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The data behind the ratings

Friday 30 October 2026 · everything below is a stored value, as it was that morning

Konyaspor v Galatasaray

super-lig · 17:00 UK

Finished 0–4. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	14	1
Position last season	9	1
Points this season	8	22
Goal difference this season	-3	+7
Elo rating going in	1,571	1,896
Matches on record, all seasons	469	543
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	12
Goals scored, last 5	0.6	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	0.2	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	0.7	1.9
Goals conceded, last 10	1.1	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	4	3
Failed to score, last 10	5	2
Wins in a row	1	3
Unbeaten run	1	3
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	5	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	0.8	2.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	0.6	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.2	21.6
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	7.0
Shots per possession	0.238	0.346
On-target shots per possession	0.074	0.119
Inside-box shots per possession	0.163	0.235
Share of shots from inside the box	66.9%	67.8%
Expected goals, last 5	0.93	1.95
Possession, last 5	47.4%	61.8%
Corners, last 5	4.2	9.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.255	0.262
On-target allowed per possession	0.091	0.092
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.153	0.181
Opponents' inside-box share	57.7%	68.5%
Save rate	76.8%	64.2%
Saves, last 5	2.4	2.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.98	1.00
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	78.2%	85.2%
Passes, last 5	362	460
Fouls, last 5	12.4	12.6
Cards, last 5	2.2	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	26
Home side won	4
Drawn	5
Away side won	17
Goals, home side	20
Goals, away side	44

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 17.2% · Draw 21.3% · Away 61.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Le Havre v Paris Saint Germain

ligue-1 · 18:00 UK

Finished 1–5. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	18	1
Position last season	14	1
Points this season	2	17
Goal difference this season	-7	+7
Elo rating going in	1,473	1,817
Matches on record, all seasons	110	593
Recent form
Points, last 5	1	15
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	2.2
Goals conceded, last 5	2.2	0.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.0	1.9
Goals conceded, last 10	1.6	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	2	3
Failed to score, last 10	4	0
Wins in a row	0	5
Unbeaten run	0	5
Losses in a row	4	0
Days since last match	5	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	17.4	20.6
Shots on target, last 5	5.6	8.4
Shots per possession	0.304	0.273
On-target shots per possession	0.097	0.099
Inside-box shots per possession	0.201	0.162
Share of shots from inside the box	66.3%	60.0%
Expected goals, last 5	2.02	2.71
Possession, last 5	49.0%	66.6%
Corners, last 5	5.2	5.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.237	0.384
On-target allowed per possession	0.088	0.157
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.150	0.252
Opponents' inside-box share	61.9%	60.7%
Save rate	66.7%	73.2%
Saves, last 5	1.4	4.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.89	1.25
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	412	684
Fouls, last 5	13.8	5.4
Cards, last 5	1.8	1.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	0
Drawn	1
Away side won	5
Goals, home side	5
Goals, away side	15

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 9.9% · Draw 14.2% · Away 75.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Nice v Rennes

ligue-1 · 18:00 UK

Finished 5–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	8	1
Position last season	16	6
Points this season	11	16
Goal difference this season	-2	+4
Elo rating going in	1,569	1,653
Matches on record, all seasons	596	594
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	9
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	2.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	2.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.1	1.8
Clean sheets, last 10	2	2
Failed to score, last 10	4	1
Wins in a row	1	1
Unbeaten run	1	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	5
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.8	16.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.2	6.6
Shots per possession	0.212	0.328
On-target shots per possession	0.074	0.116
Inside-box shots per possession	0.140	0.214
Share of shots from inside the box	63.3%	64.5%
Expected goals, last 5	1.15	2.66
Possession, last 5	51.0%	51.2%
Corners, last 5	5.8	5.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.246	0.332
On-target allowed per possession	0.089	0.121
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.146	0.205
Opponents' inside-box share	54.6%	59.6%
Save rate	67.8%	65.8%
Saves, last 5	4.2	4.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.57	2.12
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	500	491
Fouls, last 5	11.0	13.4
Cards, last 5	2.8	2.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	32
Home side won	16
Drawn	6
Away side won	10
Goals, home side	44
Goals, away side	37

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 35.3% · Draw 25.3% · Away 39.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

SV Elversberg v FSV Mainz 05

bundesliga · 19:30 UK

Finished 4–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	8	7
Position last season	—	10
Points this season	10	10
Goal difference this season	-3	+3
Elo rating going in	1,575	1,567
Matches on record, all seasons	9	551
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	6
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	2.2
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	2.6
Goals scored, last 10	—	2.1
Goals conceded, last 10	—	1.7
Clean sheets, last 10	1	4
Failed to score, last 10	3	1
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	1
Days since last match	6	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.4	17.2
Shots on target, last 5	2.6	6.4
Shots per possession	0.234	0.340
On-target shots per possession	0.091	0.124
Inside-box shots per possession	0.164	0.259
Share of shots from inside the box	65.9%	76.3%
Expected goals, last 5	1.55	2.06
Possession, last 5	46.0%	52.4%
Corners, last 5	4.0	3.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.376	0.272
On-target allowed per possession	0.103	0.099
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.272	0.193
Opponents' inside-box share	71.8%	69.3%
Save rate	61.9%	65.7%
Saves, last 5	3.4	3.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.67	1.54
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	406	484
Fouls, last 5	12.4	12.6
Cards, last 5	2.0	2.4

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 31.1% · Draw 24.8% · Away 44.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Sheffield Utd v Wrexham

championship · 20:00 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	11	17
Position last season	13	7
Points this season	16	14
Goal difference this season	+1	-3
Elo rating going in	1,521	1,542
Matches on record, all seasons	689	104
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	1.6
Clean sheets, last 10	2	2
Failed to score, last 10	1	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	2	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	6	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.4	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	0.8
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	1.8
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.0	14.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.8	3.6
Shots per possession	0.249	0.240
On-target shots per possession	0.096	0.064
Inside-box shots per possession	0.165	0.179
Share of shots from inside the box	63.5%	74.5%
Expected goals, last 5	1.60	1.37
Possession, last 5	47.2%	51.0%
Corners, last 5	4.2	6.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.287	0.275
On-target allowed per possession	0.089	0.089
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.202	0.169
Opponents' inside-box share	69.8%	61.2%
Save rate	67.7%	59.5%
Saves, last 5	2.8	2.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.33	0.99
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	359	411
Fouls, last 5	10.8	9.4
Cards, last 5	2.6	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	0
Drawn	0
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	4
Goals, away side	7

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 39.3% · Draw 28.3% · Away 32.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Villarreal v Espanyol

la-liga · 20:00 UK

Finished 0–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	8	18
Position last season	3	11
Points this season	12	8
Goal difference this season	+1	-2
Elo rating going in	1,699	1,539
Matches on record, all seasons	580	630
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	1
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	1	2
Failed to score, last 10	3	1
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	2	0
Losses in a row	0	2
Days since last match	6	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	1.2
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	1.4
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	18.2	14.4
Shots on target, last 5	5.6	3.2
Shots per possession	0.273	0.260
On-target shots per possession	0.100	0.072
Inside-box shots per possession	0.182	0.156
Share of shots from inside the box	66.6%	58.7%
Expected goals, last 5	1.46	0.79
Possession, last 5	59.8%	45.6%
Corners, last 5	7.4	3.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.298	0.233
On-target allowed per possession	0.092	0.099
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.185	0.149
Opponents' inside-box share	63.5%	61.9%
Save rate	67.3%	70.4%
Saves, last 5	1.6	4.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.98	1.56
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	551	373
Fouls, last 5	10.6	14.2
Cards, last 5	2.0	3.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	26
Home side won	14
Drawn	9
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	42
Goals, away side	22

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 68.3% · Draw 18.3% · Away 13.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Lille v Lens

ligue-1 · 20:05 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	6
Position last season	3	2
Points this season	15	13
Goal difference this season	+5	+4
Elo rating going in	1,692	1,680
Matches on record, all seasons	594	300
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	10
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	2.0
Goals conceded, last 10	0.8	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	5	1
Failed to score, last 10	1	2
Wins in a row	0	3
Unbeaten run	3	3
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	5	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.0	13.0
Shots on target, last 5	4.4	4.6
Shots per possession	0.216	0.313
On-target shots per possession	0.093	0.123
Inside-box shots per possession	0.144	0.231
Share of shots from inside the box	67.5%	73.4%
Expected goals, last 5	1.41	1.31
Possession, last 5	54.4%	51.6%
Corners, last 5	3.8	6.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.279	0.221
On-target allowed per possession	0.080	0.086
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.180	0.154
Opponents' inside-box share	65.6%	71.5%
Save rate	75.3%	69.3%
Saves, last 5	2.4	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.48	0.92
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	515	502
Fouls, last 5	12.4	12.6
Cards, last 5	2.0	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	16
Home side won	10
Drawn	3
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	28
Goals, away side	12

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 37.2% · Draw 27.8% · Away 35.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Casa Pia v Sporting CP

primeira-liga · 20:15 UK

Finished 0–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	16	3
Position last season	16	2
Points this season	7	18
Goal difference this season	-12	+10
Elo rating going in	1,523	1,883
Matches on record, all seasons	147	537
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	8
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	0.7	2.4
Goals conceded, last 10	1.7	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	3	3
Failed to score, last 10	6	0
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	1	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	6	5
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.6	16.4
Shots on target, last 5	3.4	4.6
Shots per possession	0.239	0.219
On-target shots per possession	0.083	0.078
Inside-box shots per possession	0.147	0.154
Share of shots from inside the box	65.0%	66.4%
Expected goals, last 5	0.66	1.52
Possession, last 5	37.2%	62.2%
Corners, last 5	4.2	6.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.277	0.218
On-target allowed per possession	0.088	0.063
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.175	0.122
Opponents' inside-box share	62.1%	49.4%
Save rate	66.2%	66.0%
Saves, last 5	3.8	2.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.20	1.20
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	280	566
Fouls, last 5	12.0	10.8
Cards, last 5	2.8	2.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	8
Home side won	0
Drawn	0
Away side won	8
Goals, home side	6
Goals, away side	27

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 9.1% · Draw 16.3% · Away 74.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.