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The data behind the ratings

Saturday 31 October 2026 · everything below is a stored value, as it was that morning

Erzurumspor FK v Çorum FK

super-lig · 10:30 UK

Finished 1–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	8	9
Position last season	—	—
Points this season	14	13
Goal difference this season	-4	+3
Elo rating going in	1,543	1,634
Matches on record, all seasons	83	9
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	9
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	2.2
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	—
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	—
Clean sheets, last 10	4	2
Failed to score, last 10	4	2
Wins in a row	2	0
Unbeaten run	4	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	7	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	2.4
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	2.2
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.6	12.0
Shots on target, last 5	2.8	5.8
Shots per possession	0.241	0.239
On-target shots per possession	0.081	0.101
Inside-box shots per possession	0.146	0.130
Share of shots from inside the box	57.8%	53.6%
Expected goals, last 5	0.89	1.29
Possession, last 5	38.2%	53.2%
Corners, last 5	2.4	3.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.240	0.322
On-target allowed per possession	0.078	0.111
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.157	0.203
Opponents' inside-box share	64.5%	63.5%
Save rate	70.3%	68.2%
Saves, last 5	4.4	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.03	1.24
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	81.0%	84.0%
Passes, last 5	360	471
Fouls, last 5	11.4	15.2
Cards, last 5	1.2	2.8

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 35.4% · Draw 29.4% · Away 35.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Bradford v Huddersfield

league-one · 12:30 UK

Finished 0–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	3	1
Position last season	4	9
Points this season	22	25
Goal difference this season	+5	+13
Elo rating going in	1,439	1,454
Matches on record, all seasons	341	694
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	13
Goals scored, last 5	0.6	2.6
Goals conceded, last 5	0.2	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	0.7	2.0
Goals conceded, last 10	0.5	1.0
Clean sheets, last 10	7	2
Failed to score, last 10	4	1
Wins in a row	0	3
Unbeaten run	8	5
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.4	15.2
Shots on target, last 5	2.4	6.4
Shots per possession	0.198	0.312
On-target shots per possession	0.057	0.124
Inside-box shots per possession	0.150	0.255
Share of shots from inside the box	76.6%	79.3%
Expected goals, last 5	1.51	2.65
Possession, last 5	57.6%	41.6%
Corners, last 5	9.2	7.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.268	0.194
On-target allowed per possession	0.045	0.060
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.152	0.127
Opponents' inside-box share	57.5%	63.1%
Save rate	71.0%	66.7%
Saves, last 5	1.6	2.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.11	1.10
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	373	337
Fouls, last 5	17.2	13.6
Cards, last 5	1.8	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	1
Drawn	0
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	3
Goals, away side	2

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 32.3% · Draw 28.9% · Away 38.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Chelsea v Manchester United

premier-league · 12:30 UK

Finished 2–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	4	16
Position last season	10	3
Points this season	13	7
Goal difference this season	+2	-3
Elo rating going in	1,746	1,770
Matches on record, all seasons	616	616
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	3
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	0.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	2.0	1.6
Goals conceded, last 10	1.8	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	1	1
Failed to score, last 10	2	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	1
Days since last match	7	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	2.6	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.8	1.8
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.8	17.4
Shots on target, last 5	5.2	4.2
Shots per possession	0.294	0.360
On-target shots per possession	0.118	0.104
Inside-box shots per possession	0.193	0.209
Share of shots from inside the box	61.1%	56.4%
Expected goals, last 5	1.10	0.99
Possession, last 5	50.6%	51.6%
Corners, last 5	7.0	6.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.262	0.246
On-target allowed per possession	0.107	0.094
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.188	0.187
Opponents' inside-box share	73.7%	74.1%
Save rate	72.5%	65.0%
Saves, last 5	3.4	2.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.95	1.79
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	466	513
Fouls, last 5	10.0	10.6
Cards, last 5	1.6	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	32
Home side won	8
Drawn	13
Away side won	11
Goals, home side	37
Goals, away side	44

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 47.9% · Draw 25.4% · Away 26.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Leyton Orient v Cambridge United

league-one · 12:30 UK

Finished 3–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	15	7
Position last season	20	—
Points this season	14	21
Goal difference this season	+2	+3
Elo rating going in	1,359	1,350
Matches on record, all seasons	340	197
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	8
Goals scored, last 5	0.6	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	1.6
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	4	1
Failed to score, last 10	3	0
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	2	0
Days since last match	7	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	1.6
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.8	1.2
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.8	17.4
Shots on target, last 5	4.2	6.6
Shots per possession	0.244	0.324
On-target shots per possession	0.073	0.111
Inside-box shots per possession	0.144	0.245
Share of shots from inside the box	57.1%	75.0%
Expected goals, last 5	1.56	1.63
Possession, last 5	46.6%	52.4%
Corners, last 5	4.0	12.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.308	0.247
On-target allowed per possession	0.101	0.076
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.202	0.167
Opponents' inside-box share	65.6%	68.6%
Save rate	67.2%	68.5%
Saves, last 5	2.6	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.20	1.51
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	360	342
Fouls, last 5	12.0	9.0
Cards, last 5	1.4	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	4
Drawn	0
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	8
Goals, away side	1

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 36.4% · Draw 27.9% · Away 35.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Lincoln v Birmingham

championship · 12:30 UK

Finished 1–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	15	7
Position last season	1	10
Points this season	15	20
Goal difference this season	-7	+8
Elo rating going in	1,559	1,566
Matches on record, all seasons	326	742
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	10
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	2.8	0.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	1.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	1.0
Clean sheets, last 10	4	3
Failed to score, last 10	3	1
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	2	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	2.0	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	1.0
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.0	13.2
Shots on target, last 5	3.4	4.8
Shots per possession	0.293	0.275
On-target shots per possession	0.078	0.102
Inside-box shots per possession	0.199	0.210
Share of shots from inside the box	66.1%	77.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.10	1.78
Possession, last 5	42.0%	55.8%
Corners, last 5	2.2	4.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.255	0.264
On-target allowed per possession	0.087	0.074
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.150	0.180
Opponents' inside-box share	59.6%	69.0%
Save rate	64.2%	69.2%
Saves, last 5	3.0	2.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.02	1.30
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	264	446
Fouls, last 5	11.2	12.6
Cards, last 5	2.6	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	0
Drawn	0
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	1
Goals, away side	4

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 28.0% · Draw 28.0% · Away 43.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Norwich v Watford

championship · 12:30 UK

Finished 3–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	18	21
Position last season	9	16
Points this season	12	11
Goal difference this season	-2	-10
Elo rating going in	1,502	1,442
Matches on record, all seasons	659	657
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	3
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	0.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	2.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.9	0.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.7	1.8
Clean sheets, last 10	0	1
Failed to score, last 10	3	5
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	1	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	2.0	0.2
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	2.0
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.8	12.8
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	4.4
Shots per possession	0.286	0.258
On-target shots per possession	0.102	0.080
Inside-box shots per possession	0.175	0.166
Share of shots from inside the box	59.9%	61.7%
Expected goals, last 5	1.01	1.30
Possession, last 5	53.6%	49.2%
Corners, last 5	3.8	3.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.249	0.335
On-target allowed per possession	0.088	0.110
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.177	0.218
Opponents' inside-box share	70.5%	65.0%
Save rate	60.5%	71.6%
Saves, last 5	2.4	4.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.63	2.20
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	436	394
Fouls, last 5	11.2	11.2
Cards, last 5	1.6	3.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	18
Home side won	7
Drawn	0
Away side won	11
Goals, home side	29
Goals, away side	26

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 62.4% · Draw 21.5% · Away 16.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Plymouth v Reading

league-one · 12:30 UK

Finished 0–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	4	5
Position last season	8	12
Points this season	22	21
Goal difference this season	+2	+12
Elo rating going in	1,469	1,429
Matches on record, all seasons	381	697
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	10
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.7	2.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	0.9
Clean sheets, last 10	2	3
Failed to score, last 10	4	1
Wins in a row	1	2
Unbeaten run	1	2
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Scored away, last 5 there	2.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.4	12.4
Shots on target, last 5	4.4	4.4
Shots per possession	0.308	0.347
On-target shots per possession	0.114	0.117
Inside-box shots per possession	0.212	0.239
Share of shots from inside the box	68.6%	70.0%
Expected goals, last 5	1.28	2.02
Possession, last 5	49.4%	46.0%
Corners, last 5	4.2	5.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.292	0.246
On-target allowed per possession	0.091	0.076
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.222	0.145
Opponents' inside-box share	74.4%	58.3%
Save rate	66.1%	72.8%
Saves, last 5	4.2	3.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.71	1.40
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	349	345
Fouls, last 5	13.0	9.4
Cards, last 5	1.2	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	0
Drawn	1
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	3
Goals, away side	6

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 40.0% · Draw 26.5% · Away 33.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Stoke City v Preston

championship · 12:30 UK

Finished 2–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	9	24
Position last season	17	14
Points this season	20	5
Goal difference this season	+2	-15
Elo rating going in	1,485	1,424
Matches on record, all seasons	684	707
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	2
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	2.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	0.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.1	2.0
Clean sheets, last 10	4	0
Failed to score, last 10	1	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	2	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.8	0.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	0.8	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.2	12.4
Shots on target, last 5	3.0	2.0
Shots per possession	0.256	0.336
On-target shots per possession	0.085	0.070
Inside-box shots per possession	0.148	0.226
Share of shots from inside the box	57.5%	67.2%
Expected goals, last 5	0.69	0.95
Possession, last 5	47.6%	35.2%
Corners, last 5	5.0	3.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.298	0.270
On-target allowed per possession	0.081	0.073
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.213	0.165
Opponents' inside-box share	68.8%	62.2%
Save rate	72.8%	68.3%
Saves, last 5	3.2	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.87	1.87
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	383	276
Fouls, last 5	9.6	11.8
Cards, last 5	1.6	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	16
Home side won	3
Drawn	6
Away side won	7
Goals, home side	12
Goals, away side	20

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 53.0% · Draw 25.2% · Away 21.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Kocaelispor v Rizespor

super-lig · 13:00 UK

Finished 0–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	6	13
Position last season	11	8
Points this season	15	10
Goal difference this season	+2	-4
Elo rating going in	1,602	1,588
Matches on record, all seasons	43	399
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	4
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	2.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.0	1.7
Clean sheets, last 10	3	2
Failed to score, last 10	3	3
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	1	0
Losses in a row	0	3
Days since last match	8	5
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.4	12.6
Shots on target, last 5	4.2	4.6
Shots per possession	0.249	0.295
On-target shots per possession	0.081	0.095
Inside-box shots per possession	0.149	0.171
Share of shots from inside the box	58.4%	58.8%
Expected goals, last 5	1.29	1.34
Possession, last 5	49.0%	51.2%
Corners, last 5	4.6	3.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.302	0.318
On-target allowed per possession	0.078	0.110
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.173	0.214
Opponents' inside-box share	56.4%	68.4%
Save rate	76.1%	69.0%
Saves, last 5	4.0	4.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.39	1.67
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	77.6%	82.6%
Passes, last 5	396	414
Fouls, last 5	12.4	9.6
Cards, last 5	2.0	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	0
Drawn	1
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	1
Goals, away side	3

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 37.3% · Draw 27.7% · Away 35.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Levante v Atletico Madrid

la-liga · 13:00 UK

Finished 0–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	14	2
Position last season	18	4
Points this season	10	25
Goal difference this season	-3	+12
Elo rating going in	1,581	1,768
Matches on record, all seasons	638	618
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	15
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	0.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	2.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.9	0.8
Clean sheets, last 10	2	5
Failed to score, last 10	3	1
Wins in a row	0	6
Unbeaten run	0	6
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	6	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Scored away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.0	21.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.4	7.4
Shots per possession	0.278	0.302
On-target shots per possession	0.111	0.103
Inside-box shots per possession	0.185	0.168
Share of shots from inside the box	64.8%	57.1%
Expected goals, last 5	1.36	1.68
Possession, last 5	44.8%	64.8%
Corners, last 5	3.4	7.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.285	0.255
On-target allowed per possession	0.094	0.081
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.199	0.159
Opponents' inside-box share	70.1%	63.8%
Save rate	63.4%	73.0%
Saves, last 5	2.6	2.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.99	1.16
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	398	639
Fouls, last 5	11.0	12.0
Cards, last 5	2.0	3.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	24
Home side won	6
Drawn	6
Away side won	12
Goals, home side	27
Goals, away side	40

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 17.6% · Draw 19.0% · Away 63.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Real Sociedad II v Girona

laliga-2 · 13:00 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	19	4
Position last season	15	19
Points this season	8	21
Goal difference this season	-8	+12
Elo rating going in	1,366	1,577
Matches on record, all seasons	95	419
Recent form
Points, last 5	0	11
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	3.0	0.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	2.1
Goals conceded, last 10	2.1	0.9
Clean sheets, last 10	0	4
Failed to score, last 10	2	1
Wins in a row	0	2
Unbeaten run	0	6
Losses in a row	6	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.6	15.6
Shots on target, last 5	5.0	4.8
Shots per possession	0.325	0.283
On-target shots per possession	0.106	0.105
Inside-box shots per possession	0.200	0.157
Share of shots from inside the box	58.2%	55.1%
Expected goals, last 5	1.47	1.92
Possession, last 5	45.6%	53.6%
Corners, last 5	5.8	4.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.252	0.236
On-target allowed per possession	0.084	0.080
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.173	0.149
Opponents' inside-box share	67.5%	60.8%
Save rate	61.3%	78.2%
Saves, last 5	2.8	2.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.66	0.62
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	390	465
Fouls, last 5	16.4	11.2
Cards, last 5	3.2	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	0
Drawn	0
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	1
Goals, away side	4

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 28.1% · Draw 25.2% · Away 46.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Bologna v Monza

serie-a · 14:00 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	11	16
Position last season	8	—
Points this season	11	7
Goal difference this season	+0	-6
Elo rating going in	1,661	1,446
Matches on record, all seasons	579	123
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	6
Goals scored, last 5	2.0	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	2.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	1.6
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	2.4
Clean sheets, last 10	1	1
Failed to score, last 10	3	1
Wins in a row	2	0
Unbeaten run	2	0
Losses in a row	0	2
Days since last match	3	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.2	12.4
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	5.2
Shots per possession	0.252	0.289
On-target shots per possession	0.085	0.120
Inside-box shots per possession	0.160	0.183
Share of shots from inside the box	62.5%	62.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.39	1.47
Possession, last 5	39.0%	39.6%
Corners, last 5	3.0	4.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.226	0.258
On-target allowed per possession	0.075	0.099
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.148	0.173
Opponents' inside-box share	67.8%	70.9%
Save rate	65.6%	60.1%
Saves, last 5	2.6	4.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.53	1.70
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	74.0%	79.0%
Passes, last 5	344	361
Fouls, last 5	12.6	10.0
Cards, last 5	1.8	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	3
Drawn	2
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	7
Goals, away side	4

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 56.6% · Draw 24.1% · Away 19.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Bayer Leverkusen v VfB Stuttgart

bundesliga · 14:30 UK

Finished 2–4. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	4	13
Position last season	6	4
Points this season	13	6
Goal difference this season	+4	-3
Elo rating going in	1,710	1,625
Matches on record, all seasons	551	487
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	3
Goals scored, last 5	2.0	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	2.2	1.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.7	1.9
Clean sheets, last 10	2	1
Failed to score, last 10	1	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	2
Days since last match	6	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	17.0	17.0
Shots on target, last 5	4.8	5.6
Shots per possession	0.314	0.306
On-target shots per possession	0.106	0.116
Inside-box shots per possession	0.230	0.213
Share of shots from inside the box	71.7%	69.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.35	1.92
Possession, last 5	54.8%	59.6%
Corners, last 5	6.6	6.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.331	0.384
On-target allowed per possession	0.111	0.133
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.219	0.253
Opponents' inside-box share	64.2%	65.6%
Save rate	60.7%	64.6%
Saves, last 5	2.2	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.44	2.01
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	517	567
Fouls, last 5	10.8	9.2
Cards, last 5	1.6	0.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	28
Home side won	17
Drawn	8
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	61
Goals, away side	36

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 53.6% · Draw 21.8% · Away 24.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Borussia Mönchengladbach v SC Paderborn 07

bundesliga · 14:30 UK

Finished 0–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	18	11
Position last season	12	—
Points this season	3	8
Goal difference this season	-11	-3
Elo rating going in	1,502	1,428
Matches on record, all seasons	551	77
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	3.0	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.7	1.0
Goals conceded, last 10	2.5	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	2	3
Failed to score, last 10	2	5
Wins in a row	1	1
Unbeaten run	1	2
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	8	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	3.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.4	14.8
Shots on target, last 5	4.6	4.2
Shots per possession	0.304	0.313
On-target shots per possession	0.102	0.082
Inside-box shots per possession	0.205	0.195
Share of shots from inside the box	66.3%	63.9%
Expected goals, last 5	1.46	1.38
Possession, last 5	43.4%	46.0%
Corners, last 5	4.4	5.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.306	0.302
On-target allowed per possession	0.146	0.100
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.221	0.198
Opponents' inside-box share	71.8%	64.5%
Save rate	66.0%	73.2%
Saves, last 5	4.4	4.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.60	1.94
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	375	441
Fouls, last 5	14.4	9.8
Cards, last 5	3.8	0.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	4
Drawn	0
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	9
Goals, away side	2

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 48.1% · Draw 24.4% · Away 27.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

FC Augsburg v SC Freiburg

bundesliga · 14:30 UK

Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	9	3
Position last season	9	7
Points this season	9	13
Goal difference this season	+4	+7
Elo rating going in	1,559	1,607
Matches on record, all seasons	517	517
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	7
Goals scored, last 5	2.0	2.2
Goals conceded, last 5	2.4	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	2.3	2.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.9	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	1	2
Failed to score, last 10	1	0
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	1	0
Losses in a row	0	2
Days since last match	7	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	2.2	3.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.2	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	16.6	15.6
Shots on target, last 5	5.4	5.2
Shots per possession	0.366	0.274
On-target shots per possession	0.157	0.092
Inside-box shots per possession	0.261	0.171
Share of shots from inside the box	69.7%	62.6%
Expected goals, last 5	2.62	1.13
Possession, last 5	47.4%	53.2%
Corners, last 5	5.2	5.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.331	0.234
On-target allowed per possession	0.117	0.079
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.225	0.152
Opponents' inside-box share	65.4%	68.3%
Save rate	67.9%	65.6%
Saves, last 5	4.4	2.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	3.34	1.67
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	413	468
Fouls, last 5	10.2	8.6
Cards, last 5	2.0	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	28
Home side won	6
Drawn	9
Away side won	13
Goals, home side	34
Goals, away side	51

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 30.4% · Draw 25.6% · Away 44.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

FC Schalke 04 v RB Leipzig

bundesliga · 14:30 UK

Finished 0–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	14	5
Position last season	—	3
Points this season	6	12
Goal difference this season	-3	+9
Elo rating going in	1,453	1,672
Matches on record, all seasons	415	347
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	9
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	3.2
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	0.8	2.4
Goals conceded, last 10	1.9	2.0
Clean sheets, last 10	3	4
Failed to score, last 10	6	1
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	1	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	4.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.0	15.2
Shots on target, last 5	3.2	5.8
Shots per possession	0.260	0.306
On-target shots per possession	0.075	0.118
Inside-box shots per possession	0.186	0.217
Share of shots from inside the box	73.6%	69.4%
Expected goals, last 5	0.46	2.64
Possession, last 5	41.4%	50.4%
Corners, last 5	4.0	4.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.266	0.317
On-target allowed per possession	0.123	0.138
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.186	0.218
Opponents' inside-box share	68.3%	68.4%
Save rate	70.4%	67.5%
Saves, last 5	4.0	5.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.35	1.89
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	354	486
Fouls, last 5	11.4	10.2
Cards, last 5	1.2	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	12
Home side won	2
Drawn	2
Away side won	8
Goals, home side	11
Goals, away side	30

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 22.5% · Draw 24.7% · Away 52.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Werder Bremen v 1899 Hoffenheim

bundesliga · 14:30 UK

Finished 2–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	6	10
Position last season	15	5
Points this season	12	9
Goal difference this season	+1	+0
Elo rating going in	1,541	1,591
Matches on record, all seasons	519	551
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	9
Goals scored, last 5	2.2	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	1.8
Goals conceded, last 10	2.0	2.1
Clean sheets, last 10	0	2
Failed to score, last 10	2	1
Wins in a row	1	2
Unbeaten run	6	2
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	16.0	18.8
Shots on target, last 5	7.8	5.6
Shots per possession	0.305	0.326
On-target shots per possession	0.127	0.105
Inside-box shots per possession	0.185	0.203
Share of shots from inside the box	61.8%	61.2%
Expected goals, last 5	2.21	2.10
Possession, last 5	49.6%	53.4%
Corners, last 5	4.4	5.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.302	0.299
On-target allowed per possession	0.123	0.097
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.207	0.197
Opponents' inside-box share	67.9%	66.0%
Save rate	66.3%	56.9%
Saves, last 5	4.4	2.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.75	0.83
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	528	474
Fouls, last 5	9.6	13.4
Cards, last 5	1.2	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	30
Home side won	9
Drawn	9
Away side won	12
Goals, home side	47
Goals, away side	56

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 35.8% · Draw 24.2% · Away 40.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Barnsley v Oxford United

league-one · 15:00 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	23	3
Position last season	15	23
Points this season	8	22
Goal difference this season	-10	+9
Elo rating going in	1,338	1,485
Matches on record, all seasons	711	468
Recent form
Points, last 5	1	11
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	0.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	1.7
Goals conceded, last 10	2.0	0.8
Clean sheets, last 10	1	4
Failed to score, last 10	2	1
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	8
Losses in a row	4	0
Days since last match	7	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.8	14.0
Shots on target, last 5	5.8	4.2
Shots per possession	0.332	0.262
On-target shots per possession	0.103	0.094
Inside-box shots per possession	0.217	0.143
Share of shots from inside the box	63.7%	53.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.39	1.58
Possession, last 5	46.2%	47.2%
Corners, last 5	6.6	5.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.292	0.293
On-target allowed per possession	0.099	0.062
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.207	0.209
Opponents' inside-box share	67.5%	67.5%
Save rate	54.7%	70.2%
Saves, last 5	3.2	2.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.84	1.73
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	296	395
Fouls, last 5	15.4	11.6
Cards, last 5	2.6	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	4
Drawn	1
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	12
Goals, away side	6

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 35.8% · Draw 24.9% · Away 39.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Bolton v Bristol City

championship · 15:00 UK

Finished 2–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	17	14
Position last season	5	12
Points this season	14	15
Goal difference this season	-7	-3
Elo rating going in	1,487	1,499
Matches on record, all seasons	682	704
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	5
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	0.4
Goals conceded, last 5	2.2	0.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	1.0
Goals conceded, last 10	2.2	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	2	2
Failed to score, last 10	3	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	8	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	2.2	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	1.4
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.0	13.0
Shots on target, last 5	4.6	3.6
Shots per possession	0.281	0.302
On-target shots per possession	0.103	0.083
Inside-box shots per possession	0.193	0.205
Share of shots from inside the box	67.9%	66.0%
Expected goals, last 5	1.71	1.24
Possession, last 5	44.8%	45.6%
Corners, last 5	4.0	5.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.286	0.203
On-target allowed per possession	0.108	0.047
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.210	0.129
Opponents' inside-box share	74.3%	62.1%
Save rate	64.8%	62.6%
Saves, last 5	3.0	1.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.27	1.04
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	391	354
Fouls, last 5	10.4	11.8
Cards, last 5	1.6	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	8
Home side won	3
Drawn	2
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	9
Goals, away side	15

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 31.5% · Draw 27.1% · Away 41.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Bournemouth v Leeds

premier-league · 15:00 UK

Finished 2–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	13	7
Position last season	6	14
Points this season	9	11
Goal difference this season	-1	+3
Elo rating going in	1,765	1,734
Matches on record, all seasons	628	671
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	6
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	1.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	0.9
Clean sheets, last 10	2	4
Failed to score, last 10	1	3
Wins in a row	2	0
Unbeaten run	2	2
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	6	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	0.6
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	1.2
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.4	12.4
Shots on target, last 5	5.2	4.4
Shots per possession	0.277	0.246
On-target shots per possession	0.092	0.077
Inside-box shots per possession	0.174	0.164
Share of shots from inside the box	63.9%	65.9%
Expected goals, last 5	2.71	1.01
Possession, last 5	53.0%	52.0%
Corners, last 5	4.2	4.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.225	0.288
On-target allowed per possession	0.083	0.099
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.143	0.178
Opponents' inside-box share	64.6%	59.9%
Save rate	56.9%	78.4%
Saves, last 5	1.2	3.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.82	1.50
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	460	424
Fouls, last 5	13.8	13.6
Cards, last 5	2.8	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	8
Home side won	2
Drawn	2
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	17
Goals, away side	16

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 45.0% · Draw 28.0% · Away 27.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Brentford v Nottingham Forest

premier-league · 15:00 UK

Finished 2–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	6	15
Position last season	9	16
Points this season	11	6
Goal difference this season	+5	-4
Elo rating going in	1,739	1,684
Matches on record, all seasons	669	669
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	4
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.7	0.9
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	2	1
Failed to score, last 10	0	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	1	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	6	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	1.6
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	2.0
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.8	20.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	4.6
Shots per possession	0.310	0.360
On-target shots per possession	0.087	0.085
Inside-box shots per possession	0.244	0.240
Share of shots from inside the box	78.6%	67.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.36	2.08
Possession, last 5	45.8%	48.8%
Corners, last 5	3.2	5.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.306	0.250
On-target allowed per possession	0.094	0.078
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.184	0.159
Opponents' inside-box share	59.3%	63.7%
Save rate	71.0%	66.7%
Saves, last 5	3.8	2.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.77	1.36
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	373	414
Fouls, last 5	12.6	12.6
Cards, last 5	2.6	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	22
Home side won	11
Drawn	4
Away side won	7
Goals, home side	36
Goals, away side	30

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 45.2% · Draw 25.5% · Away 29.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Burnley v Portsmouth

championship · 15:00 UK

Finished 0–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	22	9
Position last season	19	18
Points this season	8	18
Goal difference this season	-8	+1
Elo rating going in	1,532	1,518
Matches on record, all seasons	630	511
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	10
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	2.0	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	1	3
Failed to score, last 10	0	3
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	4
Losses in a row	2	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.8	12.8
Shots on target, last 5	4.4	3.0
Shots per possession	0.288	0.275
On-target shots per possession	0.089	0.069
Inside-box shots per possession	0.171	0.180
Share of shots from inside the box	61.0%	62.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.60	1.19
Possession, last 5	45.4%	50.2%
Corners, last 5	4.2	4.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.319	0.213
On-target allowed per possession	0.116	0.065
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.207	0.136
Opponents' inside-box share	67.6%	63.8%
Save rate	58.5%	68.1%
Saves, last 5	3.8	1.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.64	1.11
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	416	392
Fouls, last 5	9.0	10.4
Cards, last 5	1.8	2.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	2
Drawn	1
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	7
Goals, away side	3

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 41.6% · Draw 28.5% · Away 29.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Coventry v Sunderland

premier-league · 15:00 UK

Finished 3–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	19	20
Position last season	1	7
Points this season	6	5
Goal difference this season	-9	-8
Elo rating going in	1,620	1,658
Matches on record, all seasons	645	683
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	1
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	0.6
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	2.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.6	1.6
Clean sheets, last 10	2	2
Failed to score, last 10	5	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	2	0
Days since last match	7	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.4	0.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.8	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.6	11.8
Shots on target, last 5	3.6	3.8
Shots per possession	0.309	0.263
On-target shots per possession	0.097	0.086
Inside-box shots per possession	0.198	0.173
Share of shots from inside the box	59.6%	63.4%
Expected goals, last 5	0.96	0.57
Possession, last 5	34.2%	45.8%
Corners, last 5	3.4	4.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.271	0.248
On-target allowed per possession	0.071	0.072
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.174	0.160
Opponents' inside-box share	64.6%	63.4%
Save rate	55.9%	59.1%
Saves, last 5	2.4	2.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.12	2.12
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	295	372
Fouls, last 5	9.0	11.4
Cards, last 5	1.0	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	12
Home side won	5
Drawn	6
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	21
Goals, away side	13

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 30.4% · Draw 28.6% · Away 41.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Hull City v Ipswich

premier-league · 15:00 UK

Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	10	9
Position last season	6	2
Points this season	10	10
Goal difference this season	+1	-4
Elo rating going in	1,585	1,635
Matches on record, all seasons	680	682
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	1.7
Goals conceded, last 10	0.8	1.8
Clean sheets, last 10	5	1
Failed to score, last 10	2	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	1	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	6	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.2	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	0.6	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.4	10.2
Shots on target, last 5	3.2	4.2
Shots per possession	0.326	0.259
On-target shots per possession	0.107	0.109
Inside-box shots per possession	0.193	0.166
Share of shots from inside the box	58.1%	64.0%
Expected goals, last 5	1.16	1.14
Possession, last 5	35.6%	45.8%
Corners, last 5	5.0	2.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.207	0.303
On-target allowed per possession	0.069	0.096
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.145	0.196
Opponents' inside-box share	69.5%	64.5%
Save rate	74.9%	63.9%
Saves, last 5	4.4	2.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.69	2.60
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	301	438
Fouls, last 5	11.6	12.2
Cards, last 5	2.6	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	16
Home side won	9
Drawn	3
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	26
Goals, away side	16

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 34.7% · Draw 28.3% · Away 37.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Kilmarnock v ST Johnstone

scottish-prem · 15:00 UK

Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	12	8
Position last season	10	—
Points this season	8	13
Goal difference this season	-15	-4
Elo rating going in	1,471	1,432
Matches on record, all seasons	572	572
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	6
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	2.4	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	0.8	0.9
Goals conceded, last 10	2.2	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	2	1
Failed to score, last 10	4	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	2	0
Days since last match	3	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.6	9.6
Shots on target, last 5	2.8	3.2
Shots per possession	0.265	0.216
On-target shots per possession	0.085	0.070
Inside-box shots per possession	0.204	0.149
Share of shots from inside the box	77.3%	70.9%
Expected goals, last 5	1.69	1.14
Possession, last 5	43.2%	41.8%
Corners, last 5	4.4	2.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.316	0.289
On-target allowed per possession	0.108	0.110
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.229	0.198
Opponents' inside-box share	70.6%	68.6%
Save rate	68.7%	79.3%
Saves, last 5	3.6	5.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.08	2.15
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	373	385
Fouls, last 5	12.0	10.4
Cards, last 5	1.8	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	45
Home side won	16
Drawn	8
Away side won	21
Goals, home side	50
Goals, away side	49

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 41.2% · Draw 25.9% · Away 32.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Leicester v Stevenage

league-one · 15:00 UK

Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	11	12
Position last season	21	6
Points this season	18	15
Goal difference this season	+3	+4
Elo rating going in	1,467	1,414
Matches on record, all seasons	624	291
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	6
Goals scored, last 5	2.2	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.8	1.4
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.0
Clean sheets, last 10	4	3
Failed to score, last 10	2	4
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	1	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	4	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.6	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.6	0.8
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.0	14.0
Shots on target, last 5	6.0	4.0
Shots per possession	0.238	0.278
On-target shots per possession	0.094	0.091
Inside-box shots per possession	0.167	0.204
Share of shots from inside the box	70.3%	73.4%
Expected goals, last 5	2.12	1.26
Possession, last 5	64.2%	49.2%
Corners, last 5	6.6	4.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.345	0.211
On-target allowed per possession	0.127	0.051
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.222	0.124
Opponents' inside-box share	62.8%	56.5%
Save rate	70.1%	60.6%
Saves, last 5	3.6	1.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.03	1.25
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	611	342
Fouls, last 5	13.0	11.0
Cards, last 5	1.8	1.6

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 58.3% · Draw 22.1% · Away 19.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Manchester City v Brighton

premier-league · 15:00 UK

Finished 0–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	3
Position last season	2	8
Points this season	21	16
Goal difference this season	+11	+16
Elo rating going in	1,925	1,772
Matches on record, all seasons	616	632
Recent form
Points, last 5	12	12
Goals scored, last 5	2.6	3.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	0.4
Goals scored, last 10	2.2	2.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	3	5
Failed to score, last 10	0	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	1
Days since last match	7	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	2.0	2.0
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.8	1.4
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.2	17.2
Shots on target, last 5	5.0	5.2
Shots per possession	0.236	0.298
On-target shots per possession	0.083	0.090
Inside-box shots per possession	0.168	0.185
Share of shots from inside the box	69.9%	63.6%
Expected goals, last 5	2.26	1.52
Possession, last 5	59.6%	53.6%
Corners, last 5	5.6	4.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.301	0.292
On-target allowed per possession	0.102	0.097
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.200	0.218
Opponents' inside-box share	67.7%	69.5%
Save rate	68.4%	70.3%
Saves, last 5	2.8	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.13	0.80
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	547	466
Fouls, last 5	12.6	12.4
Cards, last 5	2.0	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	18
Home side won	12
Drawn	3
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	45
Goals, away side	16

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 56.3% · Draw 21.8% · Away 21.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Mansfield Town v Notts County

league-one · 15:00 UK

Finished 0–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	9	19
Position last season	10	—
Points this season	18	11
Goal difference this season	+4	-3
Elo rating going in	1,436	1,382
Matches on record, all seasons	103	195
Recent form
Points, last 5	11	4
Goals scored, last 5	2.4	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.8	1.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	2	1
Failed to score, last 10	3	3
Wins in a row	2	0
Unbeaten run	6	2
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	17.4	10.4
Shots on target, last 5	5.2	2.6
Shots per possession	0.310	0.230
On-target shots per possession	0.095	0.074
Inside-box shots per possession	0.238	0.126
Share of shots from inside the box	75.3%	52.5%
Expected goals, last 5	2.44	0.99
Possession, last 5	50.4%	44.8%
Corners, last 5	7.2	3.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.236	0.220
On-target allowed per possession	0.077	0.070
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.138	0.147
Opponents' inside-box share	56.6%	64.1%
Save rate	64.5%	64.9%
Saves, last 5	2.2	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.85	1.36
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	368	368
Fouls, last 5	12.0	15.6
Cards, last 5	2.4	3.0

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 50.7% · Draw 25.5% · Away 23.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Middlesbrough v Charlton

championship · 15:00 UK

Finished 3–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	16
Position last season	5	20
Points this season	25	14
Goal difference this season	+10	-7
Elo rating going in	1,599	1,465
Matches on record, all seasons	704	710
Recent form
Points, last 5	11	2
Goals scored, last 5	2.6	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	2.2
Goals scored, last 10	2.4	0.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.6
Clean sheets, last 10	2	3
Failed to score, last 10	0	4
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	10	0
Losses in a row	0	2
Days since last match	8	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Scored away, last 5 there	2.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	23.0	9.8
Shots on target, last 5	8.6	3.6
Shots per possession	0.367	0.244
On-target shots per possession	0.134	0.063
Inside-box shots per possession	0.252	0.160
Share of shots from inside the box	68.8%	67.3%
Expected goals, last 5	2.65	1.58
Possession, last 5	55.8%	46.6%
Corners, last 5	6.6	3.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.283	0.303
On-target allowed per possession	0.090	0.088
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.199	0.154
Opponents' inside-box share	67.4%	49.8%
Save rate	67.3%	66.7%
Saves, last 5	2.2	3.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.80	1.82
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	501	354
Fouls, last 5	10.4	15.0
Cards, last 5	0.8	3.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	12
Home side won	8
Drawn	2
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	18
Goals, away side	8

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 75.7% · Draw 14.9% · Away 9.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Millwall v Derby

championship · 15:00 UK

Finished 4–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	13	23
Position last season	3	8
Points this season	15	7
Goal difference this season	-1	-11
Elo rating going in	1,565	1,474
Matches on record, all seasons	710	712
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	3
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	0.7
Goals conceded, last 10	2.0	1.7
Clean sheets, last 10	2	1
Failed to score, last 10	2	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	1.0
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.4	1.8
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.2	14.0
Shots on target, last 5	4.2	4.6
Shots per possession	0.311	0.244
On-target shots per possession	0.101	0.066
Inside-box shots per possession	0.248	0.153
Share of shots from inside the box	76.2%	60.7%
Expected goals, last 5	1.21	0.93
Possession, last 5	54.2%	48.2%
Corners, last 5	7.4	4.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.288	0.290
On-target allowed per possession	0.076	0.122
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.191	0.202
Opponents' inside-box share	67.0%	70.1%
Save rate	60.1%	68.9%
Saves, last 5	1.6	3.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.04	1.52
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	344	377
Fouls, last 5	12.8	12.2
Cards, last 5	2.8	2.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	22
Home side won	9
Drawn	7
Away side won	6
Goals, home side	21
Goals, away side	25

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 58.0% · Draw 23.4% · Away 18.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Milton Keynes Dons v Doncaster

league-one · 15:00 UK

Finished 6–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	14	18
Position last season	—	14
Points this season	15	12
Goal difference this season	-3	-3
Elo rating going in	1,389	1,354
Matches on record, all seasons	511	508
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	6
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.6	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	3	3
Failed to score, last 10	3	2
Wins in a row	2	0
Unbeaten run	2	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	4	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.6	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	1.6
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.0	13.0
Shots on target, last 5	3.8	2.6
Shots per possession	0.290	0.304
On-target shots per possession	0.071	0.080
Inside-box shots per possession	0.199	0.195
Share of shots from inside the box	67.5%	63.0%
Expected goals, last 5	1.53	0.78
Possession, last 5	49.0%	40.8%
Corners, last 5	5.4	5.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.268	0.275
On-target allowed per possession	0.087	0.104
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.175	0.207
Opponents' inside-box share	65.3%	74.7%
Save rate	66.2%	73.4%
Saves, last 5	2.6	5.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.48	1.94
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	333	340
Fouls, last 5	13.0	9.4
Cards, last 5	1.8	2.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	12
Home side won	3
Drawn	4
Away side won	5
Goals, home side	12
Goals, away side	10

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 47.5% · Draw 26.4% · Away 26.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Motherwell v ST Mirren

scottish-prem · 15:00 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	10	7
Position last season	4	11
Points this season	9	14
Goal difference this season	-7	-7
Elo rating going in	1,541	1,477
Matches on record, all seasons	608	496
Recent form
Points, last 5	1	4
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	2.2	2.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	1.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.9	1.9
Clean sheets, last 10	2	2
Failed to score, last 10	5	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	1	2
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	3	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.4	10.2
Shots on target, last 5	5.4	3.2
Shots per possession	0.276	0.260
On-target shots per possession	0.096	0.079
Inside-box shots per possession	0.194	0.165
Share of shots from inside the box	70.0%	64.1%
Expected goals, last 5	1.60	1.26
Possession, last 5	50.0%	53.6%
Corners, last 5	5.6	3.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.349	0.319
On-target allowed per possession	0.122	0.113
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.253	0.226
Opponents' inside-box share	68.6%	70.8%
Save rate	65.4%	63.9%
Saves, last 5	4.8	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.76	2.19
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	464	448
Fouls, last 5	10.0	15.0
Cards, last 5	1.4	3.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	43
Home side won	19
Drawn	15
Away side won	9
Goals, home side	63
Goals, away side	36

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 51.5% · Draw 24.3% · Away 24.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Peterborough v Luton

league-one · 15:00 UK

Finished 0–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	21	8
Position last season	18	7
Points this season	10	20
Goal difference this season	-10	+4
Elo rating going in	1,325	1,474
Matches on record, all seasons	697	377
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	12
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	2.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	0.9	1.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.8	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	1	1
Failed to score, last 10	4	1
Wins in a row	0	3
Unbeaten run	1	3
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.0	18.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	6.6
Shots per possession	0.291	0.301
On-target shots per possession	0.070	0.111
Inside-box shots per possession	0.191	0.217
Share of shots from inside the box	64.7%	71.8%
Expected goals, last 5	1.64	2.17
Possession, last 5	51.2%	49.2%
Corners, last 5	7.2	6.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.316	0.258
On-target allowed per possession	0.125	0.083
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.253	0.191
Opponents' inside-box share	79.9%	73.9%
Save rate	64.2%	63.2%
Saves, last 5	3.4	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.68	1.41
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	427	382
Fouls, last 5	10.6	12.6
Cards, last 5	1.6	1.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	1
Drawn	1
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	5
Goals, away side	13

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 28.1% · Draw 23.3% · Away 48.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Southampton v QPR

championship · 15:00 UK

Finished 4–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	2	7
Position last season	4	15
Points this season	24	20
Goal difference this season	+12	+8
Elo rating going in	1,639	1,510
Matches on record, all seasons	611	681
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	8
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	2.4
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	2.0	1.7
Goals conceded, last 10	0.9	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	3	2
Failed to score, last 10	1	3
Wins in a row	1	1
Unbeaten run	4	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.2	14.6
Shots on target, last 5	4.6	5.2
Shots per possession	0.278	0.282
On-target shots per possession	0.091	0.099
Inside-box shots per possession	0.208	0.168
Share of shots from inside the box	75.1%	61.9%
Expected goals, last 5	1.76	1.82
Possession, last 5	53.6%	46.2%
Corners, last 5	3.8	4.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.344	0.248
On-target allowed per possession	0.103	0.073
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.239	0.163
Opponents' inside-box share	67.8%	65.1%
Save rate	78.9%	70.3%
Saves, last 5	4.6	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.23	1.04
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	504	418
Fouls, last 5	8.4	8.2
Cards, last 5	2.8	2.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	8
Home side won	7
Drawn	0
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	17
Goals, away side	6

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 49.0% · Draw 25.2% · Away 25.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Stockport County v AFC Wimbledon

league-one · 15:00 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	2	16
Position last season	3	19
Points this season	23	13
Goal difference this season	+11	-11
Elo rating going in	1,487	1,307
Matches on record, all seasons	110	323
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	2
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	0.6
Goals conceded, last 5	0.6	2.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	0.8
Goals conceded, last 10	0.9	1.6
Clean sheets, last 10	5	4
Failed to score, last 10	3	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	4	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	17.8	11.0
Shots on target, last 5	4.6	2.4
Shots per possession	0.281	0.262
On-target shots per possession	0.077	0.059
Inside-box shots per possession	0.219	0.166
Share of shots from inside the box	77.5%	63.3%
Expected goals, last 5	2.39	0.86
Possession, last 5	67.2%	42.2%
Corners, last 5	7.8	6.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.215	0.283
On-target allowed per possession	0.091	0.109
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.140	0.196
Opponents' inside-box share	65.5%	70.8%
Save rate	70.9%	73.0%
Saves, last 5	3.0	4.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.89	1.99
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	611	324
Fouls, last 5	9.0	11.2
Cards, last 5	1.2	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	2
Drawn	0
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	5
Goals, away side	0

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 75.5% · Draw 15.2% · Away 9.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Swansea v Blackburn

championship · 15:00 UK

Finished 4–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	3	10
Position last season	11	22
Points this season	23	18
Goal difference this season	+3	+3
Elo rating going in	1,568	1,504
Matches on record, all seasons	651	732
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	10
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	4	3
Failed to score, last 10	3	1
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	2	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.0	10.8
Shots on target, last 5	3.4	4.2
Shots per possession	0.231	0.265
On-target shots per possession	0.085	0.086
Inside-box shots per possession	0.129	0.170
Share of shots from inside the box	53.9%	65.3%
Expected goals, last 5	1.36	1.11
Possession, last 5	53.2%	42.4%
Corners, last 5	4.0	6.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.257	0.322
On-target allowed per possession	0.082	0.080
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.187	0.226
Opponents' inside-box share	71.9%	69.2%
Save rate	63.5%	63.1%
Saves, last 5	2.6	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.57	2.14
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	530	343
Fouls, last 5	11.4	10.4
Cards, last 5	1.4	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	18
Home side won	9
Drawn	4
Away side won	5
Goals, home side	29
Goals, away side	21

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 54.9% · Draw 24.5% · Away 20.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

West Ham v West Brom

championship · 15:00 UK

Finished 1–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	4	6
Position last season	18	19
Points this season	22	21
Goal difference this season	+17	+3
Elo rating going in	1,667	1,523
Matches on record, all seasons	631	680
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	7
Goals scored, last 5	2.4	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	2.9	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.1	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	4	2
Failed to score, last 10	0	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	3
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	3.2	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.2	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	1.0
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	1.2
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	19.2	15.0
Shots on target, last 5	7.6	3.2
Shots per possession	0.307	0.213
On-target shots per possession	0.122	0.058
Inside-box shots per possession	0.204	0.152
Share of shots from inside the box	67.1%	70.2%
Expected goals, last 5	1.92	1.99
Possession, last 5	60.4%	60.6%
Corners, last 5	8.2	7.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.275	0.295
On-target allowed per possession	0.078	0.097
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.186	0.226
Opponents' inside-box share	63.1%	75.6%
Save rate	63.9%	73.1%
Saves, last 5	2.0	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.08	1.43
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	476	523
Fouls, last 5	13.0	9.6
Cards, last 5	2.4	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	16
Home side won	6
Drawn	8
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	29
Goals, away side	22

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 58.9% · Draw 22.5% · Away 18.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Wigan v Bromley

league-one · 15:00 UK

Finished 3–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	24	22
Position last season	16	—
Points this season	7	9
Goal difference this season	-12	-19
Elo rating going in	1,327	1,351
Matches on record, all seasons	726	12
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	1
Goals scored, last 5	0.6	0.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	2.4
Goals scored, last 10	0.6	0.9
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	2.9
Clean sheets, last 10	2	0
Failed to score, last 10	6	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	3	1
Days since last match	4	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	0.4	1.2
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	3.2
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	8.2	7.4
Shots on target, last 5	2.2	3.0
Shots per possession	0.224	0.239
On-target shots per possession	0.055	0.100
Inside-box shots per possession	0.141	0.128
Share of shots from inside the box	61.1%	55.7%
Expected goals, last 5	0.72	0.63
Possession, last 5	48.0%	32.4%
Corners, last 5	4.0	3.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.314	0.285
On-target allowed per possession	0.094	0.096
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.221	0.201
Opponents' inside-box share	69.6%	70.4%
Save rate	69.7%	62.4%
Saves, last 5	4.2	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.43	2.00
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	420	240
Fouls, last 5	12.2	12.6
Cards, last 5	3.6	2.2

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 50.7% · Draw 25.9% · Away 23.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Wolves v Cardiff

championship · 15:00 UK

Finished 3–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	5	16
Position last season	20	2
Points this season	21	14
Goal difference this season	+4	+2
Elo rating going in	1,590	1,500
Matches on record, all seasons	668	690
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	10
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	2.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	1.6
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	3	1
Failed to score, last 10	1	2
Wins in a row	1	1
Unbeaten run	3	3
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.6	2.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.0	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	18.0	16.4
Shots on target, last 5	3.6	5.2
Shots per possession	0.303	0.309
On-target shots per possession	0.082	0.107
Inside-box shots per possession	0.203	0.217
Share of shots from inside the box	66.5%	71.4%
Expected goals, last 5	1.54	2.03
Possession, last 5	56.8%	54.6%
Corners, last 5	8.2	5.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.215	0.317
On-target allowed per possession	0.070	0.126
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.130	0.223
Opponents' inside-box share	58.5%	70.5%
Save rate	70.8%	68.2%
Saves, last 5	2.2	4.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.91	1.75
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	483	451
Fouls, last 5	11.0	9.6
Cards, last 5	2.8	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	12
Home side won	5
Drawn	0
Away side won	7
Goals, home side	14
Goals, away side	17

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 56.6% · Draw 22.5% · Away 20.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Wycombe v Burton Albion

league-one · 15:00 UK

Finished 2–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	14	11
Position last season	11	17
Points this season	15	17
Goal difference this season	-4	-1
Elo rating going in	1,413	1,370
Matches on record, all seasons	422	508
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	5
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.7	1.4
Goals conceded, last 10	2.1	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	2	2
Failed to score, last 10	0	3
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	3	3
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.8	14.6
Shots on target, last 5	4.6	4.6
Shots per possession	0.248	0.265
On-target shots per possession	0.094	0.084
Inside-box shots per possession	0.183	0.160
Share of shots from inside the box	74.6%	56.9%
Expected goals, last 5	1.61	1.09
Possession, last 5	56.4%	51.6%
Corners, last 5	6.4	6.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.282	0.277
On-target allowed per possession	0.092	0.078
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.165	0.205
Opponents' inside-box share	59.4%	73.4%
Save rate	61.1%	57.8%
Saves, last 5	2.6	2.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.45	1.36
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	430	416
Fouls, last 5	12.0	11.2
Cards, last 5	1.2	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	13
Home side won	8
Drawn	3
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	22
Goals, away side	11

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 61.6% · Draw 21.4% · Away 17.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Eibar v Almeria

laliga-2 · 15:15 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	3	1
Position last season	8	3
Points this season	22	25
Goal difference this season	+7	+13
Elo rating going in	1,532	1,557
Matches on record, all seasons	493	547
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	13
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	2.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.9	1.9
Goals conceded, last 10	1.0	0.9
Clean sheets, last 10	4	4
Failed to score, last 10	1	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	8
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.2	13.6
Shots on target, last 5	5.6	5.2
Shots per possession	0.278	0.222
On-target shots per possession	0.122	0.081
Inside-box shots per possession	0.181	0.151
Share of shots from inside the box	63.9%	66.3%
Expected goals, last 5	1.91	1.29
Possession, last 5	50.2%	53.2%
Corners, last 5	3.6	4.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.333	0.294
On-target allowed per possession	0.109	0.080
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.161	0.189
Opponents' inside-box share	47.9%	66.6%
Save rate	81.1%	77.4%
Saves, last 5	5.2	4.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.06	1.14
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	422	484
Fouls, last 5	9.4	14.0
Cards, last 5	1.4	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	8
Home side won	5
Drawn	1
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	13
Goals, away side	9

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 35.6% · Draw 26.8% · Away 37.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Rayo Vallecano v Celta Vigo

la-liga · 15:15 UK

Finished 3–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	16	7
Position last season	8	6
Points this season	9	12
Goal difference this season	-8	+3
Elo rating going in	1,613	1,626
Matches on record, all seasons	599	542
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	9
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	0.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	1.0
Goals conceded, last 10	2.1	0.7
Clean sheets, last 10	0	5
Failed to score, last 10	1	5
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	7
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	7	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.6	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.4	0.8
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	18.4	11.0
Shots on target, last 5	4.2	4.2
Shots per possession	0.289	0.201
On-target shots per possession	0.101	0.069
Inside-box shots per possession	0.147	0.105
Share of shots from inside the box	53.4%	49.8%
Expected goals, last 5	1.94	0.69
Possession, last 5	57.2%	42.6%
Corners, last 5	4.6	1.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.332	0.273
On-target allowed per possession	0.128	0.083
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.199	0.158
Opponents' inside-box share	60.2%	56.9%
Save rate	66.7%	76.5%
Saves, last 5	4.2	3.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.62	1.03
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	483	441
Fouls, last 5	12.0	13.4
Cards, last 5	2.8	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	20
Home side won	9
Drawn	6
Away side won	5
Goals, home side	26
Goals, away side	26

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 38.2% · Draw 30.3% · Away 31.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Feyenoord v Fortuna Sittard

eredivisie · 15:30 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	5
Position last season	2	11
Points this season	24	18
Goal difference this season	+21	+0
Elo rating going in	1,766	1,543
Matches on record, all seasons	549	274
Recent form
Points, last 5	13	8
Goals scored, last 5	3.8	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	3.2	1.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.1	1.7
Clean sheets, last 10	4	2
Failed to score, last 10	0	1
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	19	4
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	6	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Scored away, last 5 there	4.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	19.8	10.2
Shots on target, last 5	9.4	4.0
Shots per possession	0.382	0.265
On-target shots per possession	0.157	0.131
Inside-box shots per possession	0.270	0.153
Share of shots from inside the box	70.4%	58.6%
Expected goals, last 5	2.43	0.71
Possession, last 5	51.6%	40.0%
Corners, last 5	6.4	3.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.255	0.282
On-target allowed per possession	0.079	0.089
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.147	0.212
Opponents' inside-box share	55.2%	74.7%
Save rate	71.4%	71.4%
Saves, last 5	3.6	4.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.47	1.55
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	494	367
Fouls, last 5	9.4	9.6
Cards, last 5	2.0	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	16
Home side won	11
Drawn	3
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	34
Goals, away side	15

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 82.4% · Draw 11.0% · Away 6.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Moreirense v Estrela

primeira-liga · 15:30 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	10	10
Position last season	7	15
Points this season	11	10
Goal difference this season	-5	-3
Elo rating going in	1,568	1,503
Matches on record, all seasons	415	113
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	4
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	1.6
Goals conceded, last 10	1.6	1.9
Clean sheets, last 10	2	0
Failed to score, last 10	4	3
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	1	0
Losses in a row	0	3
Days since last match	6	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.2	14.8
Shots on target, last 5	3.0	4.2
Shots per possession	0.231	0.255
On-target shots per possession	0.077	0.095
Inside-box shots per possession	0.135	0.177
Share of shots from inside the box	57.5%	69.2%
Expected goals, last 5	1.26	1.60
Possession, last 5	35.8%	56.8%
Corners, last 5	2.6	5.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.258	0.228
On-target allowed per possession	0.077	0.096
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.177	0.133
Opponents' inside-box share	67.5%	58.7%
Save rate	62.8%	61.6%
Saves, last 5	3.2	2.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.80	0.80
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	323	474
Fouls, last 5	13.8	10.8
Cards, last 5	1.8	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	2
Drawn	3
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	8
Goals, away side	7

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 33.1% · Draw 29.5% · Away 37.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Fenerbahçe v Göztepe

super-lig · 16:00 UK

Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	5	10
Position last season	2	6
Points this season	16	12
Goal difference this season	+15	+3
Elo rating going in	1,835	1,637
Matches on record, all seasons	543	259
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	11
Goals scored, last 5	3.0	2.4
Goals conceded, last 5	0.4	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	2.6	1.9
Goals conceded, last 10	1.1	1.9
Clean sheets, last 10	5	2
Failed to score, last 10	1	2
Wins in a row	0	3
Unbeaten run	0	5
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	5	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	16.2	16.2
Shots on target, last 5	7.0	6.2
Shots per possession	0.309	0.428
On-target shots per possession	0.128	0.146
Inside-box shots per possession	0.225	0.313
Share of shots from inside the box	70.7%	72.7%
Expected goals, last 5	2.52	2.09
Possession, last 5	50.2%	39.4%
Corners, last 5	5.2	3.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.302	0.253
On-target allowed per possession	0.108	0.086
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.144	0.168
Opponents' inside-box share	47.3%	63.5%
Save rate	72.5%	64.8%
Saves, last 5	5.2	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.39	1.21
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	83.0%	71.6%
Passes, last 5	427	288
Fouls, last 5	13.2	17.6
Cards, last 5	1.4	2.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	14
Home side won	6
Drawn	6
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	22
Goals, away side	16

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 70.6% · Draw 17.1% · Away 12.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Udinese v AS Roma

serie-a · 17:00 UK

Finished 2–5. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	17	3
Position last season	10	3
Points this season	5	21
Goal difference this season	-9	+15
Elo rating going in	1,547	1,783
Matches on record, all seasons	617	617
Recent form
Points, last 5	1	9
Goals scored, last 5	0.2	2.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	0.9	2.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.9	0.8
Clean sheets, last 10	1	6
Failed to score, last 10	5	1
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	1	16
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	3	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	17.4	17.2
Shots on target, last 5	3.6	4.6
Shots per possession	0.286	0.327
On-target shots per possession	0.090	0.103
Inside-box shots per possession	0.175	0.225
Share of shots from inside the box	62.0%	68.9%
Expected goals, last 5	1.07	1.84
Possession, last 5	58.4%	54.0%
Corners, last 5	6.2	5.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.303	0.270
On-target allowed per possession	0.123	0.101
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.204	0.163
Opponents' inside-box share	64.6%	59.3%
Save rate	68.7%	73.7%
Saves, last 5	3.6	3.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.41	1.91
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	91.0%	84.0%
Passes, last 5	527	519
Fouls, last 5	10.8	10.2
Cards, last 5	1.4	2.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	32
Home side won	6
Drawn	2
Away side won	24
Goals, home side	26
Goals, away side	58

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 17.2% · Draw 21.1% · Away 61.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Bayern München v Borussia Dortmund

bundesliga · 17:30 UK

Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	1
Position last season	1	2
Points this season	17	17
Goal difference this season	+19	+8
Elo rating going in	1,867	1,747
Matches on record, all seasons	551	551
Recent form
Points, last 5	13	11
Goals scored, last 5	4.0	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	0.4
Goals scored, last 10	3.4	1.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.0	0.7
Clean sheets, last 10	3	6
Failed to score, last 10	1	2
Wins in a row	2	1
Unbeaten run	22	9
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	6	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	25.4	15.2
Shots on target, last 5	11.4	5.2
Shots per possession	0.328	0.262
On-target shots per possession	0.142	0.098
Inside-box shots per possession	0.189	0.194
Share of shots from inside the box	57.7%	75.3%
Expected goals, last 5	3.85	1.83
Possession, last 5	65.6%	58.6%
Corners, last 5	8.8	7.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.317	0.239
On-target allowed per possession	0.104	0.070
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.225	0.136
Opponents' inside-box share	69.5%	56.2%
Save rate	71.1%	74.4%
Saves, last 5	2.4	2.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.48	1.00
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	661	557
Fouls, last 5	10.4	11.0
Cards, last 5	0.6	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	32
Home side won	18
Drawn	6
Away side won	8
Goals, home side	70
Goals, away side	39

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 71.5% · Draw 17.0% · Away 11.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Celta de Vigo II v Cordoba

laliga-2 · 17:30 UK

Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	16	11
Position last season	—	10
Points this season	12	15
Goal difference this season	-5	-3
Elo rating going in	1,439	1,452
Matches on record, all seasons	11	259
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	9
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	2.2	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	2.1	1.7
Clean sheets, last 10	1	2
Failed to score, last 10	2	1
Wins in a row	0	2
Unbeaten run	0	2
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.6	17.4
Shots on target, last 5	4.8	6.0
Shots per possession	0.242	0.283
On-target shots per possession	0.102	0.086
Inside-box shots per possession	0.148	0.194
Share of shots from inside the box	60.4%	68.3%
Expected goals, last 5	1.24	2.03
Possession, last 5	47.0%	59.2%
Corners, last 5	3.2	7.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.295	0.290
On-target allowed per possession	0.108	0.100
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.188	0.199
Opponents' inside-box share	64.1%	67.1%
Save rate	64.4%	59.2%
Saves, last 5	3.0	2.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.87	1.78
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	417	446
Fouls, last 5	12.6	16.0
Cards, last 5	3.0	3.4

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 26.1% · Draw 24.5% · Away 49.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Real Betis v Malaga

la-liga · 17:30 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	4	20
Position last season	5	4
Points this season	20	5
Goal difference this season	+2	-12
Elo rating going in	1,718	1,518
Matches on record, all seasons	542	614
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	2
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	2.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	0.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.9
Clean sheets, last 10	5	1
Failed to score, last 10	1	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	1	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	6	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	0.4
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	1.8
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.8	11.0
Shots on target, last 5	5.2	4.2
Shots per possession	0.322	0.221
On-target shots per possession	0.124	0.060
Inside-box shots per possession	0.191	0.131
Share of shots from inside the box	56.0%	61.8%
Expected goals, last 5	1.81	0.85
Possession, last 5	54.2%	46.4%
Corners, last 5	4.6	5.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.324	0.300
On-target allowed per possession	0.123	0.112
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.212	0.178
Opponents' inside-box share	63.7%	59.5%
Save rate	70.8%	65.8%
Saves, last 5	4.0	3.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.99	1.72
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	544	439
Fouls, last 5	11.0	11.8
Cards, last 5	1.8	2.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	12
Home side won	7
Drawn	1
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	16
Goals, away side	12

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 72.8% · Draw 16.3% · Away 10.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Tottenham v Crystal Palace

premier-league · 17:30 UK

Finished 2–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	12	17
Position last season	17	15
Points this season	9	7
Goal difference this season	-2	-10
Elo rating going in	1,658	1,678
Matches on record, all seasons	616	597
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	4
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	2.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.0	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	2.3
Clean sheets, last 10	4	1
Failed to score, last 10	4	4
Wins in a row	2	0
Unbeaten run	3	0
Losses in a row	0	2
Days since last match	7	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.4
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.4	11.6
Shots on target, last 5	4.2	4.0
Shots per possession	0.241	0.261
On-target shots per possession	0.060	0.087
Inside-box shots per possession	0.155	0.179
Share of shots from inside the box	64.0%	70.5%
Expected goals, last 5	1.13	1.66
Possession, last 5	63.0%	46.6%
Corners, last 5	6.0	5.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.316	0.295
On-target allowed per possession	0.089	0.096
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.220	0.208
Opponents' inside-box share	68.6%	70.4%
Save rate	64.9%	60.9%
Saves, last 5	2.6	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.74	2.01
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	582	394
Fouls, last 5	13.6	10.4
Cards, last 5	1.8	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	26
Home side won	18
Drawn	3
Away side won	5
Goals, home side	40
Goals, away side	17

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 59.8% · Draw 21.7% · Away 18.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Heerenveen v NEC Nijmegen

eredivisie · 17:45 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	6	12
Position last season	8	3
Points this season	15	11
Goal difference this season	+5	-1
Elo rating going in	1,580	1,591
Matches on record, all seasons	564	391
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	4
Goals scored, last 5	2.2	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.8	1.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.8
Clean sheets, last 10	4	0
Failed to score, last 10	3	1
Wins in a row	2	0
Unbeaten run	2	4
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Scored away, last 5 there	2.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	17.4	16.2
Shots on target, last 5	6.4	4.8
Shots per possession	0.283	0.266
On-target shots per possession	0.113	0.079
Inside-box shots per possession	0.182	0.173
Share of shots from inside the box	64.9%	64.2%
Expected goals, last 5	2.14	2.02
Possession, last 5	52.0%	56.2%
Corners, last 5	5.2	7.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.292	0.287
On-target allowed per possession	0.070	0.109
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.187	0.203
Opponents' inside-box share	62.4%	72.4%
Save rate	67.9%	59.2%
Saves, last 5	1.6	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.76	1.27
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	468	440
Fouls, last 5	9.6	11.8
Cards, last 5	0.8	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	22
Home side won	5
Drawn	9
Away side won	8
Goals, home side	27
Goals, away side	34

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 45.9% · Draw 24.2% · Away 29.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

PSV Eindhoven v Willem II

eredivisie · 17:45 UK

Finished 7–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	2	18
Position last season	1	—
Points this season	20	2
Goal difference this season	+15	-22
Elo rating going in	1,829	1,363
Matches on record, all seasons	546	382
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	0
Goals scored, last 5	2.0	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	3.6
Goals scored, last 10	2.8	1.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	3.2
Clean sheets, last 10	1	0
Failed to score, last 10	0	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	1	0
Losses in a row	0	5
Days since last match	6	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	2.8	0.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.0	3.2
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	17.6	11.6
Shots on target, last 5	5.2	3.0
Shots per possession	0.324	0.286
On-target shots per possession	0.116	0.068
Inside-box shots per possession	0.227	0.194
Share of shots from inside the box	71.2%	68.4%
Expected goals, last 5	1.55	0.99
Possession, last 5	58.0%	44.2%
Corners, last 5	5.2	5.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.281	0.350
On-target allowed per possession	0.131	0.132
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.200	0.247
Opponents' inside-box share	74.7%	70.0%
Save rate	66.2%	60.1%
Saves, last 5	4.0	4.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.41	2.26
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	539	378
Fouls, last 5	11.4	10.8
Cards, last 5	1.8	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	22
Home side won	16
Drawn	3
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	56
Goals, away side	23

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 89.3% · Draw 6.2% · Away 4.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

AC Milan v Inter

serie-a · 19:45 UK

Finished 3–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	5	1
Position last season	5	1
Points this season	18	25
Goal difference this season	+7	+15
Elo rating going in	1,731	1,879
Matches on record, all seasons	617	617
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	13
Goals scored, last 5	2.2	2.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.9	2.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	3	3
Failed to score, last 10	0	0
Wins in a row	0	4
Unbeaten run	0	19
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	3	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	2.2	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.6	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	2.2
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	1.2
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.8	20.2
Shots on target, last 5	5.2	6.4
Shots per possession	0.220	0.338
On-target shots per possession	0.077	0.111
Inside-box shots per possession	0.172	0.245
Share of shots from inside the box	74.1%	72.6%
Expected goals, last 5	2.22	2.68
Possession, last 5	62.0%	60.8%
Corners, last 5	3.0	4.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.269	0.282
On-target allowed per possession	0.110	0.092
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.159	0.180
Opponents' inside-box share	60.8%	63.8%
Save rate	73.4%	67.9%
Saves, last 5	3.0	2.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.17	1.04
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	91.0%	86.0%
Passes, last 5	642	608
Fouls, last 5	9.2	10.6
Cards, last 5	1.4	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	32
Home side won	10
Drawn	8
Away side won	14
Goals, home side	37
Goals, away side	45

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 27.0% · Draw 26.1% · Away 46.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Estac Troyes v Le Mans

ligue-1 · 19:45 UK

Finished 2–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	17	15
Position last season	—	—
Points this season	5	7
Goal difference this season	-11	-5
Elo rating going in	1,393	1,573
Matches on record, all seasons	198	8
Recent form
Points, last 5	1	5
Goals scored, last 5	0.2	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	0.7	—
Goals conceded, last 10	1.9	—
Clean sheets, last 10	2	0
Failed to score, last 10	5	1
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	1	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	6	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	0.6	1.2
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	2.0
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.4	11.4
Shots on target, last 5	2.4	3.6
Shots per possession	0.307	0.253
On-target shots per possession	0.071	0.090
Inside-box shots per possession	0.202	0.160
Share of shots from inside the box	64.2%	61.7%
Expected goals, last 5	0.94	1.27
Possession, last 5	38.2%	45.0%
Corners, last 5	6.0	2.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.210	0.258
On-target allowed per possession	0.077	0.091
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.149	0.189
Opponents' inside-box share	72.8%	72.4%
Save rate	62.2%	65.0%
Saves, last 5	1.8	3.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.23	2.49
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	343	424
Fouls, last 5	15.2	15.2
Cards, last 5	2.0	2.8

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 41.7% · Draw 27.5% · Away 30.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Ajax v AZ Alkmaar

eredivisie · 20:00 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	2	5
Position last season	5	7
Points this season	21	20
Goal difference this season	+16	+8
Elo rating going in	1,712	1,650
Matches on record, all seasons	547	559
Recent form
Points, last 5	11	5
Goals scored, last 5	3.0	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	2.9	2.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	2	3
Failed to score, last 10	0	2
Wins in a row	2	0
Unbeaten run	6	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	6	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	3.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	23.0	14.2
Shots on target, last 5	8.0	4.8
Shots per possession	0.353	0.288
On-target shots per possession	0.127	0.110
Inside-box shots per possession	0.257	0.193
Share of shots from inside the box	72.0%	71.0%
Expected goals, last 5	2.11	1.29
Possession, last 5	62.8%	60.2%
Corners, last 5	6.8	6.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.257	0.233
On-target allowed per possession	0.105	0.078
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.182	0.158
Opponents' inside-box share	70.9%	67.6%
Save rate	68.3%	64.8%
Saves, last 5	2.0	2.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.44	1.94
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	626	551
Fouls, last 5	8.8	13.8
Cards, last 5	1.4	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	32
Home side won	12
Drawn	8
Away side won	12
Goals, home side	58
Goals, away side	40

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 57.6% · Draw 20.8% · Away 21.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Albacete v Sabadell

laliga-2 · 20:00 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	22	10
Position last season	11	—
Points this season	4	16
Goal difference this season	-14	+2
Elo rating going in	1,410	1,459
Matches on record, all seasons	351	52
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	8
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	2.4	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	0.7	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	2.0	0.9
Clean sheets, last 10	1	3
Failed to score, last 10	4	4
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	1	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	6	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.0	2.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.6	0.8
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.6	11.6
Shots on target, last 5	3.8	3.6
Shots per possession	0.277	0.306
On-target shots per possession	0.081	0.087
Inside-box shots per possession	0.189	0.203
Share of shots from inside the box	64.6%	67.1%
Expected goals, last 5	0.75	0.95
Possession, last 5	44.8%	45.8%
Corners, last 5	6.2	4.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.261	0.205
On-target allowed per possession	0.097	0.068
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.187	0.111
Opponents' inside-box share	72.2%	54.8%
Save rate	62.8%	72.1%
Saves, last 5	2.2	2.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.57	1.29
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	371	320
Fouls, last 5	14.0	18.4
Cards, last 5	3.2	3.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	1
Drawn	1
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	3
Goals, away side	0

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 40.6% · Draw 31.6% · Away 27.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Aston Villa v Fulham

premier-league · 20:00 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	6	12
Position last season	4	11
Points this season	11	8
Goal difference this season	-3	-2
Elo rating going in	1,791	1,695
Matches on record, all seasons	646	672
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	8
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	0.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	2	4
Failed to score, last 10	3	2
Wins in a row	2	2
Unbeaten run	4	2
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.8	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.6	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	0.6
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	0.8
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.0	13.0
Shots on target, last 5	4.6	4.8
Shots per possession	0.259	0.261
On-target shots per possession	0.083	0.085
Inside-box shots per possession	0.171	0.178
Share of shots from inside the box	66.1%	68.2%
Expected goals, last 5	1.37	1.32
Possession, last 5	45.8%	55.8%
Corners, last 5	3.6	6.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.306	0.307
On-target allowed per possession	0.089	0.084
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.196	0.191
Opponents' inside-box share	66.2%	60.6%
Save rate	70.7%	69.1%
Saves, last 5	4.0	2.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.40	0.66
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	381	556
Fouls, last 5	12.6	10.2
Cards, last 5	2.4	2.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	23
Home side won	11
Drawn	4
Away side won	8
Goals, home side	29
Goals, away side	25

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 47.4% · Draw 26.3% · Away 26.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Barcelona v Alaves

la-liga · 20:00 UK

Finished 6–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	7
Position last season	1	14
Points this season	27	12
Goal difference this season	+29	+3
Elo rating going in	1,895	1,574
Matches on record, all seasons	618	398
Recent form
Points, last 5	12	2
Goals scored, last 5	3.8	0.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	4.0	1.4
Goals conceded, last 10	1.1	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	4	3
Failed to score, last 10	0	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	6	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	3.6	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.2	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	22.6	12.6
Shots on target, last 5	8.0	3.8
Shots per possession	0.299	0.289
On-target shots per possession	0.118	0.099
Inside-box shots per possession	0.207	0.176
Share of shots from inside the box	69.9%	56.0%
Expected goals, last 5	2.13	1.24
Possession, last 5	70.6%	44.2%
Corners, last 5	8.2	2.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.237	0.203
On-target allowed per possession	0.111	0.074
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.149	0.121
Opponents' inside-box share	64.0%	61.7%
Save rate	63.5%	72.1%
Saves, last 5	1.8	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.14	1.18
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	708	375
Fouls, last 5	11.2	12.4
Cards, last 5	2.0	1.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	18
Home side won	14
Drawn	2
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	45
Goals, away side	11

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 86.7% · Draw 8.5% · Away 4.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Cambuur v GO Ahead Eagles

eredivisie · 20:00 UK

Finished 4–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	10	8
Position last season	—	12
Points this season	12	14
Goal difference this season	-3	+0
Elo rating going in	1,397	1,554
Matches on record, all seasons	182	284
Recent form
Points, last 5	11	6
Goals scored, last 5	2.6	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	2.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.9	2.3
Goals conceded, last 10	2.2	2.3
Clean sheets, last 10	2	0
Failed to score, last 10	1	0
Wins in a row	1	1
Unbeaten run	6	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	2.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.4	17.8
Shots on target, last 5	6.2	6.2
Shots per possession	0.279	0.281
On-target shots per possession	0.112	0.114
Inside-box shots per possession	0.193	0.185
Share of shots from inside the box	70.8%	65.5%
Expected goals, last 5	1.45	1.74
Possession, last 5	42.4%	56.4%
Corners, last 5	3.8	7.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.277	0.374
On-target allowed per possession	0.103	0.115
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.195	0.234
Opponents' inside-box share	71.9%	60.6%
Save rate	63.1%	57.3%
Saves, last 5	3.0	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.23	1.63
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	327	503
Fouls, last 5	13.2	8.0
Cards, last 5	2.0	0.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	8
Home side won	5
Drawn	2
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	14
Goals, away side	7

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 33.7% · Draw 24.7% · Away 41.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

FC Porto v Estoril

primeira-liga · 20:30 UK

Finished 4–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	18
Position last season	1	10
Points this season	27	2
Goal difference this season	+17	-10
Elo rating going in	1,909	1,502
Matches on record, all seasons	537	375
Recent form
Points, last 5	15	1
Goals scored, last 5	2.4	0.6
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	2.2	0.6
Goals conceded, last 10	0.4	1.8
Clean sheets, last 10	6	1
Failed to score, last 10	0	4
Wins in a row	10	0
Unbeaten run	10	0
Losses in a row	0	4
Days since last match	7	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	2.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	18.2	17.0
Shots on target, last 5	6.6	6.2
Shots per possession	0.285	0.296
On-target shots per possession	0.116	0.109
Inside-box shots per possession	0.191	0.192
Share of shots from inside the box	67.7%	64.3%
Expected goals, last 5	1.66	1.75
Possession, last 5	58.6%	49.8%
Corners, last 5	7.2	5.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.232	0.268
On-target allowed per possession	0.056	0.087
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.111	0.164
Opponents' inside-box share	47.8%	64.2%
Save rate	74.3%	55.6%
Saves, last 5	2.2	2.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.35	1.10
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	447	440
Fouls, last 5	14.0	11.4
Cards, last 5	1.6	2.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	22
Home side won	16
Drawn	3
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	47
Goals, away side	18

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 79.6% · Draw 14.3% · Away 6.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.