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The data behind the ratings

Wednesday 28 October 2026 · everything below is a stored value, as it was that morning

AC Milan v Bologna

serie-a · 17:30 UK

Finished 2–4. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	4	13
Position last season	5	8
Points this season	18	8
Goal difference this season	+9	-2
Elo rating going in	1,746	1,646
Matches on record, all seasons	616	578
Recent form
Points, last 5	11	7
Goals scored, last 5	2.2	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.9	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.0	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	3	2
Failed to score, last 10	0	3
Wins in a row	2	1
Unbeaten run	8	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	3	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	1.0
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	0.6
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.4	9.4
Shots on target, last 5	6.0	3.4
Shots per possession	0.229	0.243
On-target shots per possession	0.088	0.079
Inside-box shots per possession	0.179	0.155
Share of shots from inside the box	74.1%	62.8%
Expected goals, last 5	2.07	1.02
Possession, last 5	62.0%	40.6%
Corners, last 5	3.6	2.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.260	0.236
On-target allowed per possession	0.099	0.072
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.152	0.154
Opponents' inside-box share	60.5%	67.3%
Save rate	75.3%	67.9%
Saves, last 5	3.4	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.16	1.52
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	91.0%	80.5%
Passes, last 5	635	359
Fouls, last 5	10.0	11.4
Cards, last 5	2.0	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	30
Home side won	21
Drawn	7
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	58
Goals, away side	24

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 56.3% · Draw 24.4% · Away 19.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Parma v Udinese

serie-a · 17:30 UK

Finished 0–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	19	17
Position last season	12	10
Points this season	4	4
Goal difference this season	-10	-9
Elo rating going in	1,530	1,546
Matches on record, all seasons	388	616
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	0
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	2.2	2.6
Goals scored, last 10	0.6	0.9
Goals conceded, last 10	1.6	2.0
Clean sheets, last 10	1	0
Failed to score, last 10	5	5
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	3	6
Days since last match	4	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Scored away, last 5 there	0.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.2	14.6
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	3.6
Shots per possession	0.227	0.267
On-target shots per possession	0.079	0.084
Inside-box shots per possession	0.160	0.162
Share of shots from inside the box	72.8%	61.0%
Expected goals, last 5	0.91	0.97
Possession, last 5	40.4%	53.6%
Corners, last 5	3.2	5.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.276	0.303
On-target allowed per possession	0.081	0.129
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.188	0.200
Opponents' inside-box share	66.1%	62.4%
Save rate	71.6%	68.3%
Saves, last 5	3.4	4.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.98	2.79
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	80.0%	86.5%
Passes, last 5	376	504
Fouls, last 5	9.4	9.8
Cards, last 5	1.4	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	20
Home side won	9
Drawn	3
Away side won	8
Goals, home side	30
Goals, away side	31

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 33.7% · Draw 30.8% · Away 35.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Venezia v Inter

serie-a · 17:30 UK

Finished 0–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	20	1
Position last season	—	1
Points this season	3	22
Goal difference this season	-11	+13
Elo rating going in	1,457	1,877
Matches on record, all seasons	84	616
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	13
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	3.0
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	0.8	2.7
Goals conceded, last 10	2.3	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	1	2
Failed to score, last 10	5	0
Wins in a row	0	3
Unbeaten run	0	18
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	3	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	3.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.0	22.4
Shots on target, last 5	4.6	8.4
Shots per possession	0.266	0.336
On-target shots per possession	0.082	0.116
Inside-box shots per possession	0.171	0.244
Share of shots from inside the box	65.4%	72.8%
Expected goals, last 5	1.52	2.83
Possession, last 5	52.0%	60.8%
Corners, last 5	5.2	5.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.366	0.301
On-target allowed per possession	0.151	0.100
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.249	0.192
Opponents' inside-box share	64.9%	64.7%
Save rate	63.2%	66.7%
Saves, last 5	5.0	2.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.02	0.89
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	87.5%	89.5%
Passes, last 5	497	599
Fouls, last 5	9.6	10.6
Cards, last 5	2.4	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	0
Drawn	0
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	1
Goals, away side	6

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 12.2% · Draw 16.5% · Away 71.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Aberdeen v Falkirk

scottish-prem · 19:45 UK

Finished 0–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	9	7
Position last season	9	6
Points this season	11	12
Goal difference this season	-1	+0
Elo rating going in	1,476	1,532
Matches on record, all seasons	607	48
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	10
Goals scored, last 5	2.0	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	2	2
Failed to score, last 10	5	2
Wins in a row	0	2
Unbeaten run	0	2
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	4	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.8	14.0
Shots on target, last 5	4.2	5.2
Shots per possession	0.276	0.258
On-target shots per possession	0.076	0.084
Inside-box shots per possession	0.174	0.168
Share of shots from inside the box	62.2%	64.7%
Expected goals, last 5	1.73	1.61
Possession, last 5	46.8%	49.0%
Corners, last 5	6.8	5.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.284	0.293
On-target allowed per possession	0.099	0.097
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.184	0.210
Opponents' inside-box share	66.0%	70.5%
Save rate	72.2%	75.6%
Saves, last 5	3.0	3.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.23	1.58
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	413	378
Fouls, last 5	11.0	15.2
Cards, last 5	1.4	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	3
Home side won	0
Drawn	1
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	1
Goals, away side	3

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 44.9% · Draw 27.2% · Away 27.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Celtic v Dundee Utd

scottish-prem · 19:45 UK

Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	4
Position last season	1	7
Points this season	27	15
Goal difference this season	+19	+0
Elo rating going in	1,812	1,524
Matches on record, all seasons	605	426
Recent form
Points, last 5	12	11
Goals scored, last 5	2.4	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	0.6	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	2.5	1.4
Goals conceded, last 10	0.6	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	4	3
Failed to score, last 10	1	3
Wins in a row	3	1
Unbeaten run	3	5
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	3	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	2.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.6	17.0
Shots on target, last 5	7.8	7.8
Shots per possession	0.337	0.299
On-target shots per possession	0.149	0.113
Inside-box shots per possession	0.245	0.202
Share of shots from inside the box	72.6%	65.9%
Expected goals, last 5	2.76	1.49
Possession, last 5	56.0%	50.6%
Corners, last 5	8.0	7.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.287	0.320
On-target allowed per possession	0.092	0.099
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.195	0.215
Opponents' inside-box share	68.7%	66.7%
Save rate	77.0%	69.2%
Saves, last 5	3.2	2.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.20	1.25
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	567	433
Fouls, last 5	12.2	12.6
Cards, last 5	2.4	2.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	40
Home side won	29
Drawn	7
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	106
Goals, away side	26

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 75.9% · Draw 15.8% · Away 8.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Dundee v Kilmarnock

scottish-prem · 19:45 UK

Finished 3–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	5	11
Position last season	8	10
Points this season	14	8
Goal difference this season	+2	-13
Elo rating going in	1,498	1,479
Matches on record, all seasons	394	571
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	1.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	2.3
Clean sheets, last 10	2	2
Failed to score, last 10	1	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	1
Days since last match	4	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	1.0
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	2.0
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.8	11.0
Shots on target, last 5	5.4	3.6
Shots per possession	0.306	0.253
On-target shots per possession	0.110	0.091
Inside-box shots per possession	0.212	0.193
Share of shots from inside the box	68.7%	77.3%
Expected goals, last 5	1.58	1.55
Possession, last 5	44.2%	40.4%
Corners, last 5	5.8	4.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.305	0.310
On-target allowed per possession	0.090	0.106
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.198	0.223
Opponents' inside-box share	66.2%	69.9%
Save rate	75.9%	68.7%
Saves, last 5	4.4	4.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.74	2.01
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	361	357
Fouls, last 5	12.4	11.4
Cards, last 5	2.0	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	35
Home side won	9
Drawn	17
Away side won	9
Goals, home side	49
Goals, away side	48

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 49.0% · Draw 24.6% · Away 26.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Genoa v Juventus

serie-a · 19:45 UK

Finished 2–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	16	7
Position last season	16	6
Points this season	7	14
Goal difference this season	-7	+3
Elo rating going in	1,553	1,738
Matches on record, all seasons	578	616
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	0.7	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.6	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	1	4
Failed to score, last 10	4	2
Wins in a row	1	1
Unbeaten run	1	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	3	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.6	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	1.2
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.0	14.2
Shots on target, last 5	3.8	5.4
Shots per possession	0.219	0.291
On-target shots per possession	0.058	0.096
Inside-box shots per possession	0.147	0.172
Share of shots from inside the box	66.0%	60.3%
Expected goals, last 5	0.99	1.24
Possession, last 5	43.6%	59.0%
Corners, last 5	4.2	6.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.262	0.216
On-target allowed per possession	0.086	0.077
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.159	0.125
Opponents' inside-box share	58.5%	56.2%
Save rate	70.9%	62.8%
Saves, last 5	3.2	1.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.32	0.72
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	74.5%	88.0%
Passes, last 5	355	569
Fouls, last 5	10.8	10.0
Cards, last 5	3.2	0.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	30
Home side won	4
Drawn	6
Away side won	20
Goals, home side	22
Goals, away side	51

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 17.8% · Draw 25.5% · Away 56.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Monza v Napoli

serie-a · 19:45 UK

Finished 1–4. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	14	9
Position last season	—	2
Points this season	7	11
Goal difference this season	-3	+3
Elo rating going in	1,451	1,745
Matches on record, all seasons	122	616
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	8
Goals scored, last 5	2.2	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	1.7
Goals conceded, last 10	2.3	1.0
Clean sheets, last 10	1	5
Failed to score, last 10	1	1
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	5	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.8	18.2
Shots on target, last 5	6.4	7.0
Shots per possession	0.273	0.283
On-target shots per possession	0.112	0.107
Inside-box shots per possession	0.182	0.199
Share of shots from inside the box	64.3%	65.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.79	2.28
Possession, last 5	44.8%	55.6%
Corners, last 5	5.0	7.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.261	0.305
On-target allowed per possession	0.101	0.081
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.170	0.201
Opponents' inside-box share	69.0%	66.7%
Save rate	61.2%	69.1%
Saves, last 5	4.0	2.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.55	0.97
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	80.5%	89.5%
Passes, last 5	393	533
Fouls, last 5	9.8	8.8
Cards, last 5	1.4	0.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	1
Drawn	1
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	4
Goals, away side	11

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 22.0% · Draw 23.3% · Away 54.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

ST Johnstone v Motherwell

scottish-prem · 19:45 UK

Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	8	10
Position last season	—	4
Points this season	12	8
Goal difference this season	-4	-7
Elo rating going in	1,430	1,542
Matches on record, all seasons	571	607
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	0
Goals scored, last 5	0.6	0.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	2.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	1.8
Clean sheets, last 10	1	2
Failed to score, last 10	3	5
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	6
Days since last match	4	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	8.4	13.4
Shots on target, last 5	3.2	4.6
Shots per possession	0.216	0.255
On-target shots per possession	0.074	0.085
Inside-box shots per possession	0.146	0.176
Share of shots from inside the box	69.6%	69.0%
Expected goals, last 5	1.03	1.63
Possession, last 5	38.6%	55.0%
Corners, last 5	2.6	5.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.267	0.362
On-target allowed per possession	0.100	0.129
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.182	0.254
Opponents' inside-box share	69.5%	66.4%
Save rate	78.2%	65.4%
Saves, last 5	5.6	4.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.35	1.85
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	352	518
Fouls, last 5	11.2	8.4
Cards, last 5	1.8	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	54
Home side won	23
Drawn	10
Away side won	21
Goals, home side	73
Goals, away side	78

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 38.2% · Draw 27.8% · Away 34.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

ST Mirren v Hibernian

scottish-prem · 19:45 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	6	12
Position last season	11	5
Points this season	13	7
Goal difference this season	-7	-6
Elo rating going in	1,477	1,541
Matches on record, all seasons	495	493
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	1
Goals scored, last 5	0.6	0.6
Goals conceded, last 5	2.6	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	1.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.8	1.6
Clean sheets, last 10	3	0
Failed to score, last 10	3	2
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	1	0
Losses in a row	0	3
Days since last match	4	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.4	0.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.8	1.8
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.0	15.6
Shots on target, last 5	3.0	3.6
Shots per possession	0.269	0.321
On-target shots per possession	0.083	0.079
Inside-box shots per possession	0.167	0.227
Share of shots from inside the box	62.4%	70.5%
Expected goals, last 5	1.08	1.16
Possession, last 5	54.4%	55.2%
Corners, last 5	2.8	6.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.321	0.265
On-target allowed per possession	0.113	0.110
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.228	0.163
Opponents' inside-box share	71.0%	61.0%
Save rate	65.3%	70.4%
Saves, last 5	4.0	4.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.45	1.24
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	470	467
Fouls, last 5	15.0	10.8
Cards, last 5	2.4	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	43
Home side won	11
Drawn	12
Away side won	20
Goals, home side	46
Goals, away side	60

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 30.9% · Draw 25.8% · Away 43.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Heart Of Midlothian v Rangers

scottish-prem · 20:00 UK

Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	3	2
Position last season	2	3
Points this season	19	23
Goal difference this season	+7	+10
Elo rating going in	1,675	1,733
Matches on record, all seasons	530	452
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	13
Goals scored, last 5	2.0	2.2
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	0.6
Goals scored, last 10	2.2	1.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	0.7
Clean sheets, last 10	3	5
Failed to score, last 10	0	0
Wins in a row	1	1
Unbeaten run	1	8
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	3	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.6	18.6
Shots on target, last 5	4.6	7.4
Shots per possession	0.323	0.362
On-target shots per possession	0.107	0.125
Inside-box shots per possession	0.226	0.247
Share of shots from inside the box	70.1%	67.1%
Expected goals, last 5	1.97	2.64
Possession, last 5	54.6%	56.6%
Corners, last 5	4.8	8.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.224	0.235
On-target allowed per possession	0.065	0.075
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.163	0.168
Opponents' inside-box share	71.9%	72.2%
Save rate	60.9%	75.8%
Saves, last 5	2.2	2.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.11	1.21
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	476	472
Fouls, last 5	12.8	13.2
Cards, last 5	2.6	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	42
Home side won	8
Drawn	7
Away side won	27
Goals, home side	37
Goals, away side	86

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 28.9% · Draw 25.5% · Away 45.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.