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The data behind the ratings

Friday 6 November 2026 · everything below is a stored value, as it was that morning

Gaziantep FK v Kasımpaşa

super-lig · 17:00 UK

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	15	5
Position last season	12	13
Points this season	8	17
Goal difference this season	-8	+4
Elo rating going in	1,526	1,626
Matches on record, all seasons	266	504
Recent form
Points, last 5	0	8
Goals scored, last 5	0.4	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	2.4	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	0.9	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.7	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	2	3
Failed to score, last 10	4	1
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	3
Losses in a row	5	0
Days since last match	5	5
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.0	14.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.4	4.8
Shots per possession	0.266	0.297
On-target shots per possession	0.083	0.097
Inside-box shots per possession	0.159	0.156
Share of shots from inside the box	59.2%	50.7%
Expected goals, last 5	1.05	1.09
Possession, last 5	51.8%	44.6%
Corners, last 5	4.6	5.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.293	0.243
On-target allowed per possession	0.089	0.081
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.195	0.157
Opponents' inside-box share	65.2%	63.3%
Save rate	59.8%	73.4%
Saves, last 5	3.0	4.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.49	1.28
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	84.4%	77.2%
Passes, last 5	476	355
Fouls, last 5	11.0	17.2
Cards, last 5	2.2	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	14
Home side won	6
Drawn	4
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	28
Goals, away side	24

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 36.8% · Draw 28.1% · Away 35.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Willem II v PEC Zwolle

eredivisie · 19:00 UK

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	18	14
Position last season	—	15
Points this season	2	11
Goal difference this season	-29	-11
Elo rating going in	1,362	1,495
Matches on record, all seasons	383	449
Recent form
Points, last 5	0	7
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	4.0	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	0.9	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	3.5	2.1
Clean sheets, last 10	0	2
Failed to score, last 10	3	3
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	3
Losses in a row	6	0
Days since last match	6	5
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	3.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.4	15.2
Shots on target, last 5	2.4	5.2
Shots per possession	0.258	0.307
On-target shots per possession	0.068	0.105
Inside-box shots per possession	0.181	0.188
Share of shots from inside the box	72.3%	59.1%
Expected goals, last 5	1.06	1.33
Possession, last 5	44.2%	41.8%
Corners, last 5	5.2	5.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.350	0.304
On-target allowed per possession	0.130	0.105
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.248	0.197
Opponents' inside-box share	70.5%	63.8%
Save rate	56.5%	66.7%
Saves, last 5	3.4	3.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.36	1.46
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	374	357
Fouls, last 5	11.0	11.4
Cards, last 5	2.2	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	20
Home side won	7
Drawn	3
Away side won	10
Goals, home side	18
Goals, away side	23

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 33.0% · Draw 24.5% · Away 42.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Hamburger SV v Borussia Mönchengladbach

bundesliga · 19:30 UK

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	15	18
Position last season	13	12
Points this season	9	4
Goal difference this season	-12	-11
Elo rating going in	1,500	1,498
Matches on record, all seasons	318	552
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	4
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	1.6
Goals conceded, last 10	2.2	2.5
Clean sheets, last 10	1	2
Failed to score, last 10	4	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	2
Losses in a row	2	0
Days since last match	5	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.2	14.8
Shots on target, last 5	3.6	5.4
Shots per possession	0.291	0.308
On-target shots per possession	0.090	0.103
Inside-box shots per possession	0.168	0.202
Share of shots from inside the box	55.2%	63.8%
Expected goals, last 5	1.08	1.37
Possession, last 5	40.2%	44.0%
Corners, last 5	4.0	4.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.305	0.317
On-target allowed per possession	0.110	0.151
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.200	0.230
Opponents' inside-box share	63.0%	72.0%
Save rate	67.9%	67.0%
Saves, last 5	5.0	4.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.51	1.46
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	322	383
Fouls, last 5	13.0	13.2
Cards, last 5	2.0	3.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	18
Home side won	6
Drawn	7
Away side won	5
Goals, home side	20
Goals, away side	20

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 39.1% · Draw 26.2% · Away 34.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Toulouse v Strasbourg

ligue-1 · 19:45 UK

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	11	12
Position last season	9	8
Points this season	10	10
Goal difference this season	-1	-2
Elo rating going in	1,566	1,611
Matches on record, all seasons	521	328
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	3
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	2.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	2.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	2.3
Clean sheets, last 10	3	0
Failed to score, last 10	5	2
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	5	5
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.2	12.8
Shots on target, last 5	4.8	4.4
Shots per possession	0.229	0.293
On-target shots per possession	0.083	0.117
Inside-box shots per possession	0.161	0.195
Share of shots from inside the box	69.9%	63.7%
Expected goals, last 5	1.45	1.55
Possession, last 5	52.4%	49.4%
Corners, last 5	3.8	3.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.246	0.303
On-target allowed per possession	0.068	0.111
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.142	0.195
Opponents' inside-box share	51.8%	63.3%
Save rate	67.3%	65.4%
Saves, last 5	1.8	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.94	1.65
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	535	488
Fouls, last 5	15.0	12.0
Cards, last 5	2.6	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	14
Home side won	3
Drawn	4
Away side won	7
Goals, home side	16
Goals, away side	22

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 45.8% · Draw 26.0% · Away 28.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Venezia v Udinese

serie-a · 19:45 UK

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	20	19
Position last season	—	10
Points this season	3	5
Goal difference this season	-14	-12
Elo rating going in	1,452	1,542
Matches on record, all seasons	86	618
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	1
Goals scored, last 5	0.4	0.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	2.4
Goals scored, last 10	0.6	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	2.0	2.3
Clean sheets, last 10	1	1
Failed to score, last 10	6	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	3	1
Days since last match	5	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.6
Scored away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.2	15.2
Shots on target, last 5	3.6	4.0
Shots per possession	0.276	0.288
On-target shots per possession	0.084	0.096
Inside-box shots per possession	0.165	0.171
Share of shots from inside the box	60.5%	60.3%
Expected goals, last 5	1.39	1.06
Possession, last 5	43.2%	54.6%
Corners, last 5	4.2	4.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.346	0.308
On-target allowed per possession	0.140	0.131
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.232	0.214
Opponents' inside-box share	64.0%	67.4%
Save rate	67.5%	65.1%
Saves, last 5	4.8	4.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.83	2.75
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	435	494
Fouls, last 5	7.6	11.2
Cards, last 5	1.2	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	1
Drawn	0
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	6
Goals, away side	10

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 41.8% · Draw 27.8% · Away 30.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Derby v Bolton

championship · 20:00 UK

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	23	16
Position last season	8	5
Points this season	7	17
Goal difference this season	-18	-7
Elo rating going in	1,458	1,487
Matches on record, all seasons	714	684
Recent form
Points, last 5	1	7
Goals scored, last 5	0.6	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	2.8	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	0.6	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	2.2	2.1
Clean sheets, last 10	0	3
Failed to score, last 10	4	2
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	2	0
Days since last match	3	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	0.4	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.8	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	1.6
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.4	13.2
Shots on target, last 5	3.8	4.4
Shots per possession	0.245	0.279
On-target shots per possession	0.073	0.100
Inside-box shots per possession	0.156	0.189
Share of shots from inside the box	62.9%	67.3%
Expected goals, last 5	1.03	1.19
Possession, last 5	46.6%	44.6%
Corners, last 5	5.2	4.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.291	0.296
On-target allowed per possession	0.118	0.120
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.206	0.222
Opponents' inside-box share	71.0%	75.6%
Save rate	64.6%	66.3%
Saves, last 5	5.0	4.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.07	2.53
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	380	404
Fouls, last 5	11.6	10.0
Cards, last 5	2.0	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	16
Home side won	8
Drawn	5
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	26
Goals, away side	12

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 37.8% · Draw 26.0% · Away 36.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Everton v Coventry

premier-league · 20:00 UK

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	7	15
Position last season	13	1
Points this season	13	9
Goal difference this season	+0	-7
Elo rating going in	1,717	1,630
Matches on record, all seasons	617	646
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	9
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	0.9	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.0	1.6
Clean sheets, last 10	4	2
Failed to score, last 10	4	5
Wins in a row	1	1
Unbeaten run	1	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	4	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.2	11.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.4	3.2
Shots per possession	0.289	0.312
On-target shots per possession	0.095	0.097
Inside-box shots per possession	0.206	0.196
Share of shots from inside the box	73.4%	58.3%
Expected goals, last 5	1.29	0.92
Possession, last 5	50.8%	36.6%
Corners, last 5	4.6	3.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.290	0.268
On-target allowed per possession	0.075	0.070
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.188	0.172
Opponents' inside-box share	65.0%	64.7%
Save rate	68.4%	55.9%
Saves, last 5	2.8	2.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.54	1.31
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	457	313
Fouls, last 5	8.0	10.4
Cards, last 5	2.0	1.2

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 56.3% · Draw 23.9% · Away 19.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Sevilla v Alaves

la-liga · 20:00 UK

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	6	10
Position last season	15	14
Points this season	17	12
Goal difference this season	-2	-2
Elo rating going in	1,591	1,572
Matches on record, all seasons	619	399
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	2
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	2.6	2.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.8	1.7
Clean sheets, last 10	3	2
Failed to score, last 10	0	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	1
Days since last match	5	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	0.8
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.2	2.2
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.0	11.0
Shots on target, last 5	4.8	3.8
Shots per possession	0.292	0.285
On-target shots per possession	0.111	0.097
Inside-box shots per possession	0.186	0.181
Share of shots from inside the box	62.6%	58.5%
Expected goals, last 5	1.32	1.13
Possession, last 5	41.2%	40.2%
Corners, last 5	2.8	3.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.217	0.208
On-target allowed per possession	0.083	0.079
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.126	0.128
Opponents' inside-box share	54.4%	64.4%
Save rate	63.3%	65.2%
Saves, last 5	3.4	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.69	1.71
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	352	355
Fouls, last 5	14.0	13.2
Cards, last 5	2.8	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	18
Home side won	7
Drawn	7
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	24
Goals, away side	20

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 50.5% · Draw 27.4% · Away 22.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Famalicao v Arouca

primeira-liga · 20:45 UK

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	11	4
Position last season	5	9
Points this season	10	20
Goal difference this season	+0	+6
Elo rating going in	1,629	1,621
Matches on record, all seasons	248	314
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	10
Goals scored, last 5	2.0	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	0.7
Clean sheets, last 10	3	6
Failed to score, last 10	3	2
Wins in a row	0	3
Unbeaten run	0	4
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	5	5
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Scored away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.2	12.2
Shots on target, last 5	3.4	4.2
Shots per possession	0.183	0.212
On-target shots per possession	0.062	0.075
Inside-box shots per possession	0.088	0.120
Share of shots from inside the box	47.6%	57.1%
Expected goals, last 5	0.77	1.19
Possession, last 5	45.0%	56.0%
Corners, last 5	3.6	4.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.266	0.274
On-target allowed per possession	0.074	0.080
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.178	0.175
Opponents' inside-box share	64.4%	64.6%
Save rate	63.5%	77.0%
Saves, last 5	2.4	1.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.59	0.75
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	404	503
Fouls, last 5	11.8	12.2
Cards, last 5	2.6	3.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	10
Home side won	3
Drawn	3
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	9
Goals, away side	12

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 44.3% · Draw 28.3% · Away 27.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.