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The data behind the ratings

Wednesday 4 November 2026 · everything below is a stored value, as it was that morning

Fenerbahçe v Liverpool

champions-league · 17:45 UK

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	5	5
Position last season	2	5
Points this season	16	15
Goal difference this season	+14	+2
Elo rating going in	1,819	1,820
Matches on record, all seasons	544	617
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	9
Goals scored, last 5	3.2	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	2.4	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.0	1.0
Clean sheets, last 10	5	4
Failed to score, last 10	1	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	2	1
Days since last match	4	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	3.4	0.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.2	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	16.6	15.2
Shots on target, last 5	6.8	3.6
Shots per possession	0.312	0.307
On-target shots per possession	0.128	0.091
Inside-box shots per possession	0.228	0.191
Share of shots from inside the box	71.1%	61.7%
Expected goals, last 5	2.35	1.16
Possession, last 5	53.4%	48.2%
Corners, last 5	5.2	5.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.311	0.272
On-target allowed per possession	0.112	0.069
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.168	0.179
Opponents' inside-box share	53.8%	65.6%
Save rate	75.3%	67.4%
Saves, last 5	5.0	1.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.35	1.17
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	83.0%	—
Passes, last 5	447	413
Fouls, last 5	12.2	15.2
Cards, last 5	1.8	2.4

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 15.8% · Draw 19.0% · Away 65.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Cardiff v West Ham

championship · 19:45 UK

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	17	8
Position last season	2	18
Points this season	14	22
Goal difference this season	-1	+15
Elo rating going in	1,495	1,652
Matches on record, all seasons	691	632
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	2.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	2.9
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	1	4
Failed to score, last 10	3	0
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	2
Days since last match	4	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.6	19.0
Shots on target, last 5	5.4	7.4
Shots per possession	0.286	0.312
On-target shots per possession	0.107	0.131
Inside-box shots per possession	0.196	0.215
Share of shots from inside the box	69.9%	70.7%
Expected goals, last 5	1.82	1.72
Possession, last 5	54.4%	58.0%
Corners, last 5	4.8	7.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.334	0.261
On-target allowed per possession	0.124	0.074
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.238	0.170
Opponents' inside-box share	71.7%	61.8%
Save rate	66.7%	58.9%
Saves, last 5	3.8	1.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.73	1.28
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	450	483
Fouls, last 5	9.2	12.0
Cards, last 5	1.4	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	8
Home side won	2
Drawn	0
Away side won	6
Goals, home side	4
Goals, away side	14

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 28.7% · Draw 22.6% · Away 48.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Oxford United v Reading

league-one · 19:45 UK

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	3	4
Position last season	23	12
Points this season	23	22
Goal difference this season	+9	+12
Elo rating going in	1,483	1,432
Matches on record, all seasons	469	698
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	10
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	0.6	0.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	1.7
Goals conceded, last 10	0.8	0.9
Clean sheets, last 10	4	3
Failed to score, last 10	1	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	9	3
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	4	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.8	1.6
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	1.2
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	18.4	13.0
Shots on target, last 5	5.2	4.6
Shots per possession	0.289	0.335
On-target shots per possession	0.098	0.111
Inside-box shots per possession	0.161	0.227
Share of shots from inside the box	54.7%	69.4%
Expected goals, last 5	1.87	1.84
Possession, last 5	52.0%	46.0%
Corners, last 5	7.0	5.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.309	0.252
On-target allowed per possession	0.063	0.074
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.211	0.144
Opponents' inside-box share	65.0%	56.6%
Save rate	71.7%	72.3%
Saves, last 5	2.4	4.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.77	1.30
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	428	336
Fouls, last 5	11.2	10.6
Cards, last 5	1.8	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	0
Drawn	2
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	2
Goals, away side	2

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 36.4% · Draw 25.8% · Away 37.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Wrexham v Middlesbrough

championship · 19:45 UK

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	17	1
Position last season	7	5
Points this season	14	28
Goal difference this season	-4	+13
Elo rating going in	1,533	1,604
Matches on record, all seasons	105	705
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	13
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	2.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	2.4
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	2	3
Failed to score, last 10	4	0
Wins in a row	0	2
Unbeaten run	0	11
Losses in a row	2	0
Days since last match	5	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	0.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.4	23.2
Shots on target, last 5	3.0	9.0
Shots per possession	0.246	0.362
On-target shots per possession	0.059	0.131
Inside-box shots per possession	0.184	0.236
Share of shots from inside the box	74.5%	64.7%
Expected goals, last 5	1.23	2.48
Possession, last 5	52.0%	58.8%
Corners, last 5	5.8	7.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.273	0.276
On-target allowed per possession	0.086	0.081
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.168	0.194
Opponents' inside-box share	61.7%	67.7%
Save rate	62.8%	68.7%
Saves, last 5	2.0	1.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.02	0.73
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	431	511
Fouls, last 5	11.0	9.6
Cards, last 5	1.6	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	0
Drawn	2
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	3
Goals, away side	3

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 22.6% · Draw 22.7% · Away 54.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Borussia Dortmund v Real Betis

champions-league · 20:00 UK

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	2	4
Position last season	2	5
Points this season	18	23
Goal difference this season	+8	+3
Elo rating going in	1,752	1,722
Matches on record, all seasons	552	543
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	8
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.9	1.7
Goals conceded, last 10	0.8	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	6	4
Failed to score, last 10	1	1
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	10	2
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	4	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.8	15.0
Shots on target, last 5	4.8	4.8
Shots per possession	0.277	0.324
On-target shots per possession	0.110	0.120
Inside-box shots per possession	0.200	0.196
Share of shots from inside the box	72.8%	57.1%
Expected goals, last 5	1.56	1.72
Possession, last 5	56.2%	51.0%
Corners, last 5	6.2	5.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.257	0.331
On-target allowed per possession	0.071	0.127
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.146	0.217
Opponents' inside-box share	54.9%	64.1%
Save rate	73.0%	70.0%
Saves, last 5	2.6	4.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.88	1.79
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	543	533
Fouls, last 5	10.0	10.4
Cards, last 5	2.2	2.0

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 55.0% · Draw 22.7% · Away 22.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Bristol City v Wolves

championship · 20:00 UK

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	14	4
Position last season	12	20
Points this season	18	24
Goal difference this season	-2	+7
Elo rating going in	1,511	1,596
Matches on record, all seasons	705	669
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	10
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	1.4
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	2	4
Failed to score, last 10	4	1
Wins in a row	1	2
Unbeaten run	2	4
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	4	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.4	18.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	4.0
Shots per possession	0.325	0.303
On-target shots per possession	0.105	0.077
Inside-box shots per possession	0.226	0.204
Share of shots from inside the box	67.3%	67.0%
Expected goals, last 5	1.66	1.75
Possession, last 5	45.4%	55.0%
Corners, last 5	5.6	7.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.206	0.215
On-target allowed per possession	0.055	0.079
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.132	0.130
Opponents' inside-box share	62.2%	58.7%
Save rate	62.3%	75.8%
Saves, last 5	1.8	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.11	0.90
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	365	454
Fouls, last 5	11.0	12.6
Cards, last 5	1.0	3.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	10
Home side won	2
Drawn	1
Away side won	7
Goals, home side	15
Goals, away side	22

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 27.8% · Draw 27.2% · Away 45.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

FC Porto v Napoli

champions-league · 20:00 UK

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	8
Position last season	1	2
Points this season	30	14
Goal difference this season	+21	+4
Elo rating going in	1,911	1,741
Matches on record, all seasons	538	618
Recent form
Points, last 5	15	7
Goals scored, last 5	2.8	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	0.6	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	2.5	1.7
Goals conceded, last 10	0.4	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	6	3
Failed to score, last 10	0	2
Wins in a row	11	0
Unbeaten run	11	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	4	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	2.6	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	0.4	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	1.6
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	18.4	17.4
Shots on target, last 5	7.0	7.0
Shots per possession	0.295	0.289
On-target shots per possession	0.121	0.105
Inside-box shots per possession	0.200	0.208
Share of shots from inside the box	68.9%	67.6%
Expected goals, last 5	2.15	2.11
Possession, last 5	57.8%	55.6%
Corners, last 5	7.0	5.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.230	0.329
On-target allowed per possession	0.056	0.086
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.115	0.190
Opponents' inside-box share	50.4%	57.2%
Save rate	74.3%	67.8%
Saves, last 5	2.0	2.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.45	1.15
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	451	536
Fouls, last 5	14.4	7.6
Cards, last 5	1.6	1.0

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 48.7% · Draw 26.1% · Away 25.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Lens v Como

champions-league · 20:00 UK

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	8	4
Position last season	2	4
Points this season	13	23
Goal difference this season	+3	+10
Elo rating going in	1,672	1,744
Matches on record, all seasons	301	86
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	13
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	0.4
Goals scored, last 10	2.0	1.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	0.8
Clean sheets, last 10	1	3
Failed to score, last 10	2	2
Wins in a row	0	4
Unbeaten run	0	5
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	5	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.8	17.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	5.4
Shots per possession	0.261	0.325
On-target shots per possession	0.105	0.103
Inside-box shots per possession	0.191	0.210
Share of shots from inside the box	73.8%	64.4%
Expected goals, last 5	1.05	1.78
Possession, last 5	49.8%	62.8%
Corners, last 5	5.4	6.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.231	0.339
On-target allowed per possession	0.093	0.087
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.160	0.206
Opponents' inside-box share	71.0%	58.6%
Save rate	72.7%	70.5%
Saves, last 5	3.8	2.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.12	1.02
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	487	640
Fouls, last 5	13.2	8.6
Cards, last 5	1.8	1.6

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 30.3% · Draw 24.1% · Away 45.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

RB Leipzig v Manchester City

champions-league · 20:00 UK

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	4	1
Position last season	3	2
Points this season	15	21
Goal difference this season	+11	+10
Elo rating going in	1,678	1,910
Matches on record, all seasons	348	617
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	9
Goals scored, last 5	2.6	2.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	2.5	2.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.6	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	5	3
Failed to score, last 10	1	1
Wins in a row	2	0
Unbeaten run	2	0
Losses in a row	0	2
Days since last match	4	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	3.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.0	17.2
Shots on target, last 5	6.6	5.8
Shots per possession	0.305	0.244
On-target shots per possession	0.123	0.083
Inside-box shots per possession	0.217	0.180
Share of shots from inside the box	69.6%	71.8%
Expected goals, last 5	2.80	2.11
Possession, last 5	49.6%	63.0%
Corners, last 5	4.6	5.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.291	0.298
On-target allowed per possession	0.126	0.106
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.185	0.203
Opponents' inside-box share	62.6%	70.3%
Save rate	71.0%	67.3%
Saves, last 5	5.2	2.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.56	1.10
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	474	589
Fouls, last 5	11.2	12.4
Cards, last 5	1.0	1.4

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 18.3% · Draw 19.4% · Away 62.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.