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The data behind the ratings

Tuesday 27 October 2026 · everything below is a stored value, as it was that morning

Sassuolo v Lazio

serie-a · 17:30 UK

Finished 2–6. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	14	1
Position last season	11	9
Points this season	8	22
Goal difference this season	-4	+11
Elo rating going in	1,559	1,721
Matches on record, all seasons	464	616
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	13
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	2.4
Goals conceded, last 5	2.2	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	1.8
Goals conceded, last 10	2.0	0.8
Clean sheets, last 10	0	4
Failed to score, last 10	2	1
Wins in a row	0	4
Unbeaten run	0	9
Losses in a row	2	0
Days since last match	3	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.2	13.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.8	4.6
Shots per possession	0.281	0.254
On-target shots per possession	0.105	0.091
Inside-box shots per possession	0.168	0.147
Share of shots from inside the box	60.3%	58.3%
Expected goals, last 5	1.19	1.53
Possession, last 5	50.6%	52.2%
Corners, last 5	3.8	5.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.320	0.257
On-target allowed per possession	0.133	0.100
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.211	0.181
Opponents' inside-box share	68.5%	70.9%
Save rate	67.5%	79.8%
Saves, last 5	5.0	4.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.50	1.31
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	87.5%	84.5%
Passes, last 5	468	489
Fouls, last 5	9.4	9.0
Cards, last 5	1.4	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	24
Home side won	6
Drawn	4
Away side won	14
Goals, home side	28
Goals, away side	45

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 29.1% · Draw 26.3% · Away 44.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

AS Roma v Cagliari

serie-a · 19:45 UK

Finished 4–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	3	8
Position last season	3	14
Points this season	18	13
Goal difference this season	+13	-3
Elo rating going in	1,780	1,576
Matches on record, all seasons	616	540
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	2.3	1.0
Goals conceded, last 10	0.6	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	7	3
Failed to score, last 10	1	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	15	0
Losses in a row	0	2
Days since last match	3	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	2.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	16.0	6.8
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	3.0
Shots per possession	0.327	0.249
On-target shots per possession	0.104	0.092
Inside-box shots per possession	0.228	0.157
Share of shots from inside the box	69.9%	65.3%
Expected goals, last 5	1.63	1.07
Possession, last 5	51.2%	42.6%
Corners, last 5	6.0	2.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.234	0.294
On-target allowed per possession	0.084	0.085
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.140	0.182
Opponents' inside-box share	59.6%	58.8%
Save rate	74.4%	74.5%
Saves, last 5	3.2	4.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.52	1.78
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	83.0%	83.5%
Passes, last 5	490	428
Fouls, last 5	12.6	12.6
Cards, last 5	3.0	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	28
Home side won	17
Drawn	5
Away side won	6
Goals, home side	53
Goals, away side	33

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 72.0% · Draw 18.7% · Away 9.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Leicester v Wigan

league-one · 19:45 UK

Finished 3–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	12	24
Position last season	21	16
Points this season	15	7
Goal difference this season	+0	-9
Elo rating going in	1,462	1,332
Matches on record, all seasons	623	725
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	3
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	0.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	0.6
Goals conceded, last 10	1.6	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	3	2
Failed to score, last 10	2	6
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	2
Days since last match	3	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	2.0	0.4
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	1.2
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	16.2	9.0
Shots on target, last 5	6.6	2.2
Shots per possession	0.233	0.228
On-target shots per possession	0.090	0.053
Inside-box shots per possession	0.161	0.144
Share of shots from inside the box	68.2%	61.8%
Expected goals, last 5	1.93	0.63
Possession, last 5	67.2%	52.0%
Corners, last 5	7.6	4.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.376	0.315
On-target allowed per possession	0.147	0.094
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.239	0.224
Opponents' inside-box share	63.3%	70.5%
Save rate	68.8%	70.3%
Saves, last 5	4.0	3.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.02	2.31
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	611	440
Fouls, last 5	11.4	13.4
Cards, last 5	1.8	4.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	1
Drawn	1
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	4
Goals, away side	2

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 68.1% · Draw 18.5% · Away 13.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Luton v Doncaster

league-one · 19:45 UK

Finished 3–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	9	17
Position last season	7	14
Points this season	17	12
Goal difference this season	+2	-1
Elo rating going in	1,468	1,359
Matches on record, all seasons	376	507
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	9
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.7	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.6	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	1	4
Failed to score, last 10	1	3
Wins in a row	2	1
Unbeaten run	2	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	3	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.4	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	0.8	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	17.6	12.4
Shots on target, last 5	5.8	3.0
Shots per possession	0.291	0.308
On-target shots per possession	0.104	0.083
Inside-box shots per possession	0.206	0.190
Share of shots from inside the box	70.5%	60.3%
Expected goals, last 5	2.14	0.70
Possession, last 5	51.4%	38.8%
Corners, last 5	8.4	4.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.247	0.262
On-target allowed per possession	0.088	0.091
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.175	0.187
Opponents' inside-box share	68.9%	70.4%
Save rate	62.8%	75.7%
Saves, last 5	3.2	4.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.49	1.84
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	393	313
Fouls, last 5	14.0	10.4
Cards, last 5	1.2	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	2
Drawn	1
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	7
Goals, away side	3

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 61.5% · Draw 20.7% · Away 17.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Milton Keynes Dons v Bromley

league-one · 19:45 UK

Finished 4–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	18	22
Position last season	—	—
Points this season	12	9
Goal difference this season	-6	-16
Elo rating going in	1,381	1,358
Matches on record, all seasons	510	11
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	4
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.0	0.9
Goals conceded, last 10	1.6	2.6
Clean sheets, last 10	3	0
Failed to score, last 10	3	4
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	1	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	3	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.8	6.6
Shots on target, last 5	3.2	3.0
Shots per possession	0.282	0.237
On-target shots per possession	0.069	0.100
Inside-box shots per possession	0.199	0.123
Share of shots from inside the box	69.6%	53.9%
Expected goals, last 5	1.31	0.57
Possession, last 5	48.4%	30.6%
Corners, last 5	5.2	2.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.284	0.264
On-target allowed per possession	0.096	0.098
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.192	0.184
Opponents' inside-box share	67.0%	69.4%
Save rate	67.2%	65.4%
Saves, last 5	2.6	4.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.64	1.90
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	329	227
Fouls, last 5	14.8	12.8
Cards, last 5	2.0	2.2

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 58.8% · Draw 22.1% · Away 19.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Oxford United v Stockport County

league-one · 19:45 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	7	2
Position last season	23	3
Points this season	19	23
Goal difference this season	+8	+12
Elo rating going in	1,476	1,496
Matches on record, all seasons	467	109
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	13
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	0.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.8	2.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.0	0.9
Clean sheets, last 10	3	5
Failed to score, last 10	1	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	7	6
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	3	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	0.8	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	0.6
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.8	16.6
Shots on target, last 5	4.2	5.0
Shots per possession	0.259	0.275
On-target shots per possession	0.089	0.083
Inside-box shots per possession	0.144	0.208
Share of shots from inside the box	54.6%	75.4%
Expected goals, last 5	1.45	2.35
Possession, last 5	52.8%	65.6%
Corners, last 5	5.4	7.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.289	0.206
On-target allowed per possession	0.063	0.092
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.203	0.144
Opponents' inside-box share	65.9%	69.5%
Save rate	68.2%	70.9%
Saves, last 5	2.0	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.53	0.59
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	431	613
Fouls, last 5	12.0	8.2
Cards, last 5	1.8	1.2

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 28.2% · Draw 24.7% · Away 47.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Sheffield Wednesday v Cambridge United

league-one · 19:45 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	8	6
Position last season	24	—
Points this season	18	20
Goal difference this season	+8	+3
Elo rating going in	1,366	1,348
Matches on record, all seasons	711	196
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	8
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.8	1.6
Goals conceded, last 10	1.1	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	3	1
Failed to score, last 10	5	0
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	2	1
Days since last match	3	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.0	17.4
Shots on target, last 5	5.2	5.8
Shots per possession	0.244	0.293
On-target shots per possession	0.095	0.093
Inside-box shots per possession	0.172	0.218
Share of shots from inside the box	69.7%	73.4%
Expected goals, last 5	1.51	1.60
Possession, last 5	57.6%	57.8%
Corners, last 5	3.8	11.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.322	0.228
On-target allowed per possession	0.080	0.076
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.216	0.152
Opponents' inside-box share	65.3%	67.1%
Save rate	68.1%	64.2%
Saves, last 5	2.0	2.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.50	1.46
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	485	376
Fouls, last 5	11.8	9.0
Cards, last 5	2.6	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	3
Drawn	1
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	14
Goals, away side	1

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 47.1% · Draw 25.1% · Away 27.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Torino v Como

serie-a · 19:45 UK

Finished 1–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	7	4
Position last season	13	4
Points this season	13	17
Goal difference this season	+2	+7
Elo rating going in	1,601	1,734
Matches on record, all seasons	540	84
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	10
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	1.9
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	0.8
Clean sheets, last 10	1	3
Failed to score, last 10	1	2
Wins in a row	3	2
Unbeaten run	4	3
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	4	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.6	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.8	0.2
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.8	20.8
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	6.6
Shots per possession	0.216	0.327
On-target shots per possession	0.075	0.109
Inside-box shots per possession	0.129	0.216
Share of shots from inside the box	59.5%	66.4%
Expected goals, last 5	1.45	2.09
Possession, last 5	50.2%	61.0%
Corners, last 5	3.2	7.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.312	0.305
On-target allowed per possession	0.089	0.076
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.223	0.191
Opponents' inside-box share	69.9%	65.2%
Save rate	64.6%	68.7%
Saves, last 5	2.6	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.11	1.38
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	81.0%	88.0%
Passes, last 5	457	584
Fouls, last 5	9.4	9.8
Cards, last 5	1.2	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	1
Drawn	0
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	2
Goals, away side	12

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 17.8% · Draw 25.2% · Away 57.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.