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The data behind the ratings

Tuesday 3 November 2026 · everything below is a stored value, as it was that morning

Galatasaray v VfB Stuttgart

champions-league · 17:45 UK

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	10
Position last season	1	4
Points this season	25	9
Goal difference this season	+11	-1
Elo rating going in	1,899	1,639
Matches on record, all seasons	544	488
Recent form
Points, last 5	12	6
Goals scored, last 5	2.0	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	2.3	1.9
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.8
Clean sheets, last 10	4	1
Failed to score, last 10	1	2
Wins in a row	4	1
Unbeaten run	4	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	4	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	2.4	1.6
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	2.0
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	19.0	16.8
Shots on target, last 5	6.8	6.0
Shots per possession	0.358	0.320
On-target shots per possession	0.127	0.126
Inside-box shots per possession	0.247	0.225
Share of shots from inside the box	69.5%	69.8%
Expected goals, last 5	2.00	2.16
Possession, last 5	60.4%	55.6%
Corners, last 5	8.4	5.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.264	0.374
On-target allowed per possession	0.084	0.126
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.176	0.248
Opponents' inside-box share	64.9%	65.9%
Save rate	66.7%	65.4%
Saves, last 5	2.2	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.11	2.02
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	85.6%	—
Passes, last 5	456	530
Fouls, last 5	12.2	10.2
Cards, last 5	1.8	1.6

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 44.5% · Draw 23.0% · Away 32.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Blackburn v Stoke City

championship · 19:45 UK

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	13	4
Position last season	22	17
Points this season	18	23
Goal difference this season	-1	+4
Elo rating going in	1,497	1,491
Matches on record, all seasons	733	685
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	10
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	1.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	0.7
Clean sheets, last 10	3	5
Failed to score, last 10	2	1
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	3
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	3	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.4	11.4
Shots on target, last 5	3.4	3.2
Shots per possession	0.262	0.266
On-target shots per possession	0.085	0.089
Inside-box shots per possession	0.170	0.156
Share of shots from inside the box	66.2%	58.3%
Expected goals, last 5	1.00	1.00
Possession, last 5	39.6%	47.2%
Corners, last 5	5.8	5.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.306	0.269
On-target allowed per possession	0.080	0.064
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.218	0.191
Opponents' inside-box share	69.8%	68.2%
Save rate	61.5%	76.3%
Saves, last 5	2.8	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.28	1.53
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	346	379
Fouls, last 5	11.8	9.2
Cards, last 5	1.6	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	20
Home side won	5
Drawn	4
Away side won	11
Goals, home side	19
Goals, away side	25

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 35.9% · Draw 28.9% · Away 35.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Charlton v Bolton

championship · 19:45 UK

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	20	19
Position last season	20	5
Points this season	14	14
Goal difference this season	-10	-8
Elo rating going in	1,460	1,476
Matches on record, all seasons	711	683
Recent form
Points, last 5	2	4
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	2.2	2.2
Goals scored, last 10	0.6	1.6
Goals conceded, last 10	1.9	2.4
Clean sheets, last 10	2	2
Failed to score, last 10	5	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	3	2
Days since last match	3	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.6
Scored away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.0	17.0
Shots on target, last 5	3.0	4.8
Shots per possession	0.233	0.281
On-target shots per possession	0.059	0.104
Inside-box shots per possession	0.168	0.192
Share of shots from inside the box	73.9%	67.7%
Expected goals, last 5	1.35	1.65
Possession, last 5	47.4%	49.6%
Corners, last 5	4.4	5.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.303	0.301
On-target allowed per possession	0.097	0.130
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.158	0.227
Opponents' inside-box share	51.4%	76.1%
Save rate	64.8%	65.4%
Saves, last 5	3.4	4.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.82	2.49
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	357	443
Fouls, last 5	14.8	9.0
Cards, last 5	2.6	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	18
Home side won	5
Drawn	7
Away side won	6
Goals, home side	23
Goals, away side	28

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 42.3% · Draw 26.5% · Away 31.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Derby v Norwich

championship · 19:45 UK

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	23	13
Position last season	8	9
Points this season	7	15
Goal difference this season	-14	-1
Elo rating going in	1,469	1,509
Matches on record, all seasons	713	660
Recent form
Points, last 5	2	6
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	2.2	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	0.8	1.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.8	1.8
Clean sheets, last 10	1	0
Failed to score, last 10	3	3
Wins in a row	0	2
Unbeaten run	0	2
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	3	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.2	12.8
Shots on target, last 5	4.2	4.2
Shots per possession	0.258	0.254
On-target shots per possession	0.076	0.093
Inside-box shots per possession	0.162	0.164
Share of shots from inside the box	60.6%	62.9%
Expected goals, last 5	1.00	1.05
Possession, last 5	46.4%	53.6%
Corners, last 5	4.6	4.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.284	0.242
On-target allowed per possession	0.115	0.094
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.204	0.170
Opponents' inside-box share	71.9%	69.2%
Save rate	66.2%	59.5%
Saves, last 5	4.6	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.97	1.51
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	379	444
Fouls, last 5	11.6	11.4
Cards, last 5	2.4	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	14
Home side won	5
Drawn	5
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	18
Goals, away side	19

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 27.4% · Draw 26.3% · Away 46.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Huddersfield v Luton

league-one · 19:45 UK

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	4
Position last season	9	7
Points this season	28	23
Goal difference this season	+16	+6
Elo rating going in	1,465	1,481
Matches on record, all seasons	695	378
Recent form
Points, last 5	13	12
Goals scored, last 5	2.6	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	2.1	1.8
Goals conceded, last 10	0.9	1.0
Clean sheets, last 10	3	2
Failed to score, last 10	1	1
Wins in a row	4	4
Unbeaten run	6	4
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	3	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.8	2.0
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.6	2.0
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	16.0	17.6
Shots on target, last 5	6.0	6.0
Shots per possession	0.334	0.307
On-target shots per possession	0.128	0.113
Inside-box shots per possession	0.270	0.226
Share of shots from inside the box	80.3%	73.7%
Expected goals, last 5	2.46	1.87
Possession, last 5	43.6%	49.6%
Corners, last 5	5.0	6.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.203	0.238
On-target allowed per possession	0.058	0.079
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.131	0.163
Opponents' inside-box share	62.4%	69.9%
Save rate	70.4%	70.1%
Saves, last 5	2.6	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.06	1.16
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	345	383
Fouls, last 5	14.6	12.2
Cards, last 5	2.4	1.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	12
Home side won	3
Drawn	5
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	13
Goals, away side	14

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 46.7% · Draw 25.1% · Away 28.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Portsmouth v Swansea

championship · 19:45 UK

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	11	3
Position last season	18	11
Points this season	19	26
Goal difference this season	+1	+7
Elo rating going in	1,520	1,575
Matches on record, all seasons	512	652
Recent form
Points, last 5	11	9
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	0.9	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	4	4
Failed to score, last 10	4	3
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	5	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	3	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Scored away, last 5 there	0.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.6	12.8
Shots on target, last 5	2.4	4.4
Shots per possession	0.258	0.214
On-target shots per possession	0.067	0.074
Inside-box shots per possession	0.165	0.118
Share of shots from inside the box	58.5%	53.7%
Expected goals, last 5	1.09	1.65
Possession, last 5	50.0%	58.4%
Corners, last 5	4.0	4.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.230	0.259
On-target allowed per possession	0.066	0.086
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.141	0.189
Opponents' inside-box share	61.9%	72.3%
Save rate	72.8%	64.2%
Saves, last 5	1.8	2.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.24	1.36
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	390	554
Fouls, last 5	9.2	11.0
Cards, last 5	2.2	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	1
Drawn	1
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	7
Goals, away side	5

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 35.1% · Draw 29.1% · Away 35.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Preston v Sheffield Utd

championship · 19:45 UK

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	24	10
Position last season	14	13
Points this season	5	19
Goal difference this season	-17	+2
Elo rating going in	1,418	1,530
Matches on record, all seasons	708	690
Recent form
Points, last 5	1	10
Goals scored, last 5	0.4	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	2.4	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	0.8	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	2.1	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	0	3
Failed to score, last 10	4	1
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	3
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	3	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.2	15.0
Shots on target, last 5	1.4	5.0
Shots per possession	0.313	0.255
On-target shots per possession	0.068	0.091
Inside-box shots per possession	0.219	0.174
Share of shots from inside the box	70.0%	65.5%
Expected goals, last 5	0.79	1.51
Possession, last 5	35.2%	50.6%
Corners, last 5	4.4	5.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.275	0.263
On-target allowed per possession	0.080	0.075
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.179	0.187
Opponents' inside-box share	66.7%	71.4%
Save rate	68.7%	66.1%
Saves, last 5	3.0	2.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.94	1.20
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	273	392
Fouls, last 5	12.2	9.4
Cards, last 5	1.8	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	20
Home side won	5
Drawn	5
Away side won	10
Goals, home side	21
Goals, away side	31

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 27.7% · Draw 25.5% · Away 46.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

QPR v Burnley

championship · 19:45 UK

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	9	22
Position last season	15	19
Points this season	20	9
Goal difference this season	+5	-8
Elo rating going in	1,506	1,529
Matches on record, all seasons	682	631
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	5
Goals scored, last 5	2.2	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.6
Clean sheets, last 10	2	2
Failed to score, last 10	3	1
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	3	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.4	15.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.2	4.8
Shots per possession	0.264	0.298
On-target shots per possession	0.089	0.090
Inside-box shots per possession	0.162	0.173
Share of shots from inside the box	63.8%	59.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.62	1.67
Possession, last 5	43.4%	46.4%
Corners, last 5	3.2	4.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.263	0.270
On-target allowed per possession	0.087	0.098
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.173	0.174
Opponents' inside-box share	65.6%	63.2%
Save rate	68.8%	60.7%
Saves, last 5	3.8	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.08	1.38
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	403	407
Fouls, last 5	9.6	9.2
Cards, last 5	2.6	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	10
Home side won	2
Drawn	3
Away side won	5
Goals, home side	8
Goals, away side	17

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 47.7% · Draw 25.3% · Away 27.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Watford v Lincoln

championship · 19:45 UK

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	21	16
Position last season	16	1
Points this season	11	15
Goal difference this season	-11	-9
Elo rating going in	1,436	1,547
Matches on record, all seasons	658	327
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	4
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	2.6	3.0
Goals scored, last 10	0.8	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	2.0	1.8
Clean sheets, last 10	1	3
Failed to score, last 10	5	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	2	1
Days since last match	3	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.6
Scored away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.4	11.8
Shots on target, last 5	5.0	3.8
Shots per possession	0.235	0.289
On-target shots per possession	0.082	0.083
Inside-box shots per possession	0.139	0.203
Share of shots from inside the box	57.6%	69.3%
Expected goals, last 5	1.24	1.21
Possession, last 5	44.6%	41.2%
Corners, last 5	3.0	2.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.340	0.264
On-target allowed per possession	0.118	0.095
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.231	0.150
Opponents' inside-box share	69.5%	58.1%
Save rate	70.4%	56.1%
Saves, last 5	3.8	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.00	2.03
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	366	296
Fouls, last 5	10.0	11.6
Cards, last 5	2.2	2.8

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 37.4% · Draw 27.2% · Away 35.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Wigan v Mansfield Town

league-one · 19:45 UK

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	21	11
Position last season	16	10
Points this season	10	18
Goal difference this season	-11	+2
Elo rating going in	1,336	1,423
Matches on record, all seasons	727	104
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	10
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	0.9	1.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.6	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	2	2
Failed to score, last 10	5	4
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	1	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	3	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.4	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.6	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.6	17.8
Shots on target, last 5	3.6	5.0
Shots per possession	0.221	0.305
On-target shots per possession	0.060	0.090
Inside-box shots per possession	0.133	0.238
Share of shots from inside the box	58.7%	76.9%
Expected goals, last 5	1.15	2.27
Possession, last 5	48.2%	52.6%
Corners, last 5	3.4	8.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.327	0.253
On-target allowed per possession	0.100	0.081
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.233	0.146
Opponents' inside-box share	70.7%	56.3%
Save rate	69.1%	64.5%
Saves, last 5	3.6	2.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.37	0.89
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	411	393
Fouls, last 5	12.2	11.4
Cards, last 5	3.2	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	1
Drawn	2
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	4
Goals, away side	4

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 28.9% · Draw 26.2% · Away 44.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Atletico Madrid v Bayern München

champions-league · 20:00 UK

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	1
Position last season	4	1
Points this season	28	18
Goal difference this season	+14	+19
Elo rating going in	1,774	1,862
Matches on record, all seasons	619	552
Recent form
Points, last 5	15	11
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	4.0
Goals conceded, last 5	0.4	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	2.0	3.3
Goals conceded, last 10	0.8	0.9
Clean sheets, last 10	5	3
Failed to score, last 10	1	1
Wins in a row	7	0
Unbeaten run	7	23
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	3	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	5.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	18.0	24.4
Shots on target, last 5	6.2	11.2
Shots per possession	0.294	0.338
On-target shots per possession	0.101	0.142
Inside-box shots per possession	0.159	0.213
Share of shots from inside the box	54.5%	63.0%
Expected goals, last 5	1.42	4.02
Possession, last 5	62.0%	62.4%
Corners, last 5	6.2	8.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.288	0.297
On-target allowed per possession	0.088	0.098
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.181	0.208
Opponents' inside-box share	62.8%	68.7%
Save rate	74.4%	73.5%
Saves, last 5	3.0	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.20	1.30
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	620	617
Fouls, last 5	12.0	11.0
Cards, last 5	2.8	1.0

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 35.3% · Draw 24.4% · Away 40.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Barcelona v Aston Villa

champions-league · 20:00 UK

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	9
Position last season	1	4
Points this season	30	12
Goal difference this season	+34	-3
Elo rating going in	1,897	1,786
Matches on record, all seasons	619	647
Recent form
Points, last 5	12	11
Goals scored, last 5	3.6	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	4.1	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	3	2
Failed to score, last 10	0	3
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	1	5
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	3	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	4.4	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.4	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	19.2	14.8
Shots on target, last 5	7.6	4.2
Shots per possession	0.296	0.263
On-target shots per possession	0.115	0.070
Inside-box shots per possession	0.201	0.177
Share of shots from inside the box	68.5%	67.2%
Expected goals, last 5	2.42	1.49
Possession, last 5	72.2%	44.2%
Corners, last 5	5.4	3.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.252	0.302
On-target allowed per possession	0.120	0.089
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.165	0.202
Opponents' inside-box share	65.4%	69.3%
Save rate	62.4%	72.2%
Saves, last 5	2.2	3.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.05	1.61
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	746	383
Fouls, last 5	12.0	11.8
Cards, last 5	1.8	2.2

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 76.3% · Draw 13.3% · Away 10.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Birmingham v Millwall

championship · 20:00 UK

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	3	12
Position last season	10	3
Points this season	23	18
Goal difference this season	+10	+2
Elo rating going in	1,578	1,571
Matches on record, all seasons	743	711
Recent form
Points, last 5	12	7
Goals scored, last 5	2.2	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	0.4	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.9	1.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.0	1.6
Clean sheets, last 10	3	2
Failed to score, last 10	1	2
Wins in a row	1	1
Unbeaten run	1	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	3	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.6	13.6
Shots on target, last 5	5.2	4.6
Shots per possession	0.287	0.320
On-target shots per possession	0.108	0.107
Inside-box shots per possession	0.206	0.256
Share of shots from inside the box	74.0%	76.5%
Expected goals, last 5	1.84	1.72
Possession, last 5	53.6%	58.8%
Corners, last 5	4.2	7.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.272	0.276
On-target allowed per possession	0.079	0.071
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.188	0.177
Opponents' inside-box share	69.3%	65.3%
Save rate	70.3%	65.4%
Saves, last 5	3.0	1.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.37	1.09
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	439	403
Fouls, last 5	12.2	11.2
Cards, last 5	2.2	3.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	24
Home side won	8
Drawn	8
Away side won	8
Goals, home side	35
Goals, away side	26

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 48.4% · Draw 26.0% · Away 25.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Feyenoord v Inter

champions-league · 20:00 UK

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	2
Position last season	2	1
Points this season	25	25
Goal difference this season	+21	+13
Elo rating going in	1,759	1,867
Matches on record, all seasons	550	618
Recent form
Points, last 5	11	12
Goals scored, last 5	2.6	2.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	3.2	2.6
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	3	3
Failed to score, last 10	0	0
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	20	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	3	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	2.4	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.0	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	1.8
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	1.2
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	17.6	20.8
Shots on target, last 5	8.4	7.0
Shots per possession	0.367	0.351
On-target shots per possession	0.156	0.115
Inside-box shots per possession	0.262	0.251
Share of shots from inside the box	72.0%	71.3%
Expected goals, last 5	2.48	2.56
Possession, last 5	53.0%	62.0%
Corners, last 5	6.4	6.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.266	0.274
On-target allowed per possession	0.089	0.095
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.150	0.176
Opponents' inside-box share	53.6%	64.1%
Save rate	69.5%	66.7%
Saves, last 5	3.4	2.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.34	0.84
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	511	618
Fouls, last 5	9.0	12.0
Cards, last 5	2.0	1.2

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 25.4% · Draw 22.8% · Away 51.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Manchester United v AS Roma

champions-league · 20:00 UK

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	16	3
Position last season	3	3
Points this season	7	24
Goal difference this season	-5	+18
Elo rating going in	1,762	1,789
Matches on record, all seasons	617	618
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	11
Goals scored, last 5	0.6	2.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	2.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	1.0
Clean sheets, last 10	1	5
Failed to score, last 10	4	1
Wins in a row	0	2
Unbeaten run	0	17
Losses in a row	2	0
Days since last match	3	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	2.8
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	1.0
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	16.6	16.4
Shots on target, last 5	4.6	5.6
Shots per possession	0.329	0.325
On-target shots per possession	0.100	0.109
Inside-box shots per possession	0.182	0.224
Share of shots from inside the box	55.0%	69.4%
Expected goals, last 5	1.04	2.06
Possession, last 5	48.8%	55.0%
Corners, last 5	6.4	5.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.257	0.279
On-target allowed per possession	0.103	0.107
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.188	0.168
Opponents' inside-box share	71.0%	59.6%
Save rate	68.2%	72.2%
Saves, last 5	4.0	4.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.02	1.80
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	494	533
Fouls, last 5	11.2	9.4
Cards, last 5	3.0	2.2

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 42.4% · Draw 23.6% · Away 34.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Villarreal v Paris Saint Germain

champions-league · 20:00 UK

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	10	1
Position last season	3	1
Points this season	12	20
Goal difference this season	+0	+11
Elo rating going in	1,683	1,821
Matches on record, all seasons	581	594
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	15
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	3.0
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	2.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	1	2
Failed to score, last 10	4	0
Wins in a row	0	6
Unbeaten run	0	6
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	4	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.4	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	2.6
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	1.0
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	17.8	20.6
Shots on target, last 5	5.0	9.0
Shots per possession	0.275	0.278
On-target shots per possession	0.094	0.108
Inside-box shots per possession	0.181	0.164
Share of shots from inside the box	65.8%	59.4%
Expected goals, last 5	1.32	3.03
Possession, last 5	59.8%	69.0%
Corners, last 5	7.2	5.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.270	0.366
On-target allowed per possession	0.093	0.148
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.169	0.236
Opponents' inside-box share	62.2%	60.3%
Save rate	65.5%	72.7%
Saves, last 5	2.0	4.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.80	1.45
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	544	709
Fouls, last 5	11.6	6.2
Cards, last 5	2.4	0.6

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 21.6% · Draw 21.1% · Away 57.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

West Brom v Southampton

championship · 20:00 UK

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	5	2
Position last season	19	4
Points this season	24	27
Goal difference this season	+5	+15
Elo rating going in	1,538	1,644
Matches on record, all seasons	681	612
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	13
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	0.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	1.9
Goals conceded, last 10	0.9	0.9
Clean sheets, last 10	2	3
Failed to score, last 10	2	1
Wins in a row	1	2
Unbeaten run	4	5
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	3	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	16.0	14.0
Shots on target, last 5	3.4	5.0
Shots per possession	0.218	0.272
On-target shots per possession	0.057	0.094
Inside-box shots per possession	0.154	0.198
Share of shots from inside the box	69.3%	73.7%
Expected goals, last 5	2.01	1.66
Possession, last 5	58.6%	52.4%
Corners, last 5	7.4	5.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.288	0.340
On-target allowed per possession	0.093	0.096
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.215	0.235
Opponents' inside-box share	73.9%	67.4%
Save rate	74.4%	79.5%
Saves, last 5	3.0	4.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.34	1.14
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	513	470
Fouls, last 5	8.8	8.4
Cards, last 5	1.4	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	20
Home side won	5
Drawn	4
Away side won	11
Goals, home side	18
Goals, away side	24

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 38.3% · Draw 26.5% · Away 35.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.