score, last 10	4	3
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	8	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.8	12.0
Shots on target, last 5	5.4	4.4
Shots per possession	0.256	0.230
On-target shots per possession	0.095	0.075
Inside-box shots per possession	0.158	0.162
Share of shots from inside the box	60.3%	70.9%
Expected goals, last 5	1.50	1.68
Possession, last 5	56.6%	48.6%
Corners, last 5	6.0	4.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.285	0.281
On-target allowed per possession	0.105	0.084
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.168	0.182
Opponents' inside-box share	59.4%	64.9%
Save rate	59.8%	74.1%
Saves, last 5	2.2	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.02	1.42
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	469	387
Fouls, last 5	18.8	14.0
Cards, last 5	3.2	3.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	2
Drawn	1
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	4
Goals, away side	5

Paris Saint Germain v Lyon

ligue-1 · 19:30 UK

Finished 2–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	1
Position last season	1	4
Points this season	14	14
Goal difference this season	+5	+8
Elo rating going in	1,813	1,673
Matches on record, all seasons	592	593
Recent form
Points, last 5	12	10
Goals scored, last 5	2.0	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.8	1.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.1	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	3	3
Failed to score, last 10	0	2
Wins in a row	4	1
Unbeaten run	4	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	9	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	21.8	12.4
Shots on target, last 5	8.4	5.2
Shots per possession	0.282	0.248
On-target shots per possession	0.093	0.092
Inside-box shots per possession	0.160	0.169
Share of shots from inside the box	57.9%	68.1%
Expected goals, last 5	3.54	1.32
Possession, last 5	66.6%	50.4%
Corners, last 5	5.0	4.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.368	0.257
On-target allowed per possession	0.148	0.095
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.245	0.175
Opponents' inside-box share	62.4%	65.6%
Save rate	72.0%	69.8%
Saves, last 5	3.4	3.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.52	1.50
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	684	470
Fouls, last 5	5.6	11.0
Cards, last 5	0.8	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	32
Home side won	20
Drawn	5
Away side won	7
Goals, home side	67
Goals, away side	35

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 70.6% · Draw 16.3% · Away 13.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Sevilla v Osasuna

la-liga · 20:00 UK

Finished 2–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	6	9
Position last season	15	16
Points this season	14	11
Goal difference this season	-2	-8
Elo rating going in	1,592	1,572
Matches on record, all seasons	617	549
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	4
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	2.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	1.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.7	1.9
Clean sheets, last 10	2	3
Failed to score, last 10	1	4
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	8	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.0	11.0
Shots on target, last 5	4.6	4.0
Shots per possession	0.278	0.236
On-target shots per possession	0.100	0.095
Inside-box shots per possession	0.172	0.159
Share of shots from inside the box	59.5%	67.9%
Expected goals, last 5	1.68	2.71
Possession, last 5	40.4%	44.4%
Corners, last 5	3.0	3.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.210	0.223
On-target allowed per possession	0.080	0.069
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.127	0.115
Opponents' inside-box share	57.9%	47.0%
Save rate	64.2%	58.1%
Saves, last 5	3.2	2.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.18	1.64
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	361	374
Fouls, last 5	13.0	15.4
Cards, last 5	2.6	2.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	24
Home side won	12
Drawn	6
Away side won	6
Goals, home side	36
Goals, away side	23

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 50.3% · Draw 27.8% · Away 21.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.