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The data behind the ratings

Monday 2 November 2026 · everything below is a stored value, as it was that morning

Oviedo v Las Palmas

laliga-2 · 15:15 UK

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	8	13
Position last season	20	5
Points this season	18	14
Goal difference this season	+3	-5
Elo rating going in	1,519	1,499
Matches on record, all seasons	435	457
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	4
Goals scored, last 5	2.0	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	2.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.8
Clean sheets, last 10	4	4
Failed to score, last 10	2	2
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	3	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	9	9
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	16.8	9.0
Shots on target, last 5	6.8	3.2
Shots per possession	0.330	0.188
On-target shots per possession	0.114	0.067
Inside-box shots per possession	0.182	0.116
Share of shots from inside the box	53.6%	60.7%
Expected goals, last 5	1.75	0.58
Possession, last 5	48.8%	47.6%
Corners, last 5	6.4	3.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.271	0.273
On-target allowed per possession	0.084	0.098
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.185	0.195
Opponents' inside-box share	67.9%	70.0%
Save rate	68.8%	64.2%
Saves, last 5	3.8	3.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.74	1.38
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	397	416
Fouls, last 5	15.4	13.0
Cards, last 5	4.0	4.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	10
Home side won	3
Drawn	5
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	9
Goals, away side	9

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 55.8% · Draw 24.2% · Away 20.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Gençlerbirliği S.K. v Alanyaspor

super-lig · 17:00 UK

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	16	9
Position last season	14	10
Points this season	8	12
Goal difference this season	-11	-2
Elo rating going in	1,516	1,592
Matches on record, all seasons	355	367
Recent form
Points, last 5	1	5
Goals scored, last 5	0.6	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	2.2	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.0	1.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.8	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	2	3
Failed to score, last 10	4	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	2	2
Days since last match	8	10
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.8	13.2
Shots on target, last 5	3.4	4.6
Shots per possession	0.301	0.253
On-target shots per possession	0.097	0.082
Inside-box shots per possession	0.182	0.155
Share of shots from inside the box	57.9%	60.9%
Expected goals, last 5	0.88	1.04
Possession, last 5	43.0%	49.0%
Corners, last 5	6.6	5.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.308	0.277
On-target allowed per possession	0.122	0.093
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.218	0.171
Opponents' inside-box share	71.0%	60.3%
Save rate	72.4%	73.8%
Saves, last 5	3.8	3.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.95	1.92
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	75.8%	83.4%
Passes, last 5	313	410
Fouls, last 5	14.4	9.2
Cards, last 5	2.2	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	10
Home side won	3
Drawn	4
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	9
Goals, away side	13

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 35.5% · Draw 28.8% · Away 35.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Sassuolo v Fiorentina

serie-a · 17:30 UK

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	14	18
Position last season	11	13
Points this season	8	5
Goal difference this season	-8	-10
Elo rating going in	1,552	1,592
Matches on record, all seasons	465	617
Recent form
Points, last 5	1	2
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	3.0	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	2.3	2.2
Clean sheets, last 10	0	0
Failed to score, last 10	2	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	3	0
Days since last match	6	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	2.0	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	2.6	2.2
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.0	16.4
Shots on target, last 5	3.8	4.0
Shots per possession	0.282	0.343
On-target shots per possession	0.099	0.111
Inside-box shots per possession	0.157	0.206
Share of shots from inside the box	54.5%	59.0%
Expected goals, last 5	1.17	1.21
Possession, last 5	50.0%	49.6%
Corners, last 5	3.6	5.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.305	0.278
On-target allowed per possession	0.124	0.115
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.195	0.203
Opponents' inside-box share	67.2%	71.9%
Save rate	64.7%	66.3%
Saves, last 5	4.2	4.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.02	1.73
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	88.0%	84.0%
Passes, last 5	479	423
Fouls, last 5	9.4	11.4
Cards, last 5	1.4	2.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	24
Home side won	8
Drawn	7
Away side won	9
Goals, home side	34
Goals, away side	40

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 33.4% · Draw 25.5% · Away 41.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Valladolid v Leganes

laliga-2 · 17:30 UK

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	13	16
Position last season	16	16
Points this season	12	12
Goal difference this season	+0	-9
Elo rating going in	1,384	1,420
Matches on record, all seasons	491	413
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	1
Goals scored, last 5	2.6	0.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	2.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	0.6
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	2	3
Failed to score, last 10	2	6
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	2	0
Days since last match	10	9
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.2	11.2
Shots on target, last 5	6.8	2.0
Shots per possession	0.266	0.247
On-target shots per possession	0.110	0.076
Inside-box shots per possession	0.175	0.147
Share of shots from inside the box	63.8%	59.9%
Expected goals, last 5	1.95	1.29
Possession, last 5	50.0%	45.6%
Corners, last 5	6.4	4.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.249	0.307
On-target allowed per possession	0.085	0.093
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.143	0.202
Opponents' inside-box share	56.7%	65.0%
Save rate	67.8%	66.7%
Saves, last 5	2.8	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.46	1.44
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	408	375
Fouls, last 5	15.6	18.8
Cards, last 5	3.6	4.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	12
Home side won	4
Drawn	4
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	13
Goals, away side	17

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 47.1% · Draw 26.9% · Away 26.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Atalanta v Parma

serie-a · 19:45 UK

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	12	18
Position last season	7	12
Points this season	11	5
Goal difference this season	-1	-10
Elo rating going in	1,676	1,528
Matches on record, all seasons	579	389
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	4
Goals scored, last 5	2.2	0.6
Goals conceded, last 5	2.4	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.7	0.6
Goals conceded, last 10	1.8	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	1	2
Failed to score, last 10	1	5
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	2	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	4	5
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.4	11.4
Shots on target, last 5	6.2	3.6
Shots per possession	0.312	0.240
On-target shots per possession	0.115	0.077
Inside-box shots per possession	0.212	0.163
Share of shots from inside the box	67.1%	67.8%
Expected goals, last 5	1.90	0.90
Possession, last 5	42.8%	41.6%
Corners, last 5	5.0	3.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.341	0.276
On-target allowed per possession	0.113	0.079
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.210	0.186
Opponents' inside-box share	61.8%	65.6%
Save rate	70.5%	70.7%
Saves, last 5	3.4	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.94	1.62
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	91.0%	79.0%
Passes, last 5	413	366
Fouls, last 5	10.8	11.0
Cards, last 5	1.6	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	18
Home side won	11
Drawn	3
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	40
Goals, away side	22

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 63.7% · Draw 20.6% · Away 15.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Lorient v Stade Brestois 29

ligue-1 · 19:45 UK

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	9	11
Position last season	10	12
Points this season	12	9
Goal difference this season	+1	+2
Elo rating going in	1,563	1,553
Matches on record, all seasons	456	366
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	4
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	1.6
Goals conceded, last 10	0.8	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	6	0
Failed to score, last 10	3	1
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	3	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	8	10
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.0	12.8
Shots on target, last 5	2.8	4.8
Shots per possession	0.212	0.335
On-target shots per possession	0.073	0.116
Inside-box shots per possession	0.131	0.216
Share of shots from inside the box	62.6%	64.0%
Expected goals, last 5	1.00	2.44
Possession, last 5	44.8%	45.4%
Corners, last 5	4.0	3.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.227	0.208
On-target allowed per possession	0.075	0.073
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.152	0.125
Opponents' inside-box share	65.6%	60.1%
Save rate	77.0%	63.9%
Saves, last 5	3.8	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.66	1.40
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	477	425
Fouls, last 5	10.2	13.0
Cards, last 5	1.6	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	16
Home side won	7
Drawn	2
Away side won	7
Goals, home side	21
Goals, away side	23

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 38.7% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Deportivo La Coruna v Osasuna

la-liga · 20:00 UK

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	10	12
Position last season	2	16
Points this season	11	11
Goal difference this season	+0	-10
Elo rating going in	1,543	1,564
Matches on record, all seasons	408	550
Recent form
Points, last 5	2	4
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	2.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	1.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	2.0
Clean sheets, last 10	0	3
Failed to score, last 10	2	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	1
Days since last match	9	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	1.2
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	3.4
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.4	10.8
Shots on target, last 5	5.4	3.6
Shots per possession	0.256	0.230
On-target shots per possession	0.094	0.088
Inside-box shots per possession	0.173	0.154
Share of shots from inside the box	63.8%	67.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.63	2.07
Possession, last 5	49.2%	43.4%
Corners, last 5	6.4	3.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.261	0.250
On-target allowed per possession	0.084	0.079
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.130	0.130
Opponents' inside-box share	51.0%	47.3%
Save rate	69.3%	59.2%
Saves, last 5	2.8	3.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.29	1.48
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	449	376
Fouls, last 5	11.4	15.0
Cards, last 5	2.2	2.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	8
Home side won	3
Drawn	3
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	10
Goals, away side	6

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 44.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 26.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Mallorca v Cadiz

laliga-2 · 20:00 UK

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	5	18
Position last season	17	18
Points this season	19	10
Goal difference this season	+7	+0
Elo rating going in	1,570	1,365
Matches on record, all seasons	481	417
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	1.4
Goals conceded, last 10	0.6	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	5	1
Failed to score, last 10	4	3
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	4	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	9	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.8	12.4
Shots on target, last 5	3.8	3.8
Shots per possession	0.252	0.211
On-target shots per possession	0.080	0.064
Inside-box shots per possession	0.135	0.146
Share of shots from inside the box	56.4%	69.3%
Expected goals, last 5	1.29	0.89
Possession, last 5	51.6%	46.8%
Corners, last 5	6.2	4.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.231	0.265
On-target allowed per possession	0.073	0.076
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.140	0.170
Opponents' inside-box share	61.0%	63.4%
Save rate	81.2%	68.9%
Saves, last 5	3.2	1.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.83	1.34
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	432	402
Fouls, last 5	16.4	12.2
Cards, last 5	4.0	2.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	10
Home side won	3
Drawn	6
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	9
Goals, away side	8

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 63.7% · Draw 22.6% · Away 13.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Newcastle v Everton

premier-league · 20:00 UK

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	7	9
Position last season	12	13
Points this season	11	10
Goal difference this season	-2	-1
Elo rating going in	1,722	1,705
Matches on record, all seasons	624	616
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	5
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	0.6
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	0.9
Goals conceded, last 10	1.7	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	2	3
Failed to score, last 10	2	4
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	1	0
Losses in a row	0	2
Days since last match	8	9
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	0.6
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	1.2
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.8	12.4
Shots on target, last 5	3.8	4.0
Shots per possession	0.231	0.277
On-target shots per possession	0.069	0.093
Inside-box shots per possession	0.142	0.195
Share of shots from inside the box	61.8%	72.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.32	0.94
Possession, last 5	53.8%	48.8%
Corners, last 5	4.6	4.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.362	0.271
On-target allowed per possession	0.117	0.077
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.213	0.184
Opponents' inside-box share	59.9%	68.0%
Save rate	68.9%	63.9%
Saves, last 5	2.8	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.64	1.60
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	453	454
Fouls, last 5	10.2	7.8
Cards, last 5	2.6	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	30
Home side won	10
Drawn	5
Away side won	15
Goals, home side	39
Goals, away side	47

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 41.9% · Draw 27.0% · Away 31.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Benfica v Alverca

primeira-liga · 20:15 UK

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	2	8
Position last season	3	11
Points this season	22	11
Goal difference this season	+18	+0
Elo rating going in	1,897	1,580
Matches on record, all seasons	537	43
Recent form
Points, last 5	12	9
Goals scored, last 5	2.4	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	2.9	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	0.9	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	4	1
Failed to score, last 10	0	3
Wins in a row	2	0
Unbeaten run	2	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	7	9
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	3.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	17.8	12.6
Shots on target, last 5	5.0	4.2
Shots per possession	0.309	0.261
On-target shots per possession	0.106	0.080
Inside-box shots per possession	0.226	0.159
Share of shots from inside the box	72.1%	58.1%
Expected goals, last 5	2.33	1.68
Possession, last 5	63.4%	37.4%
Corners, last 5	7.6	3.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.231	0.198
On-target allowed per possession	0.072	0.062
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.154	0.110
Opponents' inside-box share	71.1%	51.5%
Save rate	68.7%	69.1%
Saves, last 5	2.2	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.04	1.23
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	544	320
Fouls, last 5	11.0	15.0
Cards, last 5	3.2	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	2
Drawn	0
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	4
Goals, away side	2

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 76.0% · Draw 14.3% · Away 9.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

GIL Vicente v Guimaraes

primeira-liga · 20:15 UK

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	6	11
Position last season	6	8
Points this season	14	8
Goal difference this season	+1	+0
Elo rating going in	1,595	1,575
Matches on record, all seasons	371	537
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	5
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	0.8	1.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.0	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	4	3
Failed to score, last 10	4	5
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	9	10
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	0.8	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	0.6	0.4
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.2	18.2
Shots on target, last 5	3.0	5.6
Shots per possession	0.242	0.307
On-target shots per possession	0.062	0.078
Inside-box shots per possession	0.136	0.191
Share of shots from inside the box	55.6%	62.1%
Expected goals, last 5	1.16	1.16
Possession, last 5	48.0%	58.0%
Corners, last 5	2.2	8.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.232	0.195
On-target allowed per possession	0.060	0.068
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.130	0.126
Opponents' inside-box share	52.4%	62.8%
Save rate	68.0%	62.6%
Saves, last 5	2.8	2.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.22	1.69
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	436	475
Fouls, last 5	13.4	15.0
Cards, last 5	2.4	3.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	22
Home side won	7
Drawn	6
Away side won	9
Goals, home side	25
Goals, away side	34

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 33.1% · Draw 31.4% · Away 35.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.